In its analysis, Yole Développement takes into account the financial crisis: the company presents an overview of the PV industry including all markets and technological impacts. This markets and technological study offers a full description and analysis of photovoltaic’s market, technologies, manufacturing processes, equipment and materials. It also includes key figures, analyses and useful tools for strategic decisions.
Source: Yole Développement.Financial crisis: a direct impact
For several years, the photovoltaic (PV) industry was primarily seen as an outstanding financial investment, delivering a high‐performance return‐on‐investment (ROI) with limited risk.
The objectives were simply to adapt the production capacities to answer a high market demand. In this context, polysilicon and wafer producers, cell and module manufacturers were assured to sell their entire production.
However, 2009 has been quite particular as the financial crisis has not spared the PV industry. The credit crunch, lower‐than‐expected market growth, and a large product offer have in fact forced companies to be more innovative than ever. As a consequence the whole PV chain, from polysilicon producers to module manufacturers, is working on new technical solutions to reach grid parity and finally make PV a competitive renewable energy source.
Government incentives as well as new power grid structure (e.g. smart grid) will contribute, in the coming years, in making PV a viable alternative to conventional energy sources such as coal or nuclear. As cost reduction has become one of the top priorities for equipment and material suppliers, we are today seeing them partnering with cell manufacturers to pull production cost down.
Worldwide investments in R&D as well as in cell production capacity have reached an unprecedented level. Cell manufacturers will start benefiting from economies of scale in the coming years, but innovation in the field of material and equipment will remain a key parameter to sustain the growth. Manufacturers will develop more and more new technologies based on well‐established techniques from various industries such as semiconductor, display, printing, glass, etc.
Even with a slowdown in the fourth quarter of 2008, the market, boosted by demand for thin‐film equipment, was incredibly high that year. “We estimate that total revenue for equipment exceeded 2.7 Billion Euros. Until the end of 2009 and during 2010, because of strong overcapacities, total revenue is forecast to decrease by 45 percent compared to 2008 to 1.5 Billion Euros”, explains Gaetan Rull, Market Analyst at Yole Développement.
Market demand is forecast to come back after 2010 and will progressively impact the production sites by increasing the fab utilization rates. Investments in fab extensions and related equipment are expected to follow in 2011 although they will arrive with a slight time lag behind the demand increase.
PV equipment market: what has been changed?
• A large number of companies invested in polysilicon manufacturing capacity
For example, incumbents such as Hemlock, Wacker and REC are in the process of doubling or even tripling their production capacity while keeping a low manufacturing cost.
Moreover, motivated by a silicon shortage and high prepayments, a lot of new players have purchased Siemens‐type equipment and entered the market in 2009: DC Chemical, LDK, GCL Poly Energy, etc.
Yole Développement also observed new developments in low‐cost technologies such as Fluidized Bed Reactor with players like AE polysilicon, MEMC, or Peaksun, upgraded metallurgical grade promoted by Becancour, 6N Silicon, Dow Corning, etc.
• The thin‐film industry has also seen major announcements
Both companies, Nanosolar or Solyndra, set performance at the next level up while decrease the cost per watt. Thanks to revolutionary cell designs and new production concepts, the firms are now positioning themselves as challengers to First Solar.
First Solar, considered by many as a true game‐changer, definitely demonstrated its strong leadership and managed to build a Giga‐Watt factory in just a few years.
• New alliances have been signed in 2009
Yole Développement followed the various trends and alliances created by the entrance of Applied Materials, Oerlikon Solar, Ulvac and the other OEMs.
After a large run after thin‐film equipment, a lower demand and a decrease of the silicon price, Yole Développement noticed a real impact on sales in this domain.
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