DEVENS, USA: American Superconductor Corp., a global energy technologies company, has formed AMSC India to serve India’s rapidly growing wind energy and power grid markets with AMSC’s power electronics and superconductor-based solutions. With its regional head office in Delhi and a service office in Pune, it will provide local applications engineering, sales, business development, and field service support.
“India is beginning to tap into its renewable energy resources and is making significant investments to vastly improve the throughput and reliability of its power grid,” said Greg Yurek, founder and chief executive officer of AMSC.
“Our advanced power electronics and superconductor solutions are well positioned to address these needs both in the near and long term. AMSC India has been formed to provide high-quality local technical support for our new wind power customers and build a strong foundation for future sales into India’s broader renewable energy and power grid markets.”
According to the World Bank, roughly 40 percent of residences in India are without electricity, and blackouts are a common occurrence throughout the country’s main cities. To address this shortfall, the Indian government has established an ambitious “Power for All by 2012” plan that will require the country’s installed generation capacity to grow from 140,000 megawatts (MW) to nearly 225,000 MW by 2012. It also will require billions of dollars of investment in India’s transmission and distribution infrastructure.
According to the Global Wind Energy Council’s Global Wind 2008 Report, India now ranks fifth in the world in terms of total installed wind power capacity. Capacity in the country grew by 22 percent in 2008 to 9,600 MW. The Indian Wind Energy Association estimates that the country has 65,000 MW of wind power potential.
AMSC’s first two wind turbine manufacturing customers in India are Ghodawat Energy Limited and Inox Wind Limited. Both licensed AMSC Windtec turbine designs within the past 18 months. AMSC, which is the exclusive power electronic system supplier for all Ghodawat and Inox wind turbines, announced today that it has received initial orders for five wind turbine electrical systems from Ghodawat and three wind turbine electrical systems from Inox.
Ghodawat, based in Kolhapur in the state of Maharashtra, India, will use the electrical systems for its initial production of 1.65 MW wind turbines designed by AMSC Windtec. Ghodawat, in collaboration with AMSC Windtec and AMSC India, has successfully erected and tested its first reference 1.65 MW wind turbine.
Inox, located in Noida in the state of Uttar Pradesh, India, plans to begin volume production of 2 MW wind turbines designed by AMSC Windtec in 2010. Inox is in the process of collaborating with AMSC Windtec and AMSC India to erect its first reference wind turbine prior to initiation of volume production in 2010.
Showing posts with label India. Show all posts
Showing posts with label India. Show all posts
Wednesday, September 9, 2009
Tuesday, September 1, 2009
Indian government, solar industry interact on MNRE’s solar PV program
India’s Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE) had recently announced a unified solar photovoltaic (SPV) program to promote the use of decentralised SPV systems for various applications in rural/ urban areas and SPV roof top systems for diesel saving in urban areas.
To promote this program, the MNRE organized a one-day seminar today, in New Delhi, along with the India Semiconductor Association (ISA), and the Indian Renewable Energy Development Agency Ltd (IREDA), to share the modalities for the implementation of the program with the concerned stakeholders such as manufacturers of solar PV modules and equipment, system integrators, service providers, consultants, banks and financial institutions, and reputed NGOs. A government-industry interaction on the MNRE’s program was also intiated during the event.
Welcoming the delegates, Poornima Shenoy, president, ISA, stressed on the very strong partnership between the MNRE and the ISA. She added that this workshop was a first in a series of such workshops that will be held across the country. She requested the delegates to add as much value as possible to this edition, adding, “We look forward to your feedback, so that we can improve on our future programs.”
Source: ISA
Industry-government interaction step in right direction
B.V. Naidu, chairman, ISA said that it was good to be part of a new revolution taking place in India. He added: “We have seen the success of the Indian IT industry and the Indian semiconductor design sector. That the MNRE is organizing an industry interaction on solar photovoltaics is a step in the right direction.” Naidu noted that India has all the features required for becoming a successful solar country.
Incidentally, the current installed capacity of solar PV is said to be over 400-500MW, but about 90 percent of that capacity is exported. As a case, in Germany, 4 percent of the overall power generation capacity has been generated out of solar. A lot of emphasis on solar PV also been happening in the USA and Chima.
Naidu added: “The Government of India has set an ambitious target of reaching 20GW by 2020. A lot of things need to be done in the country, and by the Indian solar PV industry. We are also looking at an equal amount of participation from the academia, so that we can look at ways of reducing costs and improving the efficiency of solar PV.
The ISA has already created the roadmap for the FabCity in Hyderabad. It is also organizing a solar conference in Hyderabad this November.
Solar to assure green technology in India
Dr B.M.S. Bist, Advisor, MNRE, said that solar PV is going to play a big role in assuring green technology in the country. A date of Nov. 14 has been set for Solar Mission Program, as already mentioned.
The MNRE’s focus has been at decentralized programs. Today, there are said to be 75MW of systems across the country. Dr. Bist added that significant targets have been set for the SPV systems. The ministry has now tried to make new schemes. These will be presented to the delegates and their views welcomed. Those views will be compiled and the ministry will revert to the industry, so both of them can march together.
Massive potential for solar PV in India
Addressing the delegates, Debashish Majumdar, chairman and managing director, IREDA, said the reason for the gathering today was very clear – what exists on the MNRE website is potential for renewable energy. However, it does not really highlight the potential for solar PV, which is massive!
He added: “When solar PV started about 15 years ago in India, we had small manufacturers starting in garages, etc., and who have now grown to become very large companies. It gives us a lot of hope that things can be done very well here as well. Any new technology, to begin with, is expensive. Therefore, it is the prerogative of the rich to adopt it. We all hope that we will have the volumes and the technologies that can be replicated in India.
“We look at solar from two aspects — off-grid and on-grid. We would like to see what kind of demand can we convert in the off-grid applications. In the subsequent session, we will see the steps that the ministry has taken. The policy has been made keeping the best interests of the industry. We would like to get your feedback and see how best to get the market going.”
Huge opportunity in off-grid applications
Ms Gauri Singh, IAS, joint secretary, MNRE said that the purpose of this interaction between the government and the industry is to give a loud and clear message to ind that “we would like to work with you as partners.”
She added: “A large portion of the solar mission target will come from grid connected solar power. However, the off-grid opportunity is also huge. We have tried to open up our policy slightly — and take the whole process forward by taking inputs from you — and open up the policy for suggestions. One part of the scenario is — we already have large manufacturers who can provide us solar modules. The other part — is our policy encouraging innovation.
“Now, the time is ripe where we can do only the broad technical specifications, etc., but leave the innovation and configuration of the off-grid solutions to the industry, and make it an enabling flavor.” She also called for a need to put out a third party monitoring system.
She further added that the MNRE was also working to see whether it could get the IREDA into a refinance operation with banks.
There are schemes in place, where if anyone wants to work with a bank, a lot of incentives are available to the banks. Now, the ministry would like to see incentives being given to the manufacturers.
This is an honest attempt on part of the MNRE to work closely with the industry. Hopefully, everything will go well, following this interaction as it will sow the right seeds toward reaping a full harvest — in shape of achieving the very ambitious target of the national solar mission plan!
There were presentations on the following topics as well:
* Details of the solar PV off-grid program (rooftop systems) — Dr. AK Varshney, MNRE
* Details of the solar PV off-grid program (other applications) — Dr. A. Raza, MNRE
* Financing of IREDA schemes for solar — BV Rao, IREDA
These presentations were followed by a marathon discussion between the MNRE and IREDA officials on behalf of the government of India and the members of the Indian solar photovoltaics industry.
To promote this program, the MNRE organized a one-day seminar today, in New Delhi, along with the India Semiconductor Association (ISA), and the Indian Renewable Energy Development Agency Ltd (IREDA), to share the modalities for the implementation of the program with the concerned stakeholders such as manufacturers of solar PV modules and equipment, system integrators, service providers, consultants, banks and financial institutions, and reputed NGOs. A government-industry interaction on the MNRE’s program was also intiated during the event.
Welcoming the delegates, Poornima Shenoy, president, ISA, stressed on the very strong partnership between the MNRE and the ISA. She added that this workshop was a first in a series of such workshops that will be held across the country. She requested the delegates to add as much value as possible to this edition, adding, “We look forward to your feedback, so that we can improve on our future programs.”
