Installations in California, measured in terms of Megawatts (MW) of electricity production, are set to rise by 120.1 percent in 2009, compared to a 26.9 percent decline for the entire world. California’s outperformance is expected to continue in 2010 even as global installation growth will resume, as presented in the figure.
iSuppli: Photovoltaic Percentage Growth Installation Forecast in California and Worldwide 2008-2013 in Megawatts
Source: iSuppli, Sept. 2009“The market for PV solar energy systems has been severely impacted by the ongoing economic crisis gripping the world,” said Dr. Henning Wicht, senior director and principal analyst for PV at iSuppli.
“The debt financing of solar plants for commercial customers and investor syndicates has slowed dramatically across Europe, the United States and other regions that had been steadily growing in solar installations prior to the fourth quarter of 2008.
Wicht said, however, that those looking to install PV systems in the country have been helped by the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009—also known as the stimulus program—as well as the Solar Investment Tax Credit of 2008.
The government programs allowed 30 percent of a project’s cost to be rebated and also created loan guarantees for commercial projects. Because of this, iSuppli believes these initiatives will help offset, to a limited degree, the negative factors that have impacted the US PV market.
The new sunshine state
In particular, California has taken advantage of these incentives, causing installations in the state to rise even during the worst phases of the economic downturn.
At the height of the credit crunch in the first quarter, California’s installations increased to 77MW, up from just 38MW during the same period in 2008. Applications for rebates continued to increase, reaching 65MW in the second quarter, with only half the quarter counted in this data.
“This is a very encouraging sign for the solar market,” Wicht said. “It’s extremely beneficial for those investors wishing to take advantage of the new federal tax credit. It’s also a boost for those wanting to install residential household systems using the higher incentives from the California Solar Initiative Program (CSI).
Overall, iSuppli expects 350MW worth of solar systems to be installed in California during 2009. This is far and away the most of any state in America. The rest of the country is expected to install only 132MW in 2009.
Italy’s hot and cold
California isn’t the only region still pushing ahead with plans for PV installations. The Italian electricity administration authority, Gestione Servizi Electriche (GSE), in April announced that 338MW had been installed in 2008.
This far exceeds the 220MW that iSuppli originally forecasted for the country. Because of this, iSuppli is increasing its Italian forecast for 2009 to 580MW, up from 350MW.
Solar hotspots
According to iSuppli’s latest figures and feedback from companies, about 4 Gigawatts (GW) worth of new PV systems will be installed worldwide in 2009, with the majority of these installations coming from Germany at 1.5GW, Italy at 580MW and another 300MW to 400MW coming from Spain, California and Japan each.
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