Top-10 solar cell suppliers in 2009: First Solar to produce twice as much as leading crystalline solar module suppliers

EL SEGUNDO, USA: Leveraging its low-cost thin-film process, US-based First Solar Inc. is set to surpass its crystalline competitors to become the world’s largest producer of photovoltaic (PV) cells in 2009, according to iSuppli Corp.

First Solar in 2009 is set to produce 1,100 Megawatts (MW) worth of solar cells, more than double the 503MW it made in 2008. This will give First Solar nearly twice as much production of total solar cells as its nearest competitor, Suntech Power Holdings Co. Ltd. As iSuppli noted in an Aug. 10 release, SunTech in 2009 is set to become the leader of the crystalline segment, which is a subset of the total solar cell market.

“First Solar is leveraging its cost leadership to achieve market-share leadership in the global PV solar cell business,” said Dr. Henning Wicht, senior director and principal analyst for iSuppli. “The company’s proprietary thin-film process is giving it an edge over the competition amid challenging solar market conditions.”

The figure presents iSuppli’s forecasted worldwide market share for all types of solar cells in 2009.

iSuppli:Forecast of Top-10 Suppliers of Solar Cells in 2009 (Ranking by Production in Megawatts (MW))Source: iSuppli, Sept. 2009

“First Solar sells its products at very competitive prices, always undercutting crystalline cells,” Wicht said. “With its capability to produce cells at a cost of 89 cents per watt in the second quarter, First Solar is generating stable operating margins, while its competitors are struggling to stay profitable. Despite global oversupply of PV modules, First Solar is continuing to expand and is able to sell nearly all of its finished goods.”

Beyond low-cost production, First Solar’s success is also being driven by its well-established sales channels in Europe and its own installations for U.S. utility projects.

First Solar will be the only company among the Top-4 solar cell suppliers able to gain market share in 2009, iSuppli predicts. The company’s portion of global solar cell MW production will rise to 12.8 percent in 2009, up from 7.5 percent in 2008. No.-2 SunTech, No.-3 Sharp and No.-4 Q-Cells -- all will suffer contractions in total solar cell market share.

First Solar also holds the lowest levels of inventory in the global solar cell industry. Because of this, iSuppli expects the company to actually sell all of its production in 2009, rather than stockpiling it. With inventories throughout the PV supply chain soaring, this give First Solar a significant competitive advantage.

With 3.92GW worth of solar capacity set to be installed in 2009, First Solar’s cells will account for as much as 28 percent of the total, according to iSuppli. The company’s share will be even higher in ground installations and large rooftops, where its products find the strongest acceptance. Its share will be lower in other types of installations, such as small rooftops.

Thin-film represents a new generation of solar cell technology that is gaining acceptance worldwide. Traditional solar cells have employed crystalline material, which is relatively efficient at converting light into electricity, but also more expensive relative to thin-film. In addition to SunTech, crystalline solar-cell suppliers include Q-Cells, Sharp, Yingli and JA Solar.

In contrast, thin-film employs slim layers of materials including cadmium, tellurium, copper, amorphous, and microcrystalline silicon.

Because of its cost advantage, thin film will grow to account for 34.5 percent of worldwide solar production in terms of MW in 2013, up from 14.2 percent in 2008.

Despite the strong rise of thin-films, iSuppli doesn’t believe that the technology will surpass crystalline in the foreseeable future.

“The rise of thin-film is due to the success of First Solar and its unique thin film process,” Wicht said. “There’s no new First Solar yet on the horizon. With only one supplier, thin film’s progress will be limited.”

First Solar employs a patented process using cadmium telluride (CdTe).

Previously committed capacity expansions cause solar cell manufacturing oversupply!

AUSTIN, USA: According to DisplaySearch's Q3’09 Quarterly PV Cell Capacity Database & Trends Report, solar cell manufacturing capacity is likely to grow 56 percent in 2009 to 17GW. Ramped capacity, which was only 2.3GW in 2005, is forecast to grow at a CAGR of 49 percent to more than 42GW in 2013.

"Despite PV module demand shrinking 17 percent in 2009, so much cell manufacturing equipment was ordered and installed over the past year that capacity is still expected to grow 56 percent this year," said Charles Annis, DisplaySearch Vice President of Manufacturing Research and author of the report.