Source: ISAIndustry-government interaction step in right direction
B.V. Naidu, chairman, ISA said that it was good to be part of a new revolution taking place in India. He added: “We have seen the success of the Indian IT industry and the Indian semiconductor design sector. That the MNRE is organizing an industry interaction on solar photovoltaics is a step in the right direction.” Naidu noted that India has all the features required for becoming a successful solar country.
Incidentally, the current installed capacity of solar PV is said to be over 400-500MW, but about 90 percent of that capacity is exported. As a case, in Germany, 4 percent of the overall power generation capacity has been generated out of solar. A lot of emphasis on solar PV also been happening in the USA and Chima.
Naidu added: “The Government of India has set an ambitious target of reaching 20GW by 2020. A lot of things need to be done in the country, and by the Indian solar PV industry. We are also looking at an equal amount of participation from the academia, so that we can look at ways of reducing costs and improving the efficiency of solar PV.
The ISA has already created the roadmap for the FabCity in Hyderabad. It is also organizing a solar conference in Hyderabad this November.
Solar to assure green technology in India
Dr B.M.S. Bist, Advisor, MNRE, said that solar PV is going to play a big role in assuring green technology in the country. A date of Nov. 14 has been set for Solar Mission Program, as already mentioned.
The MNRE’s focus has been at decentralized programs. Today, there are said to be 75MW of systems across the country. Dr. Bist added that significant targets have been set for the SPV systems. The ministry has now tried to make new schemes. These will be presented to the delegates and their views welcomed. Those views will be compiled and the ministry will revert to the industry, so both of them can march together.
Massive potential for solar PV in India
Addressing the delegates, Debashish Majumdar, chairman and managing director, IREDA, said the reason for the gathering today was very clear – what exists on the MNRE website is potential for renewable energy. However, it does not really highlight the potential for solar PV, which is massive!
He added: “When solar PV started about 15 years ago in India, we had small manufacturers starting in garages, etc., and who have now grown to become very large companies. It gives us a lot of hope that things can be done very well here as well. Any new technology, to begin with, is expensive. Therefore, it is the prerogative of the rich to adopt it. We all hope that we will have the volumes and the technologies that can be replicated in India.
“We look at solar from two aspects — off-grid and on-grid. We would like to see what kind of demand can we convert in the off-grid applications. In the subsequent session, we will see the steps that the ministry has taken. The policy has been made keeping the best interests of the industry. We would like to get your feedback and see how best to get the market going.”
Huge opportunity in off-grid applications
Ms Gauri Singh, IAS, joint secretary, MNRE said that the purpose of this interaction between the government and the industry is to give a loud and clear message to ind that “we would like to work with you as partners.”
She added: “A large portion of the solar mission target will come from grid connected solar power. However, the off-grid opportunity is also huge. We have tried to open up our policy slightly — and take the whole process forward by taking inputs from you — and open up the policy for suggestions. One part of the scenario is — we already have large manufacturers who can provide us solar modules. The other part — is our policy encouraging innovation.
“Now, the time is ripe where we can do only the broad technical specifications, etc., but leave the innovation and configuration of the off-grid solutions to the industry, and make it an enabling flavor.” She also called for a need to put out a third party monitoring system.
She further added that the MNRE was also working to see whether it could get the IREDA into a refinance operation with banks.
There are schemes in place, where if anyone wants to work with a bank, a lot of incentives are available to the banks. Now, the ministry would like to see incentives being given to the manufacturers.
This is an honest attempt on part of the MNRE to work closely with the industry. Hopefully, everything will go well, following this interaction as it will sow the right seeds toward reaping a full harvest — in shape of achieving the very ambitious target of the national solar mission plan!
There were presentations on the following topics as well:
* Details of the solar PV off-grid program (rooftop systems) — Dr. AK Varshney, MNRE
* Details of the solar PV off-grid program (other applications) — Dr. A. Raza, MNRE
* Financing of IREDA schemes for solar — BV Rao, IREDA
These presentations were followed by a marathon discussion between the MNRE and IREDA officials on behalf of the government of India and the members of the Indian solar photovoltaics industry.
Tuesday, August 25, 2009
India to host next International Renewable Energy Conference in New Delhi
NEW DELHI, INDIA: India will host the next International Renewable Energy Conference (DIREC, 2010) during October 27-29, 2010 at New Delhi.
Speaking to the press and media recently, after inaugurating the 3rd India Renewable Energy Expo, Deepak Gupta, Secretary, Ministry of New and Renewable Energy said that the Conference in Delhi is a part of initiative taken at the 2002 World Summit on Sustainable Development in Johannesburg acknowledging the significance of renewable energies for sustainable development -– especially for combating poverty and for environmental and climate protection.
The Delhi Conference is the fourth in the series, following events at Washington in 2008, Beijing in 2005 and Bonn in 2004 and is expected to be the premier all-Renewables gathering in India ever, with an attendance of over 9,000 delegates, over 250 industry leading speakers, experts, academicians, government leaders, financial institutions and around 500 exhibitors from all over the world, which will make it the largest event of its kind.
Gupta said the Conference aims to showcase India as an investment destination for renewable energy; to provide a platform for technology displays, new applications and innovations; to display global research & development with respect to climate change and green environment; to demonstrate the sectoral strength of the global renewable energy industry; and to facilitate: (i) buyers and sellers matching (ii) one to one meetings for setting up of joint ventures in the Renewable Energy Sector and (iii) to provide an opportunity to Indian Renewables Manufacturers to benchmark their products against the best in the world and enhance their competitiveness.
The Conference will ultimately lead to renewed commitment, with concrete proposals in support of activities at the country level.
The DIREC 2010 will build on the success of the previous conferences with the support of National and International Sponsors. REN21 — the Renewable Energy Network — will be a key partner in the DIREC, 2010. Cabinet-level government functionaries from a number of countries will join civil society partners and private sector leaders to discuss the opportunities and challenges of a global, rapid deployment of renewable energy. The conference will bring together ministers, high-level decision makers and policy level thinkers from a number of participating countries.
DIREC, 2010 offers industry leaders the ability to share their insights, strategies, technologies, new products and staff capabilities with their audiences. The main Theme of the DIREC, 2010 is: “Upscaling and Mainstreaming Renewables for Energy Security and Climate Change”.
The Ministry of New and Renewable Energy will host the event, assisted by other concerned agencies and looks forward to co-operating with REN-21 and relevant national and international stakeholders, Gupta said.
Speaking to the press and media recently, after inaugurating the 3rd India Renewable Energy Expo, Deepak Gupta, Secretary, Ministry of New and Renewable Energy said that the Conference in Delhi is a part of initiative taken at the 2002 World Summit on Sustainable Development in Johannesburg acknowledging the significance of renewable energies for sustainable development -– especially for combating poverty and for environmental and climate protection.
The Delhi Conference is the fourth in the series, following events at Washington in 2008, Beijing in 2005 and Bonn in 2004 and is expected to be the premier all-Renewables gathering in India ever, with an attendance of over 9,000 delegates, over 250 industry leading speakers, experts, academicians, government leaders, financial institutions and around 500 exhibitors from all over the world, which will make it the largest event of its kind.
Gupta said the Conference aims to showcase India as an investment destination for renewable energy; to provide a platform for technology displays, new applications and innovations; to display global research & development with respect to climate change and green environment; to demonstrate the sectoral strength of the global renewable energy industry; and to facilitate: (i) buyers and sellers matching (ii) one to one meetings for setting up of joint ventures in the Renewable Energy Sector and (iii) to provide an opportunity to Indian Renewables Manufacturers to benchmark their products against the best in the world and enhance their competitiveness.
The Conference will ultimately lead to renewed commitment, with concrete proposals in support of activities at the country level.
The DIREC 2010 will build on the success of the previous conferences with the support of National and International Sponsors. REN21 — the Renewable Energy Network — will be a key partner in the DIREC, 2010. Cabinet-level government functionaries from a number of countries will join civil society partners and private sector leaders to discuss the opportunities and challenges of a global, rapid deployment of renewable energy. The conference will bring together ministers, high-level decision makers and policy level thinkers from a number of participating countries.
DIREC, 2010 offers industry leaders the ability to share their insights, strategies, technologies, new products and staff capabilities with their audiences. The main Theme of the DIREC, 2010 is: “Upscaling and Mainstreaming Renewables for Energy Security and Climate Change”.
The Ministry of New and Renewable Energy will host the event, assisted by other concerned agencies and looks forward to co-operating with REN-21 and relevant national and international stakeholders, Gupta said.
