Subsidies for major markets to decrease; prospects in 1Q12 looking up with impending subsidy cut

TAIWAN: According to EnergyTrend, the green energy division of TrendForce, Europe and China may further reduce the subsidies. With companies trying to take advantage of subsidies while they can, the prospects for the global solar market are looking up for 1Q12, and the spot prices are also on an upswing. However, the upward price trend may cause uncertainty to the market outlook in 2Q12, as a certain amount of orders have been advanced to 1Q12. The subsidy reduction in 2Q12 will render the companies conservative.

At present, European countries such as the United Kingdom, Germany, France, Greece, and Switzerland have announced their new subsidy policies. For example, Germany may reduce the subsidy by 12-24 percent, which will result in the same strong demand for 1Q12 as that for 11’Dec; the same goes for Greece and Switzerland. Although China is said to reduce its subsidy as well, due to the fact that the domestic demand in China is mainly supplied by the Chinese manufacturers, China’s subsidy reduction plays little part in the global market.Source: EnergyTrend, Taiwan.

As for this week’s spot prices, according to EnergyTrend’s research, currently lowest polysilicon price has increased to $27/kg, while the average price rose to $29.32/kg, a 4.85 percent increase. Si wafer has also seen a price increase, with the lowest multi-Si wafer price reaching $1.15/piece and the average price arriving at $1.189/piece, a 1.62 percent increase.

The mono-Si wafer average price increased slightly to $1.596/piece, an increase of 0.82 percent. EnergyTrend stated that the high-efficiency Si wafer products is now in an shortage, which jacks up related products’ prices. High-efficiency Si wafer’s ASP is now at $1.25/piece and the regular ones’ price is at $1.17/piece, a price gap of 6-8 percent.

As for solar cells, this week’s average price still showed a slight uptrend with average conclude transaction price at $0.517/Watt, a 0.19 percent increase. This week’s solar module price also continuously increased, with average price at $0.878/Watt, an increase of 3.05 percent. The Si module price continued to go up, so did the price of thin film module, with the average price increasing to $0.819/Watt, a 2.37 percent increase.

Alta Devices' solar panel receives NREL verification of 23.5 percent efficiency

SANTA CLARA, USA: Alta Devices' most recent solar panel has been verified by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) at 23.5 percent efficiency. This is the highest solar panel efficiency yet achieved and demonstrates Alta's progress toward its objective of developing solar photovoltaic (PV) solutions that are competitive, without subsidies, with fossil fuels.

The announcement is Alta's next step toward commercializing its technology. This new panel uses the same technology as the company announced last summer, which achieved record solar cell conversion efficiencies resulting from key technical breakthroughs in harnessing the high efficiency of gallium arsenide (GaAs) in cost–effective ways.

Alta chose to focus on GaAs because of its intrinsic efficiency advantages as well as its ability to generate electricity at high temperatures and in low light. This means that Alta's panels have substantially higher energy density than other technologies, generating more kilowatt–hours of energy over the course of a year in real life conditions.

According to Christopher Norris, Alta president and CEO, “Our goal is to optimize the production economics of solar so that it is competitive with fossil fuels without subsidies, leading to broad adoption of solar generated electricity.”

In addition to technology advances which push the limits of energy density, Alta is also focused on changing the manufacturing economics of solar and enabling formats and form factors that were previously not possible.

To that end, though GaAs is known for being expensive to produce, Alta has invented a manufacturing technique that enables extremely thin layers of GaAs that are a fraction of the thickness of earlier GaAs solar cells. Alta's cells are about one micron thick; for comparison, a human hair is approximately 40 microns thick. In utilizing very thin devices that have the highest energy density possible, the cost of the material needed in Alta panels remains low and the potential costs of an entire solar energy system based on Alta's technology could be dramatically reduced.

Moreover, because Alta's PV film is thin and flexible, it has the potential to be integrated in wholly unique ways and into a variety of applications – including roof and building materials, and numerous military, consumer, and transportation products.

According to Norris, Alta is making substantial progress on the build-out of its pilot manufacturing line, which uses mostly off–the–shelf equipment with some proprietary optimizations unique to Alta's process. Moreover, Alta is starting to plan for full–scale production, with activities such as building strategic manufacturing partnerships and selecting its first large, commercial manufacturing site.

According to Alta investor, Andy Rappaport of August Capital: “Alta has perfectly and very systematically met its plan for achieving, and then continually improving on record efficiency since the company was first funded. This consistency of technical accomplishment, building on the potential inherent in Alta's core technology, confirms our belief that the company will change the landscape of solar energy deployment.”