"With demand and capacity moving in different directions, the PV industry is currently experiencing an enormous over-supply that is causing rapid price erosion and potentially setting the stage for the failure of multiple cell manufacturers, particularly companies pursuing a-Si thin film solar cells.

"The PV industry will begin working through this excess capacity as demand recovers next year and takes off in 2011 and beyond.”

Here are just some of the many highlights from the Q3’09 Quarterly PV Cell Capacity Database & Trends Report:

* Through 2006, Japan had the largest solar cell production capacity in the world. However, Chinese companies started to ramp up a host of new facilities in 2005 and by 2007 had more solar cell capacity on line than any other country.

China has continued to invest heavily in production facilities, about a third of the worldwide cell capacity in 2009 and is forecast to be the main region for cell production well into the future.

* Of the 3.58GW of thin film capacity available in 2009, more than 30 percent use 600×1200 mm glass substrates, the standard CdTe glass size used by First Solar.

Gen 5-equivalent substrates, ranging from 1000×1200 to 1100×1400 mm, are the second most common glass size, used for 18 percent of available thin film capacity.

* Between January 2008 and July 2009, approximately 11.4GW of new solar cell capacity was installed in fabs around the world. These previous investment commitments are the reason that capacity is continuing to grow 56 percent in 2009 despite falling demand.

* In 2005, 95 percent of solar cell manufacturing capacity was for crystalline silicon solar cells and 5 percent for thin-film solar cells. In 2009, thin film will account for more than 20 percent of capacity.

By 2013, thin film technologies are forecast to account for as much as 30 percent of solar cell capacity.

* For a-Si factories, in 2009 the four largest turn-key equipment vendors are AMAT, Oerlikon ULVAC and EPV, representing 946MW of ramped capacity or more than 50 percent of a-Si capacity online this year.

* In terms of capacity available for production in 2009, First Solar is the largest solar cell manufacturer with more than 1GW of capacity. Q-Cells and Suntech are not far behind and essentially tied for second place. These and other current leading PV cell manufacturers are forecast to invest at the highest rates over the next four years.

By 2013, these three companies plus JA Solar, Motech, REC, SunPower, Yingli, Showa Shell Solar (assuming it moves forward with a planned 1GW CIGS fab), and Sharp are forecast to be the top 10 makers, with more than 16GW or 38 percent of 2013 capacity.

Half of all solar panels made this year won’t be installed in 2009!

EL SEGUNDO, USA: How bad is the solar panel glut?

* So bad that nearly half of all panels made this year won’t be sold in 2009.
* So bad that the present massive oversupply of panels will persist until 2012.
* So bad that iSuppli Corp. is now reducing its forecast for solar panel production out to the year 2013.

“The solar industry in 2009 has been undermined by collapse in demand due to the decision by Spain—which accounted for 50 percent of worldwide installations in 2008—to change its feed-in-tariff policies,” said Henning Wicht, senior director and principal analyst for photovoltaics at iSuppli.

“This demand drop led to a massive buildup of inventory throughout the supply chain, from the raw material polysilicon, to PV cells, to complete solar systems. Despite this, solar panel makers have continued to increase capacity and production, exacerbating the inventory buildup.”

Total solar panel production in 2009 will grow by 14.3 percent to 7.5 Gigawatts (GW), up from 6.5GW in 2008. However, only 3.9 GW worth of installations will take place this year. That means that almost one out of every two panels produced in 2009 will not be installed but stored in inventory.

“This inventory glut will have a long-term impact on the solar business, with panels set to remain in a state of oversupply until 2012,” Wicht said. “After that year, fast-growing demand for solar installations will be able to absorb global panel production and inventory.

iSuppli’s updated forecast now shows supplier production flattening for the years from 2011 through 2013 compared to the old forecast.”

The figure presents iSuppli’s previous and updated forecasts for solar panel production in terms of GW.

iSuppli: Previous and Current Global Solar Panel Production Forecasts in Gigawatts (Crystalline and Thin Film)Source: iSuppli Aug. 2009

Still ramping?
Despite the global economic recession, most of the leading producers of solar panels -— such as Suntech, Sharp and JA Solar -— will continue to grow in concert with the overall PV industry, although they have no intention of slowing production of cells and panels.

“Even in the face of the downturn, many panel and cell producers have continued to ramp up their capacities as if a recession had never occurred,” Wicht said. “Most companies are doing this in order to maintain their share in the market.”