Saturday, August 1, 2009
50,000 Indian villages to receive HERMES
BOTHELL, USA: Neah Power Systems, the company leading development in fuel cells for the military and portable electronic devices, will develop methanol fuel cell battery chargers to enable the building, by EKOVEHICLES of Bangalore, India, of hybrid electric renewable micro energy stations (HERMES), bringing renewable, green energy to thousands of villages in India.
This innovative technology will use a combination of clean solar and wind power, fuel cells and batteries to replace the very polluting diesel generators that currently provide electricity for the more than 50,000 Indian villages located 200 miles or more off the grid.
Neah has signed a Letter of Intent (LOI) with EKOVEHICLES, India's number one producer of two-wheeled electric vehicles, to supply methanol fuel cell battery chargers, for renewable distributed energy stations, in addition to developing and providing on-board methanol fuel cell battery chargers for their line of battery-powered electric scooters, based on Neah's novel direct methanol fuel cell.
"Being able to bring clean, renewable, non-polluting power to thousands of Indian villages is a great privilege, and quite in alignment with Neah's business plan. We have always been focused on improving the quality of life through the creative use of our advanced technology," Dr. Chris D'Couto, Neah's CEO, said. "This distributed energy offering is an attractive solution where power is needed for off-the-grid applications."
Anil Ananthakrishna, Chairman and CEO of EKOVEHICLES Pvt Ltd., said: "EKOVEHICLES, India's pioneering manufacturer of Electric Vehicles, is introducing various alternatives to the existing petrol powered two wheelers, as well as introducing clean energy based power generation solutions.
"EKO's mission is to improve the lives of our customers in India and throughout the world with our pollution-free products. This is indeed a breakthrough for India, and eventually all countries that desire clean, renewable energy in rural areas."
This innovative technology will use a combination of clean solar and wind power, fuel cells and batteries to replace the very polluting diesel generators that currently provide electricity for the more than 50,000 Indian villages located 200 miles or more off the grid.
Neah has signed a Letter of Intent (LOI) with EKOVEHICLES, India's number one producer of two-wheeled electric vehicles, to supply methanol fuel cell battery chargers, for renewable distributed energy stations, in addition to developing and providing on-board methanol fuel cell battery chargers for their line of battery-powered electric scooters, based on Neah's novel direct methanol fuel cell.
"Being able to bring clean, renewable, non-polluting power to thousands of Indian villages is a great privilege, and quite in alignment with Neah's business plan. We have always been focused on improving the quality of life through the creative use of our advanced technology," Dr. Chris D'Couto, Neah's CEO, said. "This distributed energy offering is an attractive solution where power is needed for off-the-grid applications."
Anil Ananthakrishna, Chairman and CEO of EKOVEHICLES Pvt Ltd., said: "EKOVEHICLES, India's pioneering manufacturer of Electric Vehicles, is introducing various alternatives to the existing petrol powered two wheelers, as well as introducing clean energy based power generation solutions.
"EKO's mission is to improve the lives of our customers in India and throughout the world with our pollution-free products. This is indeed a breakthrough for India, and eventually all countries that desire clean, renewable energy in rural areas."
Friday, July 31, 2009
Spire delivers turnkey solar module manufacturing line to India's Sova
BEDFORD, USA: Spire Corp. a global solar company providing turnkey solar factories and capital equipment to manufacture photovoltaic (PV) cells, modules, and solar systems worldwide, announced that it has delivered a PV module assembly line to Sova Power Ltd in Durgapur, West Bengal, India.
Stepping up into the green and renewable energy sector, Sova, along with Spire’s industry expertise and superior equipment line, will provide a state-of-the-art PV module assembly line in India.
Spire has provided Sova with a semi-automated crystalline silicon module manufacturing line capable of producing up to 12 megawatts of solar modules per year. It will integrate Spire's key interconnect, lamination, and testing machines, along with intermediate tooling stations.
Spire will supply the process technology and training to operate the factory, as well as assistance in qualifying the factory’s modules to international standards and certification. The line is designed to be easily expandable at a later date.
“We are excited Sova has chosen Spire to provide our turnkey line solution. This order demonstrates how India is becoming a major player in the solar industry and continuously strives to be the leader,” said Roger G. Little, Chairman and CEO of Spire.
“Spire’s ability to deliver a complete solar factory, as well as the training needed to succeed in the solar market, enables companies with limited exposure to the industry to efficiently add solar module manufacturing to their business portfolio,” concluded Little.
“We are excited to work with Spire, the industry leader, on this important new venture,” said Sajal Das, CEO of Sova Power. “The solar market is expanding rapidly in India and Spire offers the quickest, most efficient path to joining the industry. We are confident that Spire’s industry expertise and superior manufacturing equipment position us for success as we integrate solar manufacturing into our existing business.”
Stepping up into the green and renewable energy sector, Sova, along with Spire’s industry expertise and superior equipment line, will provide a state-of-the-art PV module assembly line in India.
Spire has provided Sova with a semi-automated crystalline silicon module manufacturing line capable of producing up to 12 megawatts of solar modules per year. It will integrate Spire's key interconnect, lamination, and testing machines, along with intermediate tooling stations.
Spire will supply the process technology and training to operate the factory, as well as assistance in qualifying the factory’s modules to international standards and certification. The line is designed to be easily expandable at a later date.
“We are excited Sova has chosen Spire to provide our turnkey line solution. This order demonstrates how India is becoming a major player in the solar industry and continuously strives to be the leader,” said Roger G. Little, Chairman and CEO of Spire.
“Spire’s ability to deliver a complete solar factory, as well as the training needed to succeed in the solar market, enables companies with limited exposure to the industry to efficiently add solar module manufacturing to their business portfolio,” concluded Little.
“We are excited to work with Spire, the industry leader, on this important new venture,” said Sajal Das, CEO of Sova Power. “The solar market is expanding rapidly in India and Spire offers the quickest, most efficient path to joining the industry. We are confident that Spire’s industry expertise and superior manufacturing equipment position us for success as we integrate solar manufacturing into our existing business.”
Wednesday, December 31, 2008
Outlook for solar photovoltaics in 2009!
Friends and dear readers, this is my last blog post for 2008! Indeed, what a year this has been!!
Let me bid this year goodbye with a general outlook on the global solar photovoltaics industry for 2009.
iSuppli had recently put out a report on solar eclipse coming in 2009! I had blogged about the possible solar sunburn ahead, as well, earlier last week!
Another point that has interested me is: what happens to the top 20 global solar photovoltaic companies, based on iSuppli's analysis! This blog post has perhaps been the most popular in recent times.
I was very lucky to re-associate with Dr. Henning Wicht, Senior Director, Principal Analyst, iSuppli Deutschland GmbH, in Munich, Germany, for this discussion, thanks to the efforts of Jon Cassell and Debra Jaramilla!
How bad is solar?
The first and the most obvious question: how bad is the global solar market right now and why?
According to iSuppli, bringing an end to eight consecutive years of growth, global revenue for photovoltaic (PV), panels is likely to plunge by nearly 20 percent in 2009, as a massive oversupply causes prices to drop!
Worldwide revenue from shipments of panels will decline to $12.9 billion in 2009, down 19.1 percent from $15.9 billion in 2008. A drop of this magnitude has not occurred in the last 10 years and likely has not happened in the entire history of the solar industry.
Dr. Henning Wicht says that the upstream part of the solar business (cell, module, etc.) will suffer from price decline due to strong oversupply. The downstream side will benefit (installation, end-user, investor, etc.) by lower system prices.
Therefore, what can the solar players do to get over this coming bad phase in 2009? Well, three things: improve the cost structure, improve the sales side, and diversify downstream… These points hold strong for all fully integrated and non-integrated solar panel suppliers as well. By the way, fully integrated solar panel suppliers are likely to suffer less severe losses than non-integrated competitors.
There must be some way around to to bring about some balance within the current imbalance in the demand and supply situation. While Dr. Wicht agrees this is a difficult one to answer this early, he adds that supply and demand are diverging heavily. "With the current trajectories even in 2012, 100 percent more modules are produced than installed," he says. I promise to discuss this question again with the good Dr. in another six months time.
Word of wisdom
There are various support programs in place, and it is important to know whether they will continue to remain beneficial, both to support markets to become independent sustainable and to develop the regional industry.
Dr. Wicht believes the support programs are still required and beneficial. "If China, India, Mexico and other sunny regions would start to support solar installations, that could change the picture drastically," he notes.
