Understanding solar PV cost and financing estimators

Intersolar North America 2010, SAN JOSE, USA: SolarTech announced the release of an extensive report on publicly available solar financial calculators. This is a major step forward in SolarTech’s efforts to drive down financial transaction costs for solar PV with a comprehensive survey of the “state of the art.”

This work was sponsored by SolarTech Finance Committee in partnership with the Gary J. Sbona Honors Program at San Jose State University (SJSU) School of Business, and a California Energy Commission PIER Grant.

All solar projects come down to three simple questions: 1) what is the resulting cost per kilo watt-hour as compared to other procurement options; 2) what is the expected return on investment; and 3) what cash-flows or payback period can we promise investors? To facilitate the answers to these questions numerous calculators have been developed, both public and private.

However, these calculators don’t often agree on the resulting electrical production and financial payback claims. “When customers receive conflicting quotes from different project sponsors this causes confusion in the buying process,” said Todd Grenich, Managing Partner, Grenich Capital, LLC and Finance Committee Chair. “The industry needs tools and methods that are predictable and build customer confidence in what is still a nascent growing industry.”

A survey of existing financial calculators in the public domain is step one in developing an understanding of the “state of the art.” Then offering recommendations to tool developers that would be helpful improvements for users. SolarTech engaged the Accounting and Finance department at SJSU to study the various financial calculators available in the public domain.

A team of three students in the Sbona Honors Program agreed to conduct a survey and analysis as part of their senior class project requirement. After considerable research, including interviews with industry experts, the leading contender was NREL’s Solar Advisor Model. The Clean Power Estimator, RETScreen, and the NCSC Solar PV Financial Calculator were close seconds.

More important are the lessons in best practices and model capabilities that next generation tool developers can derive from an examination of all of the available calculators. Each estimator had one or two superior elements and the ideal tool would pull ideas from all of them.

Financial payback in solar is very critical to an accurate estimation of the production potential of the proposed solar PV project. The SolarTech Performance committee has been working on this closely related issue and will be introducing the industry’s first Solar Energy Estimate (SEE) Report at the Intersolar North American conference, on July 12, 2010.

“Our goal for the Solar Energy Estimate Report is to move the conversation from cost per Watt to cost per kilo Watt-hour,” said Tim Keating, Vice President of Marketing, Skyline Solar and Performance Chair. “Similar in concept to EPA’s standard formatting for MPG, it moves the solar industry towards the day when standardized metrics and results presentation will establish the necessary consumer buying confidence to grow the market.”

The Performance Committee is also supported by another student intern team from SJSU. “SolarTech has been fortunate to enjoy the services of several undergraduate and graduate teams over the last two years,” said Doug Payne, Executive Director of SolarTech.

“The new green economy workforce isn’t just about installation on the roof.” SolarTech has studied and believes in aligning workforce development at all phases of the Solar PV Value Chain. The Workforce Committee first introduced SolarTech’s Framework for Industry Workforce Development at the 2009 Workforce Symposium.