GCL-Poly forms JV with NRG Solar

HONG KONG: GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Ltd and NRG Solar LLC, a leading photovoltaic utility project developer in the United States, through their respective wholly-owned subsidiary, formed a joint venture named Sunora Energy Solutions 1 LLC. Each of the shareholders owns 50 percent interest in Sunora accordingly.

Sunora will seek to build selected projects developed by NRG Solar using GCL-Poly’s performance-optimized PV system equipment and NRG’s proprietary advanced racking technologies to substantially enhance the financial returns of the projects.

In addition, GCL-Poly has provided a total of 70 megawatts of PV equipment to NRG Solar since the beginning in the fourth quarter of 2011 and early 2012. GCL-Poly may have an opportunity to provide NRG Solar 200MW of PV equipment for each year until end of 2014.

Gongshan Zhu, chairman of the GCL-Poly, said: “NRG Solar is one of the largest PV project developers in the United States. We are pleased to collaborate with NRG Solar where we can maximize the values of performance-optimized system equipment. This transaction is our first step toward a strong and strategic partnership with NRG Solar. We look forward to bringing the value of GCL-Poly to a fast-growing US solar market through this partnership.”

UES offering output of new solar systems directly to electric customers

KINGMAN, USA: UniSource Energy Services is unveiling a new program that allows electric customers to buy solar energy directly from two recently completed solar generating systems in Mohave County.

The systems' combined 1.7 megawatt (MW) output will be sold directly to customers through UES' new Bright Arizona Community Solar program. Beginning this month, energy from the arrays will be available to UES electric customers in 150 kilowatt-hour (kWh) "blocks" that will add $3 apiece to monthly bills. Customers can purchase some or all of their energy through the program, reducing or eliminating their use of conventional power for an affordable price.

"Electric customers who want to power their home or business with solar energy can now stake their claim to the output of these solar power systems," said Paul Bonavia, chairman and CEO of UES and its parent company, UniSource Energy. "While investing in your own rooftop solar power system is still a great option, the Bright Arizona Community Solar program offers an easy, affordable way to go green by essentially sharing solar arrays with other electric customers."

For 2012, UES has 1,720 blocks of solar energy available for purchase from two solar systems:

* The 1.22 MW single-axis tracking photovoltaic (PV) array at La Senita Elementary School in Kingman. The array, UES' first utility-scale renewable energy system, was built by Tucson-based SOLON Corp. and features more than 5,000 solar panels.
* A 500-kilowatt solar array developed as part of Western Wind Energy's integrated wind and solar system southwest of Kingman.

Additional blocks could become available as UES expands its local solar generating resources. The company will invest approximately $5 million this year in renewable energy systems and is currently looking to expand its development in Mohave and Santa Cruz counties.

Because solar power costs more than energy from traditional resources, participating in the program will increase customers' electric bills — at least for now. Each block replaces an equivalent amount of conventional power at a rate that will remain fixed for 20 years under rules approved by the Arizona Corporation Commission (ACC). That means participants can lock in a steady supply of green power at a price that could generate significant savings if the cost of fossil-fueled power increases.

"The program is perfect for renters, property owners whose rooftops aren't fully exposed to the sun or anyone who wants the benefits of solar energy without the upfront cost or complications," said David Hutchens, president of UES and UniSource Energy.

UES' solar energy resources help the company comply with Arizona's Renewable Energy Standard (RES), which requires Arizona utilities to increase their use of renewable power each year until it represents 15 percent of their energy in 2025. In 2012, the policy calls on UES to secure 3.5 percent of its power from renewables, including solar energy, wind, biogas and other resources.

Solar inverter market hits speed bump in 2011

EL SEGUNDO, USA: Despite strong long-term growth prospects, the worldwide solar photovoltaic (PV) inverter space dipped slightly in 2011 as two big solar markets stalled or cut tariffs, even though overall losses in the industry were mitigated somewhat by growth in other parts of the world.

Shipments of PV inverters last year fell to the equivalent of 23.4 gigawatts (GW), down 1 percent from 23.6 GW in 2010, according to an IHS iSuppli PV Inverter Market Tracker report.

The decline in shipments last year was accompanied by a large 15 percent drop in revenue, down to €4.4 billion ($6.1 billion) because of a sharp decline in average selling prices. Prices plunged a steep 14 percent during the year—much worse than earlier forecasts predicting only a 10 percent contraction.