A note of warning for new entrants in the solar photovoltaic space! Be aware that this warning has been earlier highlighted in the global semiconductor outlook for 2009! In tune with what the various analysts have maintained earlier, iSuppli also forsees newcomers in the solar photovoltaic line having problems in getting the required credit for their projects.
What next for Europe, emerging regions?
According to iSuppli, the short-term boost in demand from Spain and Germany has kept the installation companies busy, and solar orders and module prices high. But this boom is over. So, what's next for European players?
According to Dr. Wicht, Germany and Spain should continue their leading role as solar installation regions, even after the boom. France, Italy and Czech Republic are attractive, but still much smaller markets, he maintains.
iSuppli has also mentioned that the race to larger manufacturing scale comes to an end when the production is not sold anymore! In that case, what's the case for the emerging nations, like China and India? Aren't there buyers in such places?
Dr. Wicht says: "Demand in the traditional solar markets is not elastic enough to absorb all of the solar production. Potential new markets, for example, China and India, do not yet have installation capacities and administration to significantly change the global solar demand short term."
iSuppli also feels that the newer Chinese and Taiwanese suppliers will be hit particularly hard during 2009. The reason being, many suppliers have expanded their production capacities heavily without securing equally the sales/downstream part.
Global top 20 rankings to change?
Now to the most interesting part! Most of you have read about the top 20 global solar photovoltaic suppliers. Following the iSuppli warning of a 'solar eclipse' in 2009, there is every likelihood that there will be changes in that table!
Dr. Wicht adds, "However, the top 10 companies are typically better placed than the competition regarding their cost structures, downstream integration and vertical integration."
Obama's solar plans!
Now on to yet other interesting point! The US President-elect, Barack Obama's, New Energy for America plan could well have a significant impact on the US solar industry.
The plan's provisions include:
• A federal renewable portfolio standard (RPS) that requires 10 percent of electricity consumed in the US to come from renewable sources by 2012.
• A $150 billion investment over 10 years in research, technology demonstration and commercial deployment of clean energy technology.
• Extension of production tax credits for five years to encourage renewable energy production.
• A cap-and-trade system of carbon credits to provide an incentive for businesses to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
Dr. Wicht says: "We all know that Obama is in favor of renewable energy. However, he will not change a 160 percent oversupply of solar panels in 2009."
Bumpy ride to grid parity?
On another note, and a pretty favorite one: Is it going to be a "bumpy road" to grid parity? How will the subsidies be kept going?
Dr. Wicht notes: "Subsidies will continue. It will always be a bumby road because the ramping cycles differ heavily among silicon, cells, modules and the installation capacity. Please remember that the installation business will now benefit from low module prices. It will recover some of the margins it has lost in the last years due to high module prices."
Also, up to when will polysilicon constraints last? iSuppli had earlier indicated PV strategy changes. According to Dr. Wicht, the polysilicon prices are coming down already. "Our indication from October 2008 seems to be fairly good," he says.
Lastly, will iSuppli be still sticking by solar, semicon investments being equal by 2010?
Dr. Wicht says: "Please let me cite again our interview in October: The investments for solar production raising up to several hundreds of Mio USD, up to 1 Bio $ per production site. That is coming close to a semiconductor fab. The total capex of semiconductor is still 10 times larger than PV. However, PV is rising much faster."
That will be all for this year, folks!
Look forward to sharing much more captivating moments in semiconductors, electronics, solar photovoltaics, telecom, etc., in 2009!
Wishing all of you a very happy, prosperous and successful 2009. Be safe and look after yourself! See you next year!! :)
Let me bid this year goodbye with a general outlook on the global solar photovoltaics industry for 2009.
iSuppli had recently put out a report on solar eclipse coming in 2009! I had blogged about the possible solar sunburn ahead, as well, earlier last week!
Another point that has interested me is: what happens to the top 20 global solar photovoltaic companies, based on iSuppli's analysis! This blog post has perhaps been the most popular in recent times.
I was very lucky to re-associate with Dr. Henning Wicht, Senior Director, Principal Analyst, iSuppli Deutschland GmbH, in Munich, Germany, for this discussion, thanks to the efforts of Jon Cassell and Debra Jaramilla!How bad is solar?
The first and the most obvious question: how bad is the global solar market right now and why?
According to iSuppli, bringing an end to eight consecutive years of growth, global revenue for photovoltaic (PV), panels is likely to plunge by nearly 20 percent in 2009, as a massive oversupply causes prices to drop!
Worldwide revenue from shipments of panels will decline to $12.9 billion in 2009, down 19.1 percent from $15.9 billion in 2008. A drop of this magnitude has not occurred in the last 10 years and likely has not happened in the entire history of the solar industry.
Dr. Henning Wicht says that the upstream part of the solar business (cell, module, etc.) will suffer from price decline due to strong oversupply. The downstream side will benefit (installation, end-user, investor, etc.) by lower system prices.
Therefore, what can the solar players do to get over this coming bad phase in 2009? Well, three things: improve the cost structure, improve the sales side, and diversify downstream… These points hold strong for all fully integrated and non-integrated solar panel suppliers as well. By the way, fully integrated solar panel suppliers are likely to suffer less severe losses than non-integrated competitors.
There must be some way around to to bring about some balance within the current imbalance in the demand and supply situation. While Dr. Wicht agrees this is a difficult one to answer this early, he adds that supply and demand are diverging heavily. "With the current trajectories even in 2012, 100 percent more modules are produced than installed," he says. I promise to discuss this question again with the good Dr. in another six months time.
Word of wisdom
There are various support programs in place, and it is important to know whether they will continue to remain beneficial, both to support markets to become independent sustainable and to develop the regional industry.
Dr. Wicht believes the support programs are still required and beneficial. "If China, India, Mexico and other sunny regions would start to support solar installations, that could change the picture drastically," he notes.
A note of warning for new entrants in the solar photovoltaic space! Be aware that this warning has been earlier highlighted in the global semiconductor outlook for 2009! In tune with what the various analysts have maintained earlier, iSuppli also forsees newcomers in the solar photovoltaic line having problems in getting the required credit for their projects.
What next for Europe, emerging regions?
According to iSuppli, the short-term boost in demand from Spain and Germany has kept the installation companies busy, and solar orders and module prices high. But this boom is over. So, what's next for European players?
According to Dr. Wicht, Germany and Spain should continue their leading role as solar installation regions, even after the boom. France, Italy and Czech Republic are attractive, but still much smaller markets, he maintains.
iSuppli has also mentioned that the race to larger manufacturing scale comes to an end when the production is not sold anymore! In that case, what's the case for the emerging nations, like China and India? Aren't there buyers in such places?
Dr. Wicht says: "Demand in the traditional solar markets is not elastic enough to absorb all of the solar production. Potential new markets, for example, China and India, do not yet have installation capacities and administration to significantly change the global solar demand short term."
iSuppli also feels that the newer Chinese and Taiwanese suppliers will be hit particularly hard during 2009. The reason being, many suppliers have expanded their production capacities heavily without securing equally the sales/downstream part.
Global top 20 rankings to change?
Now to the most interesting part! Most of you have read about the top 20 global solar photovoltaic suppliers. Following the iSuppli warning of a 'solar eclipse' in 2009, there is every likelihood that there will be changes in that table!
Dr. Wicht adds, "However, the top 10 companies are typically better placed than the competition regarding their cost structures, downstream integration and vertical integration."
Obama's solar plans!
Now on to yet other interesting point! The US President-elect, Barack Obama's, New Energy for America plan could well have a significant impact on the US solar industry.
The plan's provisions include:
• A federal renewable portfolio standard (RPS) that requires 10 percent of electricity consumed in the US to come from renewable sources by 2012.
• A $150 billion investment over 10 years in research, technology demonstration and commercial deployment of clean energy technology.
• Extension of production tax credits for five years to encourage renewable energy production.
• A cap-and-trade system of carbon credits to provide an incentive for businesses to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
Dr. Wicht says: "We all know that Obama is in favor of renewable energy. However, he will not change a 160 percent oversupply of solar panels in 2009."
Bumpy ride to grid parity?
On another note, and a pretty favorite one: Is it going to be a "bumpy road" to grid parity? How will the subsidies be kept going?
Dr. Wicht notes: "Subsidies will continue. It will always be a bumby road because the ramping cycles differ heavily among silicon, cells, modules and the installation capacity. Please remember that the installation business will now benefit from low module prices. It will recover some of the margins it has lost in the last years due to high module prices."
