PV prices continue to go up, but momentum slows

TAIWAN: According to the latest price survey conducted by EnergyTrend, the polysilicon spot price continues to increase, and current trading price has stayed between $52/kg and $54/kg. Notably, the trading price in the Chinese market is slightly higher than other markets ranging from $55/kg to $58/kg.

The main spot price of mono-Si wafer stays between $2.6/piece and $2.65/piece due to its high market demand. Also, the main spot price of multi-Si wafer stays between $1.95/piece and $2.1/piece.

According to EnergyTrend, PV manufacturers take a wait-and-see attitude toward the market in 3Q11. Currently, they put more focus on the order demand of 3Q11 to evaluate the market development. On the other hand, although most of PV spot prices went up, the extent has narrowed. It might signal the end market demand is less than expected, and the price trend of 3Q11 could reverse.Source: EnergyTrend, Taiwan.

This week’s survey shows that the average price of polysilicon has risen by 1.53 percent to $54.55/kg. While the average price of multi-Si wafer increased by 1.79 percent to $2.05/piece, the average price of mono-Si wafer has stayed at $2.631/piece. On the other hand, the solar cell market demand is spurred by increasing clients’ need and the demand for high conversion efficiency product remains large; hence, the current high price has stably remained.

However, manufacturers are having difficulties raising the price of lower conversion efficiency products due to pricing pressure from lower demand for such products. Nevertheless, the average price of solar cell has slightly increased by 2.3 percent to $0.802/Watt. Furthermore, the average price of module market has slightly declined by 1.39 percent to $1.275/Watt. Affected by market price in India, the thin film market price has decreased slightly by 0.3 percent to $1.000/Watt.

According to current market trend, EnergyTrend believes the oversupply still remains. As far as the supply chain is considered, the price rebound first occurred in the upstream, namely, the polysilicon sector. Although Si wafer manufacturers sought to keep up with the price trend, the price recovery of Si wafer could not overhaul the price increase of polysilicon.

Currently, major Si wafer manufacturers not only mix substitute materials to reduce cost, but also try to renegotiate terms with their suppliers. However, the efforts to gain support from suppliers appears to be futile. Hence, EnergyTrend believes that the Si wafer manufacturers’ profit in 3Q11 may be compromised.

On the other hand, participants of Intersolar North America Exhibit, completed last week, indicated that system and power plant projects drew relatively more attention at the event. Compared with other markets, the North American market demand still remains strong, and it is estimated that the market demand for system installation will reach as high as 2GW this year. Therefore, system manufacturers are now aiming for the potential growth of the North American market as the next major market development.

According to EnergyTrend’s survey, although major project bids of the US focus on large scale utility plant establishments, smaller projects such as rooftop systems will also benefit from state governments and the federal government’s subsidies.

EnergyTrend indicates that since European governments have cut the subsidies for large solar energy power plants substantially, the rooftop system market will be the major market driver from now on. In addition, the US market might resemble such a market trend in the future. The conversion efficiency plays an important role in developing rooftop systems, and thus it is expected that the manufacturers including Taiwanese makers with advanced technology will be in a better position to grasp new business opportunities.