Nonetheless, inverter shipments are expected to return to positive territory this year with a projected 5 percent increase to 24.5 GW, to be followed by three more years of successive expansion, as shown in the figure.Source: IHS iSuppli, USA.

While revenue will still decline in 2012, the retreat will ease to just 3 percent, after which growth is expected to return and then climb to the 20 percent range by 2014 as demand from new markets begins to make an impact.

Inverters are devices that convert the energy of the sun captured by solar panels into a usable form of electricity eventually fed back into the electrical grid.

“The slump in 2011 inverter shipments is mainly attributed to challenging conditions in the photovoltaics markets in the key countries of Germany and the Czech Republic,” said Greg Sheppard, senior director for PV research at IHS. “Shipments in Germany declined after the industry there stalled, while shipments in the Czech Republic fell off a cliff—after the government in Prague cut tariffs to deliberately slow down an otherwise superheated expansion. Luckily, much of the loss was made up by growth in other markets.”

Inverter shipments in Germany tumbled to 6.1 GW in 2011, down from 9.9 GW in 2010, while shipments in the Czech Republic dropped precipitously to just 55 megawatts (MW), down from 1.5 GW.

China had the largest increase in inverter shipments for the year, reaching 1.6 GW in 2011 from just 691 MW in 2010. The United States was second, climbing to 2.8 GW, up from 1.5 GW. Both countries, along with Japan, will represent the largest absolute growth in inverter opportunities this year.

France and Italy also did well in 2011, but both markets are expected to run into stiffer headwinds in 2012 as government authorities recalibrate tariffs and cap installations for the time being to decelerate growth.

Other territories expected to post significant increases in 2012 are India, as well as emerging markets in Asia, Latin America and the collective region of Europe, Middle East and Africa known as EMEA.

Inverter winners
Germany’s SMA Solar Technology remained the PV inverter market’s dominant supplier in 2011, with 31 percent of the worldwide space in terms of megawatts. California-based Power-One was the second-largest brand with 12 percent market share, and it also was the top competitor in Italy.

The rest of the Top 10 included three other companies from Germany—Kaco New Energy, Refusol GmbH and Siemens Industry Automation; as well as US firm Satcon Technology Corp. from Massachusetts; Fronius International GmbH from Austria; Ingeteam Energy from Spain; Elettronica Santerno from Italy; and Danfoss Solar from Denmark. Together the Top 10 accounted for 75 percent of the inverter market.

A variety of products continued to be introduced to the market last year, with many companies supplementing their ground segment offerings with new models featuring grid-friendly features and water-cooled power stations. Other notable product developments saw support for German low-voltage requirements, more lower-wattage three-phase products, improved monitoring with wireless communications and better interoperability with other systems.

To maintain success moving ahead, inverter companies must either stay geographically focused or be prepared to invest where demand materializes around the globe. Europe is going to slow as the major solar countries there adjust to new policy growth corridors, while new geographic markets in the Americas, Asia, and Eastern Europe/EMEA will contribute most of the available opportunities for near-term expansion.

Source: IHS iSuppli, USA.

North American utility-scale PV installations surge in Q4’11

SANTA CLARA, USA: Sharp reductions in market prices combined with the impact of regional and national policies pushed the North American photovoltaic (PV) market to a new quarterly peak with 0.93 GW installed in Q4’11, according to the latest North American PV Markets Quarterly report issued by NPD Solarbuzz.

The solar incentive policy mix in both the United States and Canadian markets drove up demand in large-scale ground-mount systems, which was 59 percent of this total. Regionally, the New Jersey, California, Arizona, and Ontario accounted for two-thirds of Q4’11 demand.

In the US, the expiration of the Federal Cash Grant caused an acceleration of project activity to qualify for the end-year deadline. The Cash Grant was instrumental, supporting 1 GW of PV capacity by the end of 2011. At the state level, the California Solar Initiative (CSI), the nation’s largest ratepayer funded program, received additional funding of $200 million during Q4’11, enabling it to address a long waiting list for customer-side distributed generation.

Following the raising of its Renewable Portfolio Standard target, California has started implementing several programs that will stimulate wholesale distributed generation projects between 1 and 20 MW. On the other hand, continuation of New Jersey’s strong Q4’11 growth is under threat due to over-supply of Solar Renewable Energy Credits (SREC). Both New Jersey and Pennsylvania failed to enact legislation to fix the SREC over-supply by revising their RPS solar obligations.

