As for the quarterly average price, the average price for Q2 is $1.39 per watt, compared to $1.3 per watt in Q1, a 7.2 percent increase. For Q3 price, EnergyTrend estimated that it could reach to $1.43 per watt, QoQ2, 87 percent.
In addition to ascending solar prices, EnergyTrend observed that the market prices of wafer and polysilicon began to rise simultaneously. Based on EnergyTrend’s analysis, affected by the wafer capacity shortage, spot price of wafer is $4 per piece, but the actual transaction price is still in the range between $3.5 to $3.7; in polysilicon, the current market price is $60 per kilogram, which, for the first time since 2009Q4, it rebounded to $60 per kilogram.Reviewing the average Q2 price, the average price of polysilicon maintained at around $55 per kilogram, with an increase of 3.8 percent QoQ; the silicon wafer has an average price of $3.5 per piece, an increase of 16.7 percent QoQ.
Looking at the third quarter, subject to strong market demand and insufficient wafer capacity, EnergyTrend estimated the silicon wafer price will continue to rise; the average price in Q3 will reach $3.7 per piece, while the price of polysilicon will reach to $57 per kilogram.
In the development of the industry, large organizations’ investment in the market, as well as the rise of niche markets, have become the most talked about issues in the industry, indicated EnergyTrend.As bigger players in the industry are getting bigger, 1GW is the basic requirement for c-Si solar cell companies’ production capacity.
According to statistics, out of the top 10 solar-cell factories in 2009, except First Solar, all are silicon solar cell manufacturers. According to EnergyTrend’s interviews, manufacturers with 1GW capacity will have greater purchasing advantages and lower manufacturing costs, compared to thoses ones with smaller capacities.
Therefore, 1GW will be the basic requirement of first-tier makers in 2010; whether it is China's Suntech, Yingli, or Trina Solar, or Taiwan’s Motech, Gintech, Neo Solar, the capacity allocation is targeted at 1GW.
In addition to traditional solar manufacturers, Samsung, LG, AU Optronics, Taiwan Semiconductor and other major manufacturers have also entered the solar industry.
Meanwhile, Taiwan's electronic manufacturers have joined different parts of solar energy industry chain through re-investment and joint venture. According to EnergyTrend’s observation, electronic manufacturers have heavily invested in systems and the EPC.For example, the Delta Group has achieved outstanding results in systems through careful strategy and the power system.
In addition to traditional applications, the niche market has become a major focus for the new market makers which resulted in thin film technology rising a few years ago. However, in the second half of 2008, the market suddenly reversed because of strong demand and material shortage.
The efficiency and price of thin film technology could not compete with that of traditional silicon, and by using the properties of the thin film to find a new niche market has become a market strategy of thin film makers. Products such as BIPV, and the awning for outdoor activities, automotive, and agricultural are products developed in this niche market.
On the other hand, firms also used one of the characteristics of thin film, in which its power generations is better in low light than traditional silicon, and invested in the development of related technologies and products, creating a new Blue Ocean market. The better example of such investment is AURIA’s Moon Technology.
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