Significant mismatch between solar cell shipment targets and likely 2009 results!

AUSTIN, USA: Young Market Research (YMR) has released the first issue of its Monthly Solar Cell Capacity, Shipment and Company Profile Database and Report. This three-in-one report features essential supply, shipment and company profile data and analysis on over 210 different cell manufacturers.

According to Ross Young, YMR President: “The first issue of this report shows that solar cell manufacturers are currently overly optimistic on the 2009 market. Aggregating their 2009 shipment forecasts results in a market size of 10.4GWs, up 39 percent vs. the 2008 total of 7.5GWs and well beyond the likely outcome of 5.5-7.5GWs. As a result, we expect to see many companies reducing their 2009 guidance in coming quarters.”

According to Young, the lack of growth in 2009 can be attributed to the factors below and are too much to overcome despite healthy reductions in costs and prices.

* An 80 percent decline in Spain, the largest PV market in 2008, due to a 500MW cap on subsidies.
* A harsh winter in Germany, the #2 market in 2008 and expected to be the largest in 2009.
* Tighter credit worldwide for photovoltaic (PV) system financing.
* A declining global economy.
* Significant product inventory in the reseller channel at the beginning of the year.

Report highlights:
* After holding the #3 position in shipments in 2008, First Solar is expected to grab the #1 position for the first time in 2009 with a healthy share advantage over its top competitors on cost leadership and strong demand from the growing utility market.

* Thin film technologies a-Si and CIGS are expected to occupy 17 percent of worldwide capacity in 2009, but just 9 percent of shipments on technical challenges, higher capital costs in the case of a-Si, higher balance of system costs due to lower efficiencies and strong price competition from CdTe and c-Si technologies whose costs and prices are falling rapidly. This report shows 93 cell manufacturers participating in a-Si or CIGS.

* The 2009 capacity growth rate will be 40 percent slower than 2008 as suppliers look to preserve cash. A majority of listed companies lost money in Q1’09 with average operating margins falling from double-digits through Q3’08 to 3% in Q1’09.

* A 42 percent CAGR in nameplate capacity to 50GWs in 2012 with at least 18 percent annual growth as healthy demand growth returns in 2010 due to lower prices and larger stimulus programs worldwide.

* China is expected to lead in total capacity throughout the forecast with a dominant share in c-Si capacity and the top share in thin film capacity from 2009.