PV technology equipment and market report

LYON, FRANCE: Yole Développement updated its new markets and technological study dedicated to the photovoltaic industry: Photovoltaic Technology Equipment & Market Report 2009.

In its analysis, Yole Développement takes into account the financial crisis: the company presents an overview of the PV industry including all markets and technological impacts. This markets and technological study offers a full description and analysis of photovoltaic’s market, technologies, manufacturing processes, equipment and materials. It also includes key figures, analyses and useful tools for strategic decisions.Source: Yole Développement.

Financial crisis: a direct impact
For several years, the photovoltaic (PV) industry was primarily seen as an outstanding financial investment, delivering a high‐performance return‐on‐investment (ROI) with limited risk.

The objectives were simply to adapt the production capacities to answer a high market demand. In this context, polysilicon and wafer producers, cell and module manufacturers were assured to sell their entire production.

However, 2009 has been quite particular as the financial crisis has not spared the PV industry. The credit crunch, lower‐than‐expected market growth, and a large product offer have in fact forced companies to be more innovative than ever. As a consequence the whole PV chain, from polysilicon producers to module manufacturers, is working on new technical solutions to reach grid parity and finally make PV a competitive renewable energy source.

Government incentives as well as new power grid structure (e.g. smart grid) will contribute, in the coming years, in making PV a viable alternative to conventional energy sources such as coal or nuclear. As cost reduction has become one of the top priorities for equipment and material suppliers, we are today seeing them partnering with cell manufacturers to pull production cost down.

Worldwide investments in R&D as well as in cell production capacity have reached an unprecedented level. Cell manufacturers will start benefiting from economies of scale in the coming years, but innovation in the field of material and equipment will remain a key parameter to sustain the growth. Manufacturers will develop more and more new technologies based on well‐established techniques from various industries such as semiconductor, display, printing, glass, etc.

Even with a slowdown in the fourth quarter of 2008, the market, boosted by demand for thin‐film equipment, was incredibly high that year. “We estimate that total revenue for equipment exceeded 2.7 Billion Euros. Until the end of 2009 and during 2010, because of strong overcapacities, total revenue is forecast to decrease by 45 percent compared to 2008 to 1.5 Billion Euros”, explains Gaetan Rull, Market Analyst at Yole Développement.

Market demand is forecast to come back after 2010 and will progressively impact the production sites by increasing the fab utilization rates. Investments in fab extensions and related equipment are expected to follow in 2011 although they will arrive with a slight time lag behind the demand increase.

PV equipment market: what has been changed?
• A large number of companies invested in polysilicon manufacturing capacity
For example, incumbents such as Hemlock, Wacker and REC are in the process of doubling or even tripling their production capacity while keeping a low manufacturing cost.

Moreover, motivated by a silicon shortage and high prepayments, a lot of new players have purchased Siemens‐type equipment and entered the market in 2009: DC Chemical, LDK, GCL Poly Energy, etc.

Yole Développement also observed new developments in low‐cost technologies such as Fluidized Bed Reactor with players like AE polysilicon, MEMC, or Peaksun, upgraded metallurgical grade promoted by Becancour, 6N Silicon, Dow Corning, etc.

• The thin‐film industry has also seen major announcements
Both companies, Nanosolar or Solyndra, set performance at the next level up while decrease the cost per watt. Thanks to revolutionary cell designs and new production concepts, the firms are now positioning themselves as challengers to First Solar.

First Solar, considered by many as a true game‐changer, definitely demonstrated its strong leadership and managed to build a Giga‐Watt factory in just a few years.

• New alliances have been signed in 2009
Yole Développement followed the various trends and alliances created by the entrance of Applied Materials, Oerlikon Solar, Ulvac and the other OEMs.

After a large run after thin‐film equipment, a lower demand and a decrease of the silicon price, Yole Développement noticed a real impact on sales in this domain.

Absence of turnaround in PV market impacts ersol's earnings in H1-09

ERFURT, BRUSSELS: ersol Solar Energy AG (ersol), a company of the Bosch Group, increased its consolidated revenue to € 72.9 million in the second quarter of 2009.
Compared with the same period of the previous year (€ 129.9 million), consolidated revenue was thus down by 43.9 percent.

The main reasons for this dramatic slump are the generally adverse market situation -- particularly in international business -– the general slackening of demand, combined with a significant drop in solar module and cell prices and the weaker project business due to the financial market crisis.

Accordingly, the distribution of the ersol Group's revenue by region shows a significant downturn in its international business. The Company's export ratio decreased by 55.4 percentage points, from 72.6 percent in the corresponding period of the previous year to 17.2 percent in the first six months of 2009.

Germany thus accounted for an 82.8 percent share of revenue in the first six months of 2009 (6 months 2008: 27.4 percent). The rest of Europe accounted for 9.6 percent of revenue. Spain's decision to limit its subsidisation of PV plant expansion to 0.5 GWp in 2009 led to a decrease in its share of revenue to 0.1 percent (6 months 2008: 17.7 percent).

