The National Solar Mission, a SEMI India perspective

INDIA: Policy and government support for solar PV in India continues to strengthen driven by the country’s push to meet its vast power needs and still growing deficit as well as the need to move to clean and renewable sources of electricity. Recent months have seen activity on key policy fronts.

Momentum on India’s National Solar Mission has been growing, and once fully operational it could open up enormous opportunities as well as supply side challenges across the PV supply chain for Indian and global PV companies. The NSM and a recent scheme from the Ministry of New and Renewable Energy to promote urban solar PV applications are outlined.

The National Solar Mission background
On August 3, 2009, the Government of India announced ‘in principle’ approval, in New Delhi, of the goal of the National Solar Mission (NSM) to achieve 20,000 MW of solar power generation (both PV and thermal) in the country by the year 2020.

Now christened the Jawaharlal Nehru National Solar Mission, after India’ first Prime Minister, it is one of eight missions that form the core of India’s National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC). The NSM’s 20 GW target reflects an increase of over two orders of magnitude from India’s current installed PV power generation capacity.

A draft version of the NSM that has been in public circulation for a few months calls out the following longer term targets as well:Source: SEMI India

Other targets called out in the draft NSM are:
* India solar manufacturing capacity ramp to 4-5 GW by 2017.
* Target to electrify 3 million households by 2012 and 20 million by 2020.
* Target of 1 million rooftop systems by 2020.

Financial provisioning approaches to enable these plans include:
* INR 5,000 crore (~US$ 1B) initial investment by the Government in a ‘solar fund’ by 2012 with continuing contributions thereafter;
* Total government funding of up to INR 92,000 crores (~US$18.4b) over a 30 year period via a variety of incentives, grants, subsidies, etc.;
* Fund generation is proposed through a ‘cess’ (taxation) on coal, petrol, and diesel, direct budgetary allocations and possibly via international funding through mechanisms under the UNFCC (UN Framework Convention on Climate Change).

The announcement of the Government’s ‘in principle’ approval has enthused India PV industry leaders several of whom have welcomed the move as one that would bring the benefits of scale to local manufacturers and even larger benefits to the country as a whole.

The opportunities, even in the timeframe until 2020, presented by such an expansion, are enormous both for India’s domestic PV industry as well as for global PV players in every segment of the PV supply chain – from cells and modules to PV systems (both off and on grid) and in project implementation and maintenance.

Stayed tuned for updates on November 16, 2009, directly following SOLARCON India 2009 (November 9-11, 2009, Hyderabad, India), being held in association with Intersolar India 2009. SOLARCON India’s technical conference will spark relevant discussions that will bring the spotlight to bear on this potentially transformational piece of legislation that could usher in a solar revolution in the country.

Source: SEMI USA/SEMI India

SOLARCON India 2009 to be held in Hyderabad, Nov. 9-11, 2009

BANGALORE & HYDERABAD: Dr Farooq Abdullah, Honorable Minister for New and Renewable Energy, today launched SOLARCON India 2009 the global exhibition-cum-conference which is to be held in Hyderabad from November 9-11 2009.

SOLARCON is aimed to be an annual event of international relevance and is to attract exhibitors and delegates to the three day event. This year nearly 75 exhibitors and 500 delegates are expected to participate .The event is hosted by Fabcity with India Semiconductor Association (ISA) and Semiconductor Equipment & Materials International (SEMI).

The event aims to showcase the demand of the local market in renewable energy and also bring together industry leaders in solar PV manufacturing and applications on a common platform.

Speaking on the occasion, Dr Abdullah reiterated the growing significance of renewable energy and the huge potential of applications in the Indian PV market place especially in rural households. Hyderabad has attracted the bulk of investments in the sector and with the right support and exposure could create a cluster with representatives of the entire ecosystem.

Also present on the occasion were, B.P. Acharya IAS, Chairman and Managing Director of Andhra Pradesh Industrial Infrastructure Corp. (APIIC), Ms Poornima Shenoy, President, India Semiconductor Association (ISA) and Sathya Prasad, President, SEMI India.

Industrial Nanotech announces recent orders from India

NAPLES, USA: Industrial Nanotech Inc., an emerging global leader in nanoscience solutions, announced that the company has received an order of a pallet of product from a client of Independent Sales Representative, P.R. Ramanathan.