Also, up to when will polysilicon constraints last? iSuppli had earlier indicated PV strategy changes. According to Dr. Wicht, the polysilicon prices are coming down already. "Our indication from October 2008 seems to be fairly good," he says.
Lastly, will iSuppli be still sticking by solar, semicon investments being equal by 2010?
Dr. Wicht says: "Please let me cite again our interview in October: The investments for solar production raising up to several hundreds of Mio USD, up to 1 Bio $ per production site. That is coming close to a semiconductor fab. The total capex of semiconductor is still 10 times larger than PV. However, PV is rising much faster."
That will be all for this year, folks!
Look forward to sharing much more captivating moments in semiconductors, electronics, solar photovoltaics, telecom, etc., in 2009!
Wishing all of you a very happy, prosperous and successful 2009. Be safe and look after yourself! See you next year!! :)
Friday, December 26, 2008
Why solar/PV is good for India? An ISA perspective!
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Recently, the India Semiconductor Association (ISA) held an educative briefing session on the potential of the solar PV market in India, which was conducted by Rajiv Jain, Director, Government Relations, ISA.This meeting was held well before iSuppli issued a warning that there could be global solar sunburn in 2009! I am sincerely hoping that most of the points mentioned by ISA's Jain still hold good in the coming year, and that India really does well and takes off in solar photovoltaics.
The ISA's vision: To help make India an attractive global destination for PV manufacturing and a world leader in solar energy.
Starting with the basics of photovoltaics, he said that it is a package of solar cells used to convert energy from sun to electricity. In simpler words, photons from sunlight knock electrons into higher state of energy, thus creating electricity. The electricity can be used to power equipment or recharge a battery. A typical PV system mainly consists of a PV module, battery, inverter, controller and junction box.
Focusing on the technological landscape, he touched upon the two key technologies for solar: crystalline and thin film.
Crystalline silicon is said to be the most mature Si wafer technology, with the largest market share. Though, high on cost, it has a typical efficieny of 14-18 percent. Crystalline silicon is said to suitable for rooftop applications.
Thin film is nothing but thin layers of photosensitive materials on glass. It is currently on high growth due to silicon shortage, and very low on cost due to low material consumption. The efficiency is about 6.5-8 percent.
A third technology, nanotechnology, is the future technology for cost reduction. It is more in the R&D space as of now.
Present scenario for solar
So what's the present scenario? In 2007, of $71 billion invested in new renewable energy (RE) capacity globally, 30 percent was in solar PV. It is the fastest growing area in the energy sector, with a CAGR of 47 percent over the last five years.
Grid-connected solar PV has been high growth market segment in 2007 (50 percent increase). Also, 86 percent of the PV installations are largely in four countries, with Germany at 47 percent being the outright leader.
Market drivers are said to be attractive feed-in tariffs, national PV market development and acceptance, RE obligations through solar PV, access to cheaper mode of finance, manufacturing incentives as well as strong R&D.
Why solar for India
I have addressed this in an earlier blog post. Here's what Jain had to say, and it is mostly in line with the earlier discussions.
First, India has among the highest solar irradiance globally. It also has the best quality reserves of silica in Orissa and Andhra Pradesh. India has also established itself low cost producer and assembler of solar PV cells and modules.
The major challenges include attaining scale and integration for cost reduction, and, R&D for development of the industry.
Solar insolation in India
To start with, the daily average solar energy incident varies from 4-7kWh per m2. Next, we have multiple sites with solar irradiation >2000 hours per year. In contrast, Germany has 900-1,200 hours per year. Further, most parts of India have 300-300 sunny days in a year translating into a potential of 600GW. Also, potential in some states like Rajasthan is 35-40 MW per m2.
It is well known that the Indian semiconductor policy of 2007 has triggered off the now well publicized efforts in solar initiatives. The government of India has received 16 applications with investments envisaged at app Rs. 1,55,000 crores.
The investments in solar PV manufacturing exceed Rs 1,25,000 crores. Generation based incentives (GBI) are going to be key.
Potential market segments in India
There are quite a few, actually. In rural electrification, the government of India's target is to achieve 'Electricity for all by 2012'. About 18,000 remote villages will likely be electrified through RE. About ~25 percent of the remote villages, i.e., 4,500 villages, form a very viable market.
Next comes telecom back-up power! PV is a cost effective alternative to diesel generators (DG) for back up power for shorter duration, as DG based systems suffer from several disadvantages.
Another key market could be grid connected solar PV based generation. Current tariffs do not provide attractive IRR to developers. Decreasing system prices are however, likely to improve the economics.
Finally, roof based BIPV is said to be an alternative to reduce the cost of power procured by commercial buildings.
ISA's recommendations
The ISA has also made salient recommendations via its report on the industry. These include areas such as manufacturing: with an aim to encourage companies investing in 'Scale and integration', provision of capital subsidy to larger number of units, availability of funds at a cheaper rate, and an emphasis on R&D.
Also, the ISA has recommended that GBI be given for a tenure of 20 years, with the present period being 10 years. Further, it has suggested an accelerated depreciation along with the GBI scheme, and the availability of GBI for an unlimited capacity for a period of five years. The ISA has recommended an enactment of the RE Law requiring utilities to progressively increase power purchase from RE.
On its part, the ISA has been working with the government of India and various state governments as well. It has a sound rapport with concerned ministries - MNRE, DIT and NMCC.
The ISA has also assisted in the technical evaluation of solar PV proposals received in Fab City, Hyderabad. It has also drafted a semiconductor policy for the government of Karnataka, which should be out early next year, hopefully. The ISA is also working with several other state governments to promote the industry in their states.
The second ISA Solar PV Conclave is scheduled for November 2009 at Hyderabad.
Very good intentions, all of these! Now, for the Indian industry and the government to deliver, and walk hand in hand!!
Thursday, October 9, 2008
Solar, semi rocking in India; global semi recovery in 2010?
Wow! What a start for October! We have had a whole new range of activities going on! Fist, late September, the India Semiconductor Association organized a solar/PV conclave in New Delhi, where plans were laid out for India's roadmap in the solar/PV field. the ISA-NMCC (National Manufacturing Competitiveness Council) report on the Indian solar PV market was also released at the conclave.
According to Poornima Shenoy, president, ISA, the year 2015 could be important for this industry. She said, "Around this time, the product cost of the Indian solar PV industry is likely to match the semi grid parity (peak power) globally, and also to match the grid parity within India."
Next, AMD joined hands with Advanced Technology Investment Co. (ATIC) of Abu Dhabi to create "The Foundry Company", a leading-edge foundry production outfit. It will also join the IBM joint development alliance for silicon-on-insulator (SOI) and bulk silicon through 22nm generation. It will be very interesting to see how AMD now takes on Intel!
Messe Munchen put out a white paper on "How China, India and Eastern Europe are changing the global electronics market." This is not surprising at all! You can download the report by clicking on the link here, and I must say, the report is really engaging!
On the same lines, Gartner came up with its analysis that China is dominating the global semiconductor scene, and that both India and Vietnam are gaining! India's growing might in semicon is well documented! Also, last month, I had mentioned how the lack of a fab or the exit of a top professional from an Indian semicon firm would not hamper India's growing fortunes in this industry!
The trials and tribulations of the global semiconductor industry were already touched upon by Derek Lidow of iSuppli. Analysts such as Malcolm Penn of Future Horizons and those at Gartner have been saying similar things, more or less. Penn advises that this is the time to stop chasing fashion and get back to basics. He adds, "The good news being the industry basics are mercifully as good as they get back."
Gartner only expects a recovery for semiconductors sometime in 2010! According to Gartner, a collapse in memory spending, combined with a weak economy, is driving a major contraction in semiconductor capital equipment spending in 2008. The slowdown is likely to continue into 2009 before the industry recovers in 2010.
SEMI now has a presence in India. Sathya Prasad, formerly of Cadence, has been appointed as president of SEMI India with immediate effect. This is a further indication of India's growing leadership in the semicon space. I will be getting into a discussion with Sathya Prasad sometime later.
Of course, we have the usual stuff like companies selling off or retiring 200mm fabs. Examples are NXP, Hynix, Renesas, etc. Also, DRAM prices continue to be weak and suppliers could likely face a credit crunch.
Interesting mix of happenings, isn't it! While India rocks in solar and semicon, we are still speculating on a recovery for the global semiconductor industry. About time India took the lead in making that happen!
