3Q solar cell prices end rising streak

TAIWAN: Recent solar cell market is focused on price fluctuations as well as supply and demand changes. According to EnergyTrend, a research division of Trendforce Corp., the rising streak of solar cell prices will likely end in 3Q10. In terms of supply and demand, demand will weaken in short term.

In light of 2Q10 street price trend, the quotes maintain an uptrend from April to June. The average growth rate is close to 4 percent in both April and May and slipped to 1.5 percent in June. EnergyTrend estimates that the average price in 2Q10 is 1.41 USD/Wp, up 8.7 percent from 1Q.

As for 3Q10, EnergyTrend believes the solar cell price will maintain the same as that in June under the influence of European economy and the average price will likely rise by 1.7 percent.EnergyTrend says that manufacturers are worried about the future development of European market though current demand remains strong. As solar installations in European market depend on subsidy policies, the observation of latest Eurozone economic indicators lead manufacturers to hold a conservative attitude toward whether installations in the European market can reach the initial estimates in the beginning of the year.

LIBOR and EURIBOR has been trending up since April, indicating market concerns that systematic risks still linger in the European financial sector and will further affect the entire economic development in Europe. In this case, the amount of policy subsidies will be substantially impacted, thus actual installations would not be able to reach goals set in the policies.

According to EnergyTrend’s survey, the major markets this year, such as Germany, Italy, Czech Republic and France will all adjust subsidies in the next year. Although the amount reduction is not yet decided, an adjustment is inevitable, so part of the demand in the first half of next year will come earlier in 4Q10, likely to see a stronger than usual weak season in 4Q10, but the demand will substnatially weaken in 1H11.

Regarding the global solar energy industry and its development this year, EnergyTrend remarks that group development in the global energy industry is a foregone conclusion. Moreover, there will be more group investment in the next one to three years from large groups like Samsung, LG, AUO or TSMC.

Major electronic makers in Taiwan also begin to invest in different parts of the solar energy industry chain by means of sub-investment or joint venture. According to EnergyTrend’s observations, system and EPC have won relatively high investment from large electronics makers. Delta Electronics, for example, with related past experiences in electric systems, has delivered pleasing performance through careful planning in the system aspect.