Solar market demand increased, but price remained low still

TAIWAN: EnergyTrend recently discovered among PV manufacturers a common sentiment of “evident increased demand while price remained low”. According to this week’s survey, the spot price remained stable, compared with that of last week. The price stopped falling to new low, signaling a market bottom.

In addition, manufacturers across supply chain, including mid and small solar cell manufacturers, started to see increased orders, inferring that recovery of market demand of 3Q11 may be in sight.Source: EnergyTrend, Taiwan.

According to EnergyTrend’s survey, the lowest polysilicon price reached $48/kg, and the average price declined by 1.16 percent to $51.0/kg. In addition, the average prices of multi-Si wafer and Mono-Si wafer respectively declined by 4.21 percent and 0.28 percent to $2.002/piece and $2.5/piece. Moreover, the lowest solar cell price remained at $0.75/Watt, and average price dropped by 0.25 percent to $0.803/Watt.

Solar cell manufacturers pointed out that clients now request high conversion efficiency, which caused increasing mono-Si solar cell demand. As a result, the mono-Si cell price barely decreased. Furthermore, the average module price still stayed at $1.293/Watt, and manufacturers indicated that inventory clearance is still in the process, but the price has stabilized, which will help the price stabilization of 3Q11.

EnergyTrend believes that the European debt crisis has temporarily lessened, which can help the recovery of the European market demand. Total installation volume from March to May in Germany has set a record low, and manufacturers intentionally lowered the volume in an attempt to influence German government’s planned subsidy cut in the mid year. Therefore, it is expected that the cut might be smaller than previously planned if not totally foregone.

On the other hand, Italy will announce the list of manufacturers for 1.2 GW solar project plan in mid July, which can further help the European market demand of 3Q11. Apart from the European market, the US market also will receive enormous benefit from the new subsidy plan, making the US solar market demand remain strong. The Japanese government, on the other hand, plans to increase the use of renewable energy, which will help the domestic market development.

In addition, China and India, two major emerging solar markets, are also expected to start materializing their market potentials. EnergyTrend believes that the recovery of major global markets altogether will reverse the price downtrend in 3Q11.