As a result, Suntech will push Q-Cells aside and become the No.-1 producer of crystalline cells in 2009, iSuppli predicts. Sharp, Yingli and JA Solar also will defend their Top-5 positions this year by not reducing their solar-cell production increases.

Those suppliers that have reduced or made adjustments to their production of cells and panels as a result of the softening demand have seen their short- and mid-term strategies falter. These suppliers include Q-Cells, SunPower and BP Solar.

Q-Cells, in particular, slowed down cell and panel expansion at its plant in Malaysia and has significantly reduced production targets in 2009. Likewise, SunPower has cut back its plans for expansion, while BP Solar has closed its panel production operations in Malaysia and Spain.

So, while some companies are hiking up production in order to maintain their positions in the market, others are forced to undertake short-term production cuts and delay or even cancel long-term expansion projects.

US, Chinese, and Taiwanese solar-cell makers gain ground

USA: Japan's suppliers of solar photovoltaic cells and panels, which dominated the industry for many years, slipped in the supplier rankings in 2008, according to a new 2009 report from IC Insights, Solar Energy: Growth Opportunities for the Semiconductor Industry.

The 2008 top 10 solar ranking contains two suppliers based in Japan, three in China, two in Taiwan, two in Germany, and one in the US (Fig. 1).Source: IC Insights

Sharp Corp. was the No. 1 PV device supplier in 2006 and for several years before that. In 2007, Germany's Q-Cells AG and China's Suntech Power Holdings Co. Ltd. overtook Sharp, according to IC Insights' figures.

In 2008, First Solar Inc., a US-based supplier of thin-film PV panels made with cadmium telluride, blew past both Sharp and Suntech, pushing Sharp down to No. 4 in the 2008 rankings, which are based on the peak-megawatt value of the PV devices produced and sold by each supplier.

The totals include PV cells, and in the thin-film case, PV panels. Cell-based panels are not included to avoid counting cells twice. First Solar's MW TF panel sales increased a stunning 144 percent in 2008, boosting it to the No. 2 position.

For its part, Sharp has stated extremely ambitious plans for expansion of its capacity to manufacture and sell silicon-based TF panels over the near term. If successful, Sharp could quickly make up for lost ground.

Sharp was not the only Japanese supplier whose position declined in the 2008 ranking. Kyocera Corp. slipped from the No. 5 spot in 2007 to No. 6 in 2008. Sanyo, which was No. 7 in the 2007 ranking, did not make IC Insights' top 10 ranking in 2008. Mitsubishi also dropped in the ranking.

Future PV device rankings are expected to show significant changes due to the small increments that separate many of the top players. The top four suppliers all achieved market shares (based on MW sales) between 8 percent and 9.5 percent.

A second tier of suppliers was formed by those ranked No. 5 through No. 10, all having between 4 percent and 5 percent market share, and with several additional suppliers close on their heels.

Changing rank within these tiers is statistically inevitable, and it is entirely possible for a supplier to move quickly from the second tier to the first, as First Solar demonstrated in 2008.

Other than First Solar, the risers in the top 10 list were exclusively suppliers based in China or Taiwan. Although China's Suntech slipped from No. 2 to No. 3 on MW growth below that of the total global industry, JA Solar Holdings Co. Ltd. rose from No. 10 to No. 7 in the ranking based on 109 percent growth in MW sales in 2008.

Yingli Green Energy Holding Co. Ltd. advanced from ninth place to eighth on the strength of 93 percent growth.

In Taiwan, Motech Industries Inc. swapped seats with Kyocera, moving from No. 6 to No. 5 thanks to a 67 percent increase in MW sales. But perhaps more impressive was the performance of Gintech Energy Corp., which equaled First Solar's growth of 144 percent in MW sales in 2008, pulling itself up from No. 12 to No. 8 in the ranking.

Gintech, like JA Solar, makes solar cells only; these two companies follow the business model of top-ranked Q-Cells, which has only recently started to diversify beyond pure-play PV cell manufacturing.

Other suppliers in the top 10 are involved in panel manufacturing, system installations, and other aspects of the solar value chain.

At the bottom of the list is No. 10 Solar World AG, a German company that holds the distinction of being the biggest manufacturer of PV cells in the US, thanks to the recent expansion of its plant in Hillsboro, Oregon.

A US-headquartered cell manufacturer, SunPower Corp., almost made it into the top 10 in 2008, but SunPower manufactures its cells in plants in the Philippines.