Finally, I was busy with Durga Puja, and hence, didn't blog in a while. Will try my best and make up for my absence. I would like to take this opportunity to wish SHUBHO BIJOYA to all of my Bengali and non-Bengali friends.
According to Poornima Shenoy, president, ISA, the year 2015 could be important for this industry. She said, "Around this time, the product cost of the Indian solar PV industry is likely to match the semi grid parity (peak power) globally, and also to match the grid parity within India."
Next, AMD joined hands with Advanced Technology Investment Co. (ATIC) of Abu Dhabi to create "The Foundry Company", a leading-edge foundry production outfit. It will also join the IBM joint development alliance for silicon-on-insulator (SOI) and bulk silicon through 22nm generation. It will be very interesting to see how AMD now takes on Intel!
Messe Munchen put out a white paper on "How China, India and Eastern Europe are changing the global electronics market." This is not surprising at all! You can download the report by clicking on the link here, and I must say, the report is really engaging!
On the same lines, Gartner came up with its analysis that China is dominating the global semiconductor scene, and that both India and Vietnam are gaining! India's growing might in semicon is well documented! Also, last month, I had mentioned how the lack of a fab or the exit of a top professional from an Indian semicon firm would not hamper India's growing fortunes in this industry!
The trials and tribulations of the global semiconductor industry were already touched upon by Derek Lidow of iSuppli. Analysts such as Malcolm Penn of Future Horizons and those at Gartner have been saying similar things, more or less. Penn advises that this is the time to stop chasing fashion and get back to basics. He adds, "The good news being the industry basics are mercifully as good as they get back."
Gartner only expects a recovery for semiconductors sometime in 2010! According to Gartner, a collapse in memory spending, combined with a weak economy, is driving a major contraction in semiconductor capital equipment spending in 2008. The slowdown is likely to continue into 2009 before the industry recovers in 2010.
SEMI now has a presence in India. Sathya Prasad, formerly of Cadence, has been appointed as president of SEMI India with immediate effect. This is a further indication of India's growing leadership in the semicon space. I will be getting into a discussion with Sathya Prasad sometime later.
Of course, we have the usual stuff like companies selling off or retiring 200mm fabs. Examples are NXP, Hynix, Renesas, etc. Also, DRAM prices continue to be weak and suppliers could likely face a credit crunch.
Interesting mix of happenings, isn't it! While India rocks in solar and semicon, we are still speculating on a recovery for the global semiconductor industry. About time India took the lead in making that happen!
Finally, I was busy with Durga Puja, and hence, didn't blog in a while. Will try my best and make up for my absence. I would like to take this opportunity to wish SHUBHO BIJOYA to all of my Bengali and non-Bengali friends.
Monday, August 25, 2008
What India brings to the table for semicon world! And, for Japan
This semicon blog's title has been inspired by some queries, largely from friends in Japan, who are looking at the Indian semiconductor market. The topic of great global (and Japanese) interest is: What does India bring to the table for the semicon world to go to India!
Interesting! The world has been keenly following the Indian semiconductor and fab policy, and can gather a lot of information off my blog itself! For those who'd like to know it all again in specifics, here we go again!
Indian semicon and fab policy
Around September last year, the Department of Information Technology, Ministry of Communication and IT, Government of India, came up with the Special Incentive Package Scheme (SIPS) to encourage investments for setting up semicon fabs, and other micro and nanotechnology manufacturing industries in India!
The "ecosystem units" have been clearly defined as units, other than a fab unit, for manufacture of semiconductors, displays, including LCDs, OLEDs, PDPs, any other emerging displays; storage devices; solar cells; photovoltaics; other advanced micro and nanotechnology products; and assembly and test of all the above products.
What has happened since?
Lots! Initially, there were two major proposals from HSMC and SemIndia for setting up wafer IC fabs. While those haven't really taken off yet, more investments have since happened in India.
Quite recently, the Indian semiconductor and fab policy attracted 12 major proposals, worth a whopping Rs. 93,000 crores! The Department of Information Technology (DIT), Government of India, has set up a panel of technical experts to evaluate these proposals.
Ten (10) of these proposals are for solar/PV. One is for a semiconductor wafer -- from Reliance Industries worth Rs. 18,521 crores, and another for TFT LCD flat panels -- from Videocon Industries, worth Rs. 8,000 crores.
The 10 proposals for solar/PV are from: KSK Surya (Rs. 3,211 crores), Lanco Solar (Rs. 12,938 crores), PV Technologies India (Rs. 6,000 crores), Phoenix Solar India (Rs. 1,200 crores), Reliance Industries (Rs. 11,631 crores), Signet Solar Inc. (Rs. 9,672 crores), Solar Semiconductor (Rs. 11,821 crores), TF Solar Power (Rs. 2,348 crores), Tata BP Solar India (Rs. 1,692.80 crores), and Titan Energy System (Rs. 5,880.58 crores). This is as far the latest developments are concerned!
Solar fabs have also been announced earlier by leading firms such as Videocon, Reliance and Moser Baer, etc. (Two of them are figuring here again!) There are also talks about developing solar farms in India, which is good.
What are India's strengths?
The clear strengths of the Indian semiconductor industry are embedded and design services! We are NOT YET into product development, but one sincerely hopes that it gathers pace.
The market drivers in India are mobile phone services, IT services/BPO, automobiles and IT hardware. India is also very strong in design tools, system architecture and VLSI design, has quite strong IP protection laws, and is reasonably strong in concept/innovation in semiconductors.
Testing and packaging are in a nascent stage. India will certainly have more of ATMP facilities. Nearly every single semicon giant has an India presence! That should indicate the amount of interest the outside world has on India. In fact, I am told, some key decisions are now made out of the Bangalore based outfits!
Electronics manufacturing
In the electronics manufacturing domain, India's strength lies in hardware, embedded software and industrial design, OEMs, component distribution (includes semiconductor and box build), and end user/distribution channel, as well as more than moderate strength in product design and manufacturing (ODM, EMS).
India is likely to witness $363 billion of equipment consumption and $155 billion of domestic production by 2015. India's electronic equipment consumption in 2005 was 1.8 percent. It is likely to grow to 5.5 percent in 2010 and 11 percent in 2015, as per a joint study conducted by the ISA and Frost & Sullivan.
The Indian semiconductor TAM (total available market) revenue is likely to grow by 2.5 times while the TM (total market) is likely to double revenues in 2009. The TAM is likely to grow at a CAGR of 35.8 percent and the TM is likely to grow at a CAGR of 26.7 percent, respectively, during the period 2006-09.
Telecom, and IT and office automation are the leading segments in TM and TAM. Consumer segment occupies the third fastest growing area in the TM, and the industrial segment is the third fastest growing area in the TAM.
The major semiconductor categories of interest include microprocessors, analog, memory, discretes and ASICs, while the major end use products include mobile handsets, BTS, desktops, notebooks, set-top boxes and CRT TVs.
India, the embedded superstar!
India's embedded design industry has been going from strength to strength. An IDC-ISA report forecasts the revenues from India's VLSI, board design and embedded software industry to grow to $10.96bn by 2010 from the current $6.08bn in 2007.
India is also focusing on moving up the semiconductor value chain. It is emphasizing on end-to-end product development, investing in IP development, developing India specific products, and partnering with OEMs to understand the market needs. Also, be aware that several leading EMS firms are present in India as well.
What should investors do?
Certainly, invest in India! The Indian semicon policy clearly defines the "ecosystem units." Global manufacturers of displays, including LCDs, OLEDs, PDPs, any other emerging displays; storage devices; including SSDs, solar cells; photovoltaics; other advanced micro and nanotechnology products, should certainly look at investing in India, and consider manufacturing here!
Lots of solar fabs are likely to come up, so there will be a great demand for solar related equipment, chemicals, testing, etc. We hope that one wafer IC fab comes up as well, so there will be opportunity for semicon equipment manufacturers. However, do be prepared to wait as things may not move as fast as some may expect.
There is lot of opportunity for fabless companies and in ATMP as well. There are several Indian firms, small ones, who may be interested in partnering. Some trading companies may find India of interest, especially in the solar/PV and ATMP segments.
Keep an eye on the IT/semicon policies some states, especially, Karnataka have in store. A host of opportunities could become available, once Karnataka comes up with a policy. More states may follow suit!
Well, do contact me in case you need further assistance.