In 2012, US demand growth will be supported by a 25 GW non-residential and utility project pipeline. This includes projects that qualified for the Cash Grant, which will only ship and be installed this year. Residential demand is forecast to grow modestly in 2012, stimulated by lower system prices and lease financing programs, but held back by declining market prices in the five key states that have met their RPS requirements.Source: NPD Solarbuzz, USA.

There will be more restructuring in downstream channels due to changes in end market segment mix. Residential demand, fragmented into small state markets, will cause larger downstream companies to exit this market segment while new entrants in the project developer role seek to bring the huge non-residential and utility project pipeline to market.

“The key uncertainties on the rate of US demand growth in 2012 relate to the impact of the end of the Federal Cash Grant and approval timetables for large utility scale projects together with the market impact of states that have met their RPS,” said Junko Movellan, NPD Solarbuzz senior analyst. “In 2011, the pace of market price reductions was accelerated by the growth in Chinese module supply. The uncertainty caused by the Chinese anti-dumping case started to reshape supply and pricing in Q4’11; the ruling will shape the 2H’12 supply mix.”

In Canada, large-scale projects completed during Q4’11 had been approved under Ontario’s previous incentive program, RESOP. In contrast, the newer FIT program has been most successful in spurring approximately 100 MW of smaller scale residential and non-residential projects during 2011. Large-scale systems under the FIT have been slow to start, due mainly to delays in regulatory and program-related approvals. However, advancement in other areas—project financing and execution of product supply agreements—is evidence that these projects are well advanced, and most are positioned for installation during 2012.

“The biggest uncertainty in the Canadian market continues to revolve around the outcomes of the Ontario FIT program review that started in October 2011,” said Michael Barker, NPD Solarbuzz analyst. ”2012 demand projections are dependent on the retention of the key elements of the existing program structure, but anticipate rates falling between 10 percent and 30 percent in concert with greater specificity on technology or customer-type goals.”

Conergy and Soligest built 6 MW installations on warehouse roofs

HAMBURG, GERMANY & BRIGNOLES, FRANCE: Conergy France, together with its local partner Soligest, have recently completed three rooftop solar installations with a total power rating of 6.1 megawatts. The solar experts have installed more than 80,000 thin-film modules on 67,000 square metres of roof surface. Conergy was responsible for both the design and technical planning of the installation.

This massive project consists of three separate installations. The largest of the three systems, at 2.7 MW, has been connected to the public grid by the end of January. It was installed on top of a logistics centre in Thiers, Puy-de-Dôme in France; the 2.3 MW installation is located in Bollène in Vaucluse; and a smaller 1.1 MW installation will now produce green energy on top of a warehouse in Maine-et-Loire.

Together these three industrial rooftop installations will produce 6.5 gigawatt hours of clean electricity from the sun per year, the equivalent of the energy consumption of around 2,200 households. This represents a saving of 3,130 tons of damaging CO2 emissions - the equivalent of 45 trucks driving the 738 kilometres between Montreuil (49) and Bollène (84).

"This project has been a great success for Conergy France," says head of Conergy France, Xavier Ansaldi. "It is our biggest project so far this year, and once again our expertise and many years of international experience in major free-field projects and rooftop installations has stood us in good stead."

Conergy's partner Soligest not only installed the systems but will also operate them. Arnaud Maillard, sales manager at Soligest added: "We are delighted with the way everything went so smoothly with our partnership with Conergy, especially when you consider the size and complexity of the project. With the benefit of this experience we know that we now have a very strong team for carrying out future rooftop installation projects, both large and small. We can certainly envisage working with Conergy again."

The three large-scale installations involved in the joint project all benefit from what is known as "tariff protection", so the feed-in tariffs applied will be those that were valid at the time the project was planned back in 2010. Although legislation has changed in France recently, private, medium and large-sized rooftop installations can still be lucrative.Experts estimate that in the coming year the combined output of medium-sized rooftop installations up to 100 kilowatts and larger installations up to 250 kilowatts will be around 220 megawatts.

With eight years in the industry, Conergy is one the most experienced system providers in the French market. Conergy's portfolio includes concepts for all sizes of solar installations, from planning and technical design, construction and delivery of all solar components to maintenance and technical operation. Conergy also offers complete solutions for private roofs that not only satisfy all the requirements for receiving the highest in-feed tariffs, but also already meet the standards that have been established for 2012.