Solar market demand poised for rebound; Inventory clearance and capital market condition hold sway

TAIWAN: According to EnergyTrend’s latest survey, the market price decline has slowed down, while demand showed some signs of recovery. In terms of polysilicon price, the lowest price has come to $47/kg, but the main closing price has stabilized.

In terms of silicon wafer and solar cell, although the price continued to drop, the extent has narrowed. As for module, the price only decreased slightly, compared with that of last week. In addition, the inventory problem still exists. EnergyTrend found that top-tier manufacturers have increased their production utilization and taken a positive attitude toward the market demand of 2H11. EnergyTrend believes that the market demand is poising for a recovery in 2H11, but it requires close attention to track the extent.Source: EnergyTrend, Taiwan.

According to EnergyTrend, the lowest price of polysilicon has come to $47/kg, and the average price has decreased by 1.30 percent to $51.6/kg. In terms of wafer, the average price of multi-Si wafer and mono-Si wafer respectively declined by 4.52 percent and 3.65 percent to $2.09/piece and $2.505/Watt. The spot market price remained low because of the currently low contract price.

As for solar cell, the lowest spot price remained at $0.75/Watt, but the average price merely decreased by 2.31 percent to $0.805/Watt. Moreover, the average price of module has continuously declined by 0.39 percent to $1.293/Watt, but the lowest price stayed at $1.25/Watt.

Therefore, EnergyTrend believes that inventory clearance still takes time, and the speed of inventory clearance depends on the market recovery. In addition, the lowest price of PV inverter has come to $0.19/Watt, and the average price slightly dropped by 1.24 percent to $0.239/Watt.

EnergyTrend believes that global capital market condition, especially the Euro zone, will have an influence on solar industry in 2H11. Since the European market is still the largest market for solar energy and the solar market demand is closely tied to the capital market, the financial health of European countries will directly affect the outlook of solar market.

On the other hand, British banks have withdrawn considerably huge funds from the short-term loan market of Euro zone. The Euro zone might encounter a credit crunch, and banks without sufficient capital might have to file bankruptcy, leading to another financial crisis. As a result, it is possible that the stagnated solar market demand caused by the 2008 financial crisis will be repeated.