The order is from Kon Chem India Pvt. Ltd of Bangalore and will ship in 10 business days.

The customer is a large manufacturer of concrete designer tiles and related chemicals. Other recent orders from India include Devi Polymers, who have already received their initial order and completed the application of the coatings, and New Chemical Industries, who ordered Nansulate coatings previously in 2009 and this month have reordered the company’s new roof coating, Nansulate Crystal.

“I met with P.R. Ramanathan and his son in June of this year and we reviewed his company’s marketing plan,” stated Francesca Crolley, VP Business Development for Industrial Nanotech.

“I was impressed with the number of opportunities that he had identified for rapid introduction of our energy saving coating technology in India, a market we have great interest in, and we are now seeing the benefits of the execution of the marketing plan for this country.

“It is a region that is growing exceptionally fast and there are many manufacturing, construction, transport and related industries who are all seeking reduction in energy consumption. There are many other clients with whom Ramanathan’s company is working and we expect to see sales in India for Nansulate continue to accelerate exponentially throughout this year and beyond.”

India mainly an off-grid solar PV market with only 2.12 Mw of PV power being grid connected

DUBLIN, IRELAND: Research and Markets has announced the addition of GlobalData's new report "Indian Solar Sector: Dawn of a New Era" to its offering.

The future of solar PV development in India looks encouraging and is expected to be driven by the government incentives and PV support programs. India is mainly an off-grid solar PV market with only 2.12 MW of PV power being grid connected.

The Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE) has launched various financial support programs like the generation based incentives (feed-in tariff) of Rs 15/KWh ($0.30 / KWh) to encourage grid connectivity in India. Semiconductor policy in India is providing capital subsidy for PV manufacturers.

This initiative has attracted investments worth Rs 796.46 billion ($18 billion) from manufacturers of PV equipment. Financial incentives along with other PV support programs like the Solar Cities program is aimed at promoting solar PV installations in the country.

Intersolar expands into India!

HYDERABAD, INDIA: Intersolar, the world's largest trade show for solar technology, is expanding into India.

Intersolar India will take place for the first time in 2009 in association with SOLARCON India, being held in Hyderabad from November 9-11. Alongside the Intersolar events in Munich and San Francisco, the trade show will now have a third international location.

Together with SOLARCON India, Intersolar India is the leading conference for the photovoltaics industry in India. The three-day program will be complemented by an inaugural accompanying exhibition which is due to be greatly expanded for 2010 and onward.

The collaboration in India sees Intersolar further increases its well-established partnership with SEMI PV Group, the leading global industry association for the semiconductor and photovoltaics industry and organizer of SOLARCON.

This year's conference will focus on the development of the Indian PV market. The event will be inaugurated on November 9 by key officials from the Government of India, Government of Andhra Pradesh and industry leaders. Prof. Eicke Weber, Director of the Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems (ISE) of Freiburg is slated to deliver the keynote.

Upcoming Indian solar market
India has long been considered a potentially attractive market for solar technology by the industry. With the new "National Action Plan on Climate Change" that was adopted by the Indian government in 2008, that hope is now being realized.

According to plans drawn up by the "National Solar Mission" at the Ministry of New and Renewable Energy, solar installations with a total capacity of 20 gigawatts (GW) are to be installed in India by 2020. To achieve this objective, photovoltaic installations, including rooftop, ground-based arrays and off-grid applications, as well as solar thermal power plants, will be key.

It is an ambitious goal. As only a few projects have been implemented to date, most of the planned 20GW will have to be realized within the next 11 years. This amounts to annual installation of approximately 1.8GW.

If achieved, India would join the current leading nations in rate of annual installed solar technology. Therefore, the opportunities in the Indian market are particularly robust at the present time, and ever-more international solar companies are reacting to this new development.

SOLARCON India and Intersolar India 2009
Intersolar India, just like Intersolar North America, is being jointly organized by Solar Promotion International GmbH and Freiburg Management and Marketing International GmbH (FMMI).

SOLARCON India is being organized by PV Group, which is an initiative of SEMI, the global association for the semiconductor and photovoltaics industry. SOLARCON India and Intersolar India are supported by the leading Indian solar companies.

Dr. Robert Castellano on how to make solar a ‘hot’ sector again – 2

This is the concluding part of my conversation with Dr. Robert N. Castellano, president of The Information Network, based in New Tripoli, USA.