The operating result (EBIT) of € -10.6 million was significantly lower than that achieved in the same period of the previous year (€ 22.4 million). Upon separate review of the second quarter of 2009, EBIT amounts to € -13.7 million, thus the decline in this result is mainly attributable to the persistently negative market trend. The EBIT margin decreased in the same way, from 17.2 percent in the year-ago period to -14.5 percent in the first six months of 2009.

Earnings before taxes (EBT) fell significantly compared with the previous year, from € 18.6 million down to € -13.4 million. Net cash flow from operating activities (operative cash flow) amounted to € 70.3 million in the first six months of 2009, corresponding to an increase of € 57.8 million, compared with € 12.5 million in the same period of the previous year.

The change compared with the first six months of 2008 is mainly attributable to the negative operating result and to the significant increase in inventories due to the poor demand for solar modules. Conversely, there was a substantial reduction in interest expenses, which almost halved due to the fall in interest rates.

Outlook
The current market situation has not left ersol unscathed. Sustained price pressure due to surplus capacities and a change in the market to a buyers' market are reflected in short-term forecasts.

"Our company's figures for 2009 will show significantly less growth than originally anticipated. We are now expecting revenue of less than € 300 million and a negative operating result (EBIT).

"This decline is mainly attributable to the slump in the overall market compared with 2008, due in particular to massive cuts in the Spanish photovoltaic market, the worst global economic crisis for decades and the considerable surplus of solar modules and cells this resulted in, which led to extreme price pressure and, ultimately, to a considerable drop in prices of up to 30 percent in the first six months of 2009.

"Furthermore, the credit crunch that persists due to the financial crisis is curbing the global project business," says ersol's CEO, Holger von Hebel, describing the current market situation and the outlook for the financial year as a whole.

Nevertheless, the medium-term and long-term outlook for the sector remains positive, since regenerative energies, and thus photovoltaics, will play an important role in the future energy mix.

In addition to Southern Europe, future markets include in particular North America and Asia, above all China, which is aiming to drive forward the expansion of renewable energies with substantial government support.

"There is no doubt that we face major challenges; but, as a highly innovative company with an integrated value chain, ersol will play a key role in the future photovoltaic market.

"We are essentially holding firm to our current expansion plans; only the run-up of the new capacities will be adjusted in line with the short-term demand situation. We have secured financing for our expansion plans through group loans, and our application for EU subsidies has been approved," he added.

Global PV market forecast to 2013

DUBLIN, IRELAND: Research and Markets has announced the addition of the "Global Photovoltaic Market Forecast to 2013" report to its offering.

The high volatility of oil prices, coupled with increasing concerns over the CO2 emissions worldwide, has led to the evolution of renewable energy concept over the past few years.

Use of solar photovoltaic (PV) among others, has emerged as the most appropriate solutions and has continuously been gaining considerable attention among industry players all across the globe. With the growing demand for clean energy sources, the manufacturing and deployment of solar PV cells and photovoltaic arrays have expanded dramatically in the recent years.

According to our latest research report, "Global Photovoltaic Market Forecast to 2013," the global PV industry has been propelled by the consistent efforts and investment from European countries, followed by Japan and the US. As a result, the cumulative PV installed capacity in Europe surpassed 9 GW in 2008, with Germany and Spain collectively accounting for more than 90 percent of the total capacity as of the end of 2008.

The increasing demand for PV system installations has also led to the rapid development of solar cell manufacturing worldwide. In this regard, countries in the Asia-Pacific region, such as China and Taiwan, have gained significant traction in recent years.

China, for instance, produced over 2 GW of solar cells during 2008, and is forecasted to see a CAGR of more than 50 percent in the next few years. We have also found that traditionally, high cost of deploying PV cells had been the major roadblock for the development of the global PV industry.

However, with the constantly declining cost of PV production, the industry is set to pave the way for the deployment of this technology, mainly in the developing economies.

PV market to contract in 2009

WELLINGBOROUGH, UK: According to IMS Research’s latest analysis, the global PV market is set to contract for the first time in 2009 in terms of new installations.

IMS Research’s ongoing analysis shows that although the PV market doubled in 2008 in MW terms, a contraction in shipments is anticipated in 2009. This will be caused by the sudden drop-off in demand from Spain, with its newly implemented 500MW cap.

This is likely to result in a shortfall of some 1.5-2GW in 2009. Although this will in part be counter-balanced by growth in Italy and Eastern Europe, the dramatic decline of the Spanish market will lead to an overall drop in worldwide shipments.

Research Analyst Sam Wilkinson commented: “Despite credit issues, most major PV markets look healthy and are showing promise of significant growth. However, even if their countries’ solar capacities grow at the high levels they saw in 2008, they cannot make up for the unprecedented contraction that the Spanish market will see this year.”

Wilkinson added, “Many analysts are now predicting a decline in PV module revenues this year; IMS Research, having analysed the likely performance of individual countries, believes that MW shipments will also be lower.”

In spite of this, underlying demand for PV remains very healthy; long term, double-digit annual growth rates can be expected.

The market is likely to see dramatic changes in the next few years, with the emergence of new technologies such as micro-inverters; and the development of new and attractive regional markets such as the US, which to date has made up a low proportion of the overall global market.

Difficulties in obtaining financing will restrain US market growth this year. However, in the medium term it is anticipated to become one of the largest markets for PV.