PV market prices show growth, 1Q13 performance may surpass expectations

TAIWAN: According to EnergyTrend, a research division of TrendForce, given the uncertainty surrounding the subsidy policies for the second quarter, along with the increasing demand coming from downstream clients, there is a good chance that the PV industry will perform beyond the expectations of a typical slack quarter during 1Q13.

As EnergyTrend's data indicates, in recent periods the number of industry orders has been on the rise. On the one hand, this has to do with the expected downward adjustments for PV subsidies during Japan's new fiscal year (beginning April 2013). In order to secure proper IRR, efforts to complete investments on grid-connected powers by the end of March have intensified, which in turn is helping to sustain Japan's PV market demand momentum.

Given that China's double anti policy may not be officially implemented until Chinese New Year Holiday, Chinese vendors--in anticipating the European Union to carry out their policy at around a similar point in time--will attempt to prevent potential losses from arising during the look back period, and has been taking active steps to accelerate their shipments. The product orders for the Taiwanese PV vendors, as a result, are expected to continue to increase in the periods to come.

In addition to the changes experienced by the European and Japanese markets, the rise of China's domestic solar market, along with the growth experienced by the US market following increased subsidies for the green energy industry, are all contributing to the growing demand in the PV market.

The recent subsidies intended for PV development in New York and Los Angeles, the emphasis on the use of renewable energy resources by US President Barrack Obama, and the large US power plant investments are also important factors that, according to relevant vendors, are continuing to reinforce PV market momentum. With the above factors taken into account, the prospects for the solar market in 2013, on the whole, remain largely optimistic.

With regard to the spot market, given the strengthened demand momentum and the reluctance on the part of the industry vendors to engage in transactions, polysilicon price quoted by Chinese businesses have continued to grow. Although downstream clients are somewhat unenthusiastic about the increasing price quotes, some have nonetheless shown willingness to purchase, which as a result caused prices to move between $125RMB and $130RMB.

For the silicon wafers, given the increased demand, prices in the Chinese market are continuing to climb, with multi-si wafer prices now being no less than $5.7 RMB/piece, and the market prices ending up at somewhere around $5.85RMB/piece. Prices for mono si-wafers, on the other hand, are at least $7.7 RMB/piece, with the market price being approximately $8RMB/piece. For the solar cells, the prices are between $2.35RMB and $2.9RMB.

In terms of the US prices, the lowest prices for polysilicon wafers have recently been adjusted to $15/kg. The ASP has arrived at around $16.887/kg, which is an increase of around 5.79 percent from around a week ago. We believe that the positive prospects of the market are the driving forces behind the buyers' support; for silicon wafers, the lowest prices for multi-si wafers have increased to approximately $0.78/piece, whereas ASP approached $0.832/piece, a 1.71 percent increase.

Affected by Japan's increased efforts to pull goods, mono si-wafer prices have gone on an uptrend as well, with ASP arriving at $1.141/piece, a 4.01 percent increase. With regards to the solar cells, as various vendors have begun to increase their price quotes, the ASP has climbed to $0.351/Watt, a 0.57 percent increase. Module ASP, likewise, climbed to $0.65/Watt, a 0.78 percent increase.