The question of adding new, additional solar capacity will always arise. Is t certain that no new additional capacity will be brought on board in 2009? Dr. Castellano said: "Actually I said 2010. Solar manufacturers are already losing money this year and the capacity utilization is 27.9 percent. Also, the days of inventory are currently 122, up from 71 days in 2008. If they continue to add new capacity, things will only worsen, exasperating the recession."

Lessons for India?
Turning our attention to India, which has lately been witnessing a lot of talks of building new capacity. According to Dr. Castellano, now is a good time to talk, as a plant will take at least a year to get into full production. By that time, prices should be stabilized and increase.

What then are the lessons to learn from all of this for the Indian solar PV industry?
He added: "What has to be weighed is the cost of making the solar panels in India versus buying the outside the country. It can take several years for a plant to be profitable. If the venture was established from money from India’s government through subsidies, it can lessen the impact of potential losses, while the plants ramp and selling prices move up to a level where production becomes profitable."

I hope this valuable piece of advice is noted by the existing players or those looking to entering the solar photovoltaics segment in India.

Bring down solar production cost per watt
Dr. Castellano had mentioned about First Solar bringing production costs down to $0.93 per watt. How many of the others are capable of matching or bettering this?

He said, for that matter, Oerlikon, expects that its lines will deliver a cost of $0.70 cents per watt by the end of 2010 and has achieved an initial conversion efficiency of 11 percent, which comes out to about 9.5 percent of stabilized efficiency.

How can manufacturers differentiate their solar products?
Another query has been, how should solar manufacturers differentiate their products and how can they do it cheaply?

Certainly, there are new avenues of manufacturing, such as CdTe from First Solar, CIGS from half a dozen manufacturers, multi-junction cells from companies such as Uni-Solar, and building integrated photovoltaics (BIPV) from an increasing number of manufacturers, advised Dr. Castellano.

He said: "These technologies differentiate the companies’ products, but the proportion of wattage manufactured, while growing, is small compared to the majority of solar panels sold using traditional methods of production, i.e., a thin film on a glass substrate.

"Long life and low cost of ownership are of paramount importance if solar is to grow, particularly, if there is to be a large acceptance at the residential level. Manufacturing can introduce defects in solar cells that can result in low electron mobility (EM), electron traps and photo-degradation from UV light. These issues affect the efficiency and lifetime of solar cells and the importance of measuring electron mobility at the wafer and cell stage.

"The lifetime of minority carriers has been widely identified to be the key material parameter determining the conversion efficiency of pn-junctions in silicon solar cells. Defects in the crystal lattice reduce the charge carrier lifetime and thus limit the performance of the solar cells. Another major efficiency loss is due to impurities in the cell.

"These can be foreign atoms or molecules in the crystal lattice (including the dopant atoms), and provide sites where electrons and holes can recombine, thereby reducing the number of charged particles available to create an electrical current.

"Lehighton Electronics (Lehighton, PA) is an example of a company that has developed a variety of tools to test and measure solar wafers. One tool can measure sheet resistance and resistivity to see if there is any subsurface damage. Another system can measure minority carrier lifetimes, while a third model can find traps in solar wafers."

How to make solar hot (all over again!)?
Finally, isn't solar hot enough ? What would really make it hot (all over again)?

According to Dr Castellano, oil is now $70 a barrel [around August 23, 2009] and rising, which, to him suggests that people will start rethinking alternative energy. However, the second point about the credit market crunch remains. Who can get a loan to build a solar plant anyway? That will change once the recession is over.

He added: "Spain has not resumed its incentive program and will subsidize just 500 megawatts of solar projects this year, down sharply from 2,400 megawatts in 2008. Mainland China’s stimulus and now Taiwan’s incentives (we suspect money coming in from Mainland China) will counter the downturn in Spain and Germany.

"In the past six months we have seen somewhat of a stabilization in the worldwide economies and the share prices of solar companies ramp in recent weeks.

The passage of stimulus bills around the world will provide a ray of hope for the industry. In the US, for example, the new Stimulus Bill of 2009 changes the rules on how investment tax credits are awarded, allowing companies that are building power plants to take 30 percent of the cost as a tax break in a project's first year. This could prove vital because, in the last quarter of 2008, 10 out of 14 tax-equity providers stopped doing business in the solar market."