Interesting! The world has been keenly following the Indian semiconductor and fab policy, and can gather a lot of information off my blog itself! For those who'd like to know it all again in specifics, here we go again!
Indian semicon and fab policy
Around September last year, the Department of Information Technology, Ministry of Communication and IT, Government of India, came up with the Special Incentive Package Scheme (SIPS) to encourage investments for setting up semicon fabs, and other micro and nanotechnology manufacturing industries in India!
The "ecosystem units" have been clearly defined as units, other than a fab unit, for manufacture of semiconductors, displays, including LCDs, OLEDs, PDPs, any other emerging displays; storage devices; solar cells; photovoltaics; other advanced micro and nanotechnology products; and assembly and test of all the above products.
What has happened since?
Lots! Initially, there were two major proposals from HSMC and SemIndia for setting up wafer IC fabs. While those haven't really taken off yet, more investments have since happened in India.
Quite recently, the Indian semiconductor and fab policy attracted 12 major proposals, worth a whopping Rs. 93,000 crores! The Department of Information Technology (DIT), Government of India, has set up a panel of technical experts to evaluate these proposals.
Ten (10) of these proposals are for solar/PV. One is for a semiconductor wafer -- from Reliance Industries worth Rs. 18,521 crores, and another for TFT LCD flat panels -- from Videocon Industries, worth Rs. 8,000 crores.
The 10 proposals for solar/PV are from: KSK Surya (Rs. 3,211 crores), Lanco Solar (Rs. 12,938 crores), PV Technologies India (Rs. 6,000 crores), Phoenix Solar India (Rs. 1,200 crores), Reliance Industries (Rs. 11,631 crores), Signet Solar Inc. (Rs. 9,672 crores), Solar Semiconductor (Rs. 11,821 crores), TF Solar Power (Rs. 2,348 crores), Tata BP Solar India (Rs. 1,692.80 crores), and Titan Energy System (Rs. 5,880.58 crores). This is as far the latest developments are concerned!
Solar fabs have also been announced earlier by leading firms such as Videocon, Reliance and Moser Baer, etc. (Two of them are figuring here again!) There are also talks about developing solar farms in India, which is good.
What are India's strengths?
The clear strengths of the Indian semiconductor industry are embedded and design services! We are NOT YET into product development, but one sincerely hopes that it gathers pace.
The market drivers in India are mobile phone services, IT services/BPO, automobiles and IT hardware. India is also very strong in design tools, system architecture and VLSI design, has quite strong IP protection laws, and is reasonably strong in concept/innovation in semiconductors.
Testing and packaging are in a nascent stage. India will certainly have more of ATMP facilities. Nearly every single semicon giant has an India presence! That should indicate the amount of interest the outside world has on India. In fact, I am told, some key decisions are now made out of the Bangalore based outfits!
Electronics manufacturing
In the electronics manufacturing domain, India's strength lies in hardware, embedded software and industrial design, OEMs, component distribution (includes semiconductor and box build), and end user/distribution channel, as well as more than moderate strength in product design and manufacturing (ODM, EMS).
India is likely to witness $363 billion of equipment consumption and $155 billion of domestic production by 2015. India's electronic equipment consumption in 2005 was 1.8 percent. It is likely to grow to 5.5 percent in 2010 and 11 percent in 2015, as per a joint study conducted by the ISA and Frost & Sullivan.
The Indian semiconductor TAM (total available market) revenue is likely to grow by 2.5 times while the TM (total market) is likely to double revenues in 2009. The TAM is likely to grow at a CAGR of 35.8 percent and the TM is likely to grow at a CAGR of 26.7 percent, respectively, during the period 2006-09.
Telecom, and IT and office automation are the leading segments in TM and TAM. Consumer segment occupies the third fastest growing area in the TM, and the industrial segment is the third fastest growing area in the TAM.
The major semiconductor categories of interest include microprocessors, analog, memory, discretes and ASICs, while the major end use products include mobile handsets, BTS, desktops, notebooks, set-top boxes and CRT TVs.
India, the embedded superstar!
India's embedded design industry has been going from strength to strength. An IDC-ISA report forecasts the revenues from India's VLSI, board design and embedded software industry to grow to $10.96bn by 2010 from the current $6.08bn in 2007.
India is also focusing on moving up the semiconductor value chain. It is emphasizing on end-to-end product development, investing in IP development, developing India specific products, and partnering with OEMs to understand the market needs. Also, be aware that several leading EMS firms are present in India as well.
What should investors do?
Certainly, invest in India! The Indian semicon policy clearly defines the "ecosystem units." Global manufacturers of displays, including LCDs, OLEDs, PDPs, any other emerging displays; storage devices; including SSDs, solar cells; photovoltaics; other advanced micro and nanotechnology products, should certainly look at investing in India, and consider manufacturing here!
Lots of solar fabs are likely to come up, so there will be a great demand for solar related equipment, chemicals, testing, etc. We hope that one wafer IC fab comes up as well, so there will be opportunity for semicon equipment manufacturers. However, do be prepared to wait as things may not move as fast as some may expect.
There is lot of opportunity for fabless companies and in ATMP as well. There are several Indian firms, small ones, who may be interested in partnering. Some trading companies may find India of interest, especially in the solar/PV and ATMP segments.
Keep an eye on the IT/semicon policies some states, especially, Karnataka have in store. A host of opportunities could become available, once Karnataka comes up with a policy. More states may follow suit!
Well, do contact me in case you need further assistance.
Tuesday, January 1, 2008
Can we expect exciting times in 2008?
Welcome 2008! May I wish all my readers a very happy and prosperous 2008. Another year's gone past. We have a habit of looking back to see at what happened and what could have been.
A lot has been written already about 2007 and what to expect in 2008. So let's just touch upon some of the events from 2007 and some expectations from 2008.
For India, 2007 was a great year for the semiconductor industry -- first, the Indian government announced the semiconductor policy, followed some months later by the fab policy. Both were tremendous firsts in India's science and technology, and not IT, history. Everyone hopes that the Indian semiconductor industry will take off this year. Eyes are focused on the embedded segment, what with the global semiconductor industry reportedly facing 'an embedded dilemma.'
An issue hitting the EDA industry is that, the cost of designing or developing the embededded software for an SoC actually passed the cost of desgining the SoC itself in 2007. The world needs to avoid this software crisis, and India is well placed to take full advantage and play a major role, given its strength in embedded.
In IT, it's been a mixed sort of a year for Apple, which hit big time with the iPhone, seemed not to make waves with either the Safari browser or the Leopard OS. Microsoft had the Vista OS, but then, Vista didn't exactly warm the hearts of users or those who wished to upgrade their OS, including yours truly. Maybe, 2008 would ring in better times for Vista.
While on browsers, Firefox has gained lot of ground. However, by the end of 2007 came the news that the Netscape Web browser -- which started it all -- would soon be confined to history.
Netscape Navigator was the world's first commercial Web browser and launch pad of the Internet boom. It will be taken off on February 1, 2008, after a 13-year run. Time Warner's AOL, its current owner, has reportedly decided to kill further development and technical support to focus on growing the company as an advertising business. The first version of Netscape had come out in late 1994.
In gaming, there are admirers of Wii, PS3 and Xbox 360, and will remain the same. Which one of these gaming consoles will reign supreme, eventually, is difficult to predict.
In consumer electronics, lines are surely blurring between portable media players (PMPs) and portable navigation devices. Also, it would be interesting to see how digital photo frames survive 2008. A reported tight supply, especially for seven-inch models, has led to some makers in Asia either postponing mass production or extending lead times. Surely, makers cannot add more entertainment functions in smaller screen models, to keep costs down.
In the security products market, IP cameras and video servers should have a better year, with more emphasis now on video surveillance. In fact, some friends have been querying me as well regarding their potential.
On components, we can hope to see more growth for solid polymer capacitors in 2008, and among PCBs some fabricators should start manufacturing high-density interconnect (HDI) PCBs this year.
In wireless, we should witness TD-SCDMA in operation prior to the Beijing Olympic Games. Backers would like to see TD-SCDMA succeed, given the effort Datang-Siemens has made on the technology, as also the Chinese government, which issued spectrum for TD-SCDMA nearly five years ago!
Let's all welcome 2008 and look forward to more exciting things happening.
A lot has been written already about 2007 and what to expect in 2008. So let's just touch upon some of the events from 2007 and some expectations from 2008.
