Punitive tariffs would cost EU up to 242,000 jobs

BELGIUM: Anti-dumping and/or countervailing duties at whatever level on imported Chinese solar products will lead to decreased demand for solar products immediately translating into very significant job losses and less value added along the whole European photovoltaic value chain. This is the result of a study by the independent economic institute Prognos.

Prognos shows the very significant impact these measures have on employment and value added in the EU from 2013 to 2015 based on three scenarios of duties: 20 percent, 35 percent and 60 percent, respectively.

A punitive tariff of 20 percent would cost 115,600 jobs in the European Union during the first year after the implementation. This would add up to 175,500 job losses until the third year. The value added lost would sum up to 4.74 billion euros in the first year and to 18.4 billion euros during three years with a tariff of 20 percent.

A punitive tariff of 60 percent would even lead to 193,700 job losses in the whole EU during the first year and to 242,000 in the third year. The total loss of value added would amount to 7.86 billion euros during the first year after the implementation. In total over three years 27.2 billion euros of value added would be at stake.

“The potential positive impact of duties for the EU solar producers is dwarfed by the negative impact on employment in the EU. Due to the imposition of tariffs production of EU solar products increases and some jobs are being created. However, the jobs created by the EU solar producers represent at the very most 20 percent of the jobs lost along the PV value chain”, says Thorsten Preugschas, CEO of the German project developer Soventix, a spokesperson of AFASE.

Duties will lead to a considerable decrease in demand for solar products which results on the one hand in less demand for solar installations and services. On the other hand, the supply of intermediate inputs such as raw materials and production equipment from Europe to China decreases.

The study was presented by Prognos at a hearing arranged by the Alliance for Affordable Solar Energy, AFASE, held at the European Commission in Brussels.