For India, 2007 was a great year for the semiconductor industry -- first, the Indian government announced the semiconductor policy, followed some months later by the fab policy. Both were tremendous firsts in India's science and technology, and not IT, history. Everyone hopes that the Indian semiconductor industry will take off this year. Eyes are focused on the embedded segment, what with the global semiconductor industry reportedly facing 'an embedded dilemma.'
An issue hitting the EDA industry is that, the cost of designing or developing the embededded software for an SoC actually passed the cost of desgining the SoC itself in 2007. The world needs to avoid this software crisis, and India is well placed to take full advantage and play a major role, given its strength in embedded.
In IT, it's been a mixed sort of a year for Apple, which hit big time with the iPhone, seemed not to make waves with either the Safari browser or the Leopard OS. Microsoft had the Vista OS, but then, Vista didn't exactly warm the hearts of users or those who wished to upgrade their OS, including yours truly. Maybe, 2008 would ring in better times for Vista.
While on browsers, Firefox has gained lot of ground. However, by the end of 2007 came the news that the Netscape Web browser -- which started it all -- would soon be confined to history.
Netscape Navigator was the world's first commercial Web browser and launch pad of the Internet boom. It will be taken off on February 1, 2008, after a 13-year run. Time Warner's AOL, its current owner, has reportedly decided to kill further development and technical support to focus on growing the company as an advertising business. The first version of Netscape had come out in late 1994.
In gaming, there are admirers of Wii, PS3 and Xbox 360, and will remain the same. Which one of these gaming consoles will reign supreme, eventually, is difficult to predict.
In consumer electronics, lines are surely blurring between portable media players (PMPs) and portable navigation devices. Also, it would be interesting to see how digital photo frames survive 2008. A reported tight supply, especially for seven-inch models, has led to some makers in Asia either postponing mass production or extending lead times. Surely, makers cannot add more entertainment functions in smaller screen models, to keep costs down.
In the security products market, IP cameras and video servers should have a better year, with more emphasis now on video surveillance. In fact, some friends have been querying me as well regarding their potential.
On components, we can hope to see more growth for solid polymer capacitors in 2008, and among PCBs some fabricators should start manufacturing high-density interconnect (HDI) PCBs this year.
In wireless, we should witness TD-SCDMA in operation prior to the Beijing Olympic Games. Backers would like to see TD-SCDMA succeed, given the effort Datang-Siemens has made on the technology, as also the Chinese government, which issued spectrum for TD-SCDMA nearly five years ago!
Let's all welcome 2008 and look forward to more exciting things happening.
Friday, August 31, 2007
Does India need fabs? Worth a try!
A friend asked me whether India needs a fab. My answer quick and short was no! While it would be enchanting to see India join the global "fab club" or even have Indians comment "real men own fabs" for a change, I just don't see the ecosystem -- as people like to call it -- there. Maybe, once the odd fabs come up, that would develop as well. However, it can be quite some time away.
India, as most of us know, are strong in embedded and SoC related work. We are strong in design services. We are good at playing to our strengths. We should continue to do so. Note that we are not yet a one-stop design shop, though many people seem to see it that way. This is not exactly software and services!
However, to move up the so-called semicon value chain, India needs to do high-end designs and product development. The last one is currently the problem area.
How many Indian firms are involved in product development? Can you name them? Do you have the names on your fingertips? Most importantly, are those aimed for captive consumption (within the country) or are those serving the global markets? What are the product differentiators?
Right! Let's get back to the fab business. I asked in a earlier piece that whether everyone are aware of the kind of investment that is required for a fab. Do people even have an idea how long would it take for a fab to break even?
First, the investment. The fab is not going to be a small building built on some piece of land. If it's going to be a 300mm fab, the expenses are going to be huge. Let's keep this easy. For starters, there is going to be a fixed cost for maintaining the day-to-day running of a fab. That itself is going to be huge.
Two, most of the fab work would be automated. A fab won't exactly be hiring numbers running well over thousands. Even if huge numbers were hired, do we have people in the country with experience of working in green rooms? Let's assume there are!
Next, there are several other processes involved in developing wafer out of silicon. Do we have people with that kind of experience? Let's again assume that there are. Again, the operating costs for maintaining such personnel would be quite high.
Three, let's get down to the equipment required for a fab. That's going to be really expensive. Most importantly, all of it has to be in place, running, before the fab actually goes live. Next, a fab can't survive for long if it rests on using certain technologies. It has to use all possible latest technologies. Again, getting those would be expensive.
Finally, the wafers coming out have to be world-class and the yield, high, rather, very high. Those should be able to serve multiple product needs as well -- niche and vogue. Oh yes, the fab has to serve the global market. So, do add the marketing costs as well.
How long will it take for such a fab to break-even? Maybe, three to five years. Add the fact that technologies and process geometries would have also progressed a lot by that time. Which means, all of those need to be added on to the fab.
Well, it's worth a challenge. India is betting big on semicon. Let's have those fabs along with the fabless folks. We'll know who stands where, and whether India really has the capability to move up the semiconductor value chain.
India, as most of us know, are strong in embedded and SoC related work. We are strong in design services. We are good at playing to our strengths. We should continue to do so. Note that we are not yet a one-stop design shop, though many people seem to see it that way. This is not exactly software and services!
However, to move up the so-called semicon value chain, India needs to do high-end designs and product development. The last one is currently the problem area.
How many Indian firms are involved in product development? Can you name them? Do you have the names on your fingertips? Most importantly, are those aimed for captive consumption (within the country) or are those serving the global markets? What are the product differentiators?
Right! Let's get back to the fab business. I asked in a earlier piece that whether everyone are aware of the kind of investment that is required for a fab. Do people even have an idea how long would it take for a fab to break even?
First, the investment. The fab is not going to be a small building built on some piece of land. If it's going to be a 300mm fab, the expenses are going to be huge. Let's keep this easy. For starters, there is going to be a fixed cost for maintaining the day-to-day running of a fab. That itself is going to be huge.
Two, most of the fab work would be automated. A fab won't exactly be hiring numbers running well over thousands. Even if huge numbers were hired, do we have people in the country with experience of working in green rooms? Let's assume there are!
Next, there are several other processes involved in developing wafer out of silicon. Do we have people with that kind of experience? Let's again assume that there are. Again, the operating costs for maintaining such personnel would be quite high.
Three, let's get down to the equipment required for a fab. That's going to be really expensive. Most importantly, all of it has to be in place, running, before the fab actually goes live. Next, a fab can't survive for long if it rests on using certain technologies. It has to use all possible latest technologies. Again, getting those would be expensive.
Finally, the wafers coming out have to be world-class and the yield, high, rather, very high. Those should be able to serve multiple product needs as well -- niche and vogue. Oh yes, the fab has to serve the global market. So, do add the marketing costs as well.
How long will it take for such a fab to break-even? Maybe, three to five years. Add the fact that technologies and process geometries would have also progressed a lot by that time. Which means, all of those need to be added on to the fab.
Well, it's worth a challenge. India is betting big on semicon. Let's have those fabs along with the fabless folks. We'll know who stands where, and whether India really has the capability to move up the semiconductor value chain.
Thursday, March 29, 2007
India's semicon policy takes off
Close on the heels of the historic Indian semicon policy announced earlier this year comes the news that Hindustan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corporation (HSMC) would be setting up a semicon foundry in India partnering with Infineon Technologies for CMOS licences. It's no surprise to see Infineon among the early movers as Infineon has been present in India for quite a while now.
This is excellent news as far as the Indian semiconductor industry is concerned. I remember the day the India Semiconductor Association (ISA) was formed in Bangalore in early November 2004. The ISA is a very young industry body and all kudos to it for having taken forward the Indian industry so very well.
Congratulations are also due to Honourable minister, Dayanidhi Maran for having the foresight and for believing in the semiconductor industry.
Not only would the semicon industry boost India's GDP in the coming years, the policy should also see India emerging as a destination of choice for manufacturing of high-tech products in the future.
This January, while attending the VLSI conference in Bangalore, I had the pleasure of learning about the various incentives some of the state governments, such as those of Karnataka, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and West Bengal have to offer to investors.
Other state governments should come forward as well and make India's dream of becoming a semicon giant a success and help the semicon policy really take off.
Following HSMC's announcement, we have now come to expect more such announcements in the near future. All of this really augurs well for India. It will also change the global perception that India is the destination for software and outsourcing.
We can do it. Time to show the world. Well done ISA. Well done Minister. And well done HSMC and Infineon
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