On SolarPA
Unknown to many in this part of the world, Dr Castellano started SolarPA, a few months ago. Providing more details, he said: "SolarPA, a company I started a few months ago, has demonstrated increases in efficiency of polycrystalline and silicon solar cells by up to 10 percent using a proprietary nanomaterial coating. Increasing the efficiency by 10 percent will automatically increase a 50MW production line to 55MW, reducing material and labor costs.

"We are looking for funding and I have been in talks with solar material and equipment manufacturers to partner for further development. We have NDAs with Applied Materials, Air Products, and Baker Mallinkdrodt, and are expecting them from Oerlikon and Ferro. These companies would develop the technology and then our joint partnership would license it to the solar manufacturers.

"Another possibility is to get investor money to develop the technology in-house, eliminating the need for the middlemen above. 1366 Technologies, for example, is developing a technology that it claims can boost multicrystalline silicon cells from 16 percent efficiency to 18 percent efficiency, thereby reducing their cost per watt, by giving the solar cells a rougher texture. The startup raised $12.4 million in 2008.

"Xerocoat developed a coating strategy that increases efficiency by 4 percent on not only a multicrystalline silicon cell but thin film cells as well. The company received $3 million in DOE funding in 2009.

To be concluded

BHEL augments solar PV manufacturing facility to 8MW per annum

NEW DELHI, INDIA: As another step toward supporting the Government of India’s Green Energy Initiative, Bharat Heavy Electricals Ltd (BHEL) has enhanced the solar photovoltaic (PV) module manufacturing facility at its Electronics Division, Bangalore, from 3MW to 8MW per annum.

The company’s new state-of-the-art, upgraded unit was dedicated to the nation by Vilasrao Deshmukh, Hon’ble Union Minister for Heavy Industries & Public Enterprises, in the presence of Arun Yadav, Hon’ble Union Minister of State for Heavy Industries and Ananth Kumar, Member of Parliament. M. Krishnappa and D.K. Shivakumar, MLAs; Dr. Satyanarayana Dash, Secretary, Department of Heavy Industry, Govt. of India; Sudhakar Rao, Chief Secretary, Govt. of Karnataka and K. Ravi Kumar, Chairman & Managing Director, BHEL, were also present on the occasion, in addition to the Board of Directors and senior officials of BHEL.

The additional photovoltaic (PV) manufacturing facility has enabled BHEL to handle larger (156x156-mm) and thinner (200-mm) solar-grade mono/multi-crystalline silicon wafers, for which process optimisation trials have been successfully completed.

BHEL has been committed to promoting eco-friendly sources of energy and has reinforced its commitment towards renewable energy by upgrading its solar PV manufacturing capacity.

In another step forward in this direction, the joint venture between BHEL and BEL for establishing a 250 MW PV production facility for processing Silicon Wafers, Solar Cells and PV Modules is under finalisation. With this JV, BHEL and BEL are expected to assume a leading position in the area of photovoltaics in the country.

BHEL has been actively contributing to the application of solar PV in remote and rural parts of the country for over three decades. The company’s Grid Interactive/Stand Alone Solar Power Plants as well as independent systems have enabled the people of Lakshadweep, Sagar Islands of West Bengal, Andaman & Nicobar Islands, tribal areas of Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, etc., to vastly improve their quality of life.

Solar cells and modules manufactured by BHEL are also exported to countries like Germany, Australia and Italy. The company’s PV modules are certified to international standards by JRC, Ispra, Italy.

BHEL has been committed to the nation’s power development programme and has reaffirmed its commitment to the Indian Power Sector by equipping itself for the future, by way of technology, facilities and trained manpower to meet the country’s power forecast for the 11th Plan and beyond.

For this, it has already enhanced its manufacturing capacity to 10,000 MW per annum and is further augmenting it to 15,000 MW per annum which is proceeding apace and plans are afoot to hike it further to 20,000 MW by 2011-12.

BHEL, BEL to float joint venture for solar panels facility

BANGALORE, INDIA (IANS): State-run Bharat Heavy Electricals Ltd (BHEL) and Bharat Electronics Ltd (BEL) will form a Rs.20 billion (Rs.2000 crore) joint venture by March 2010 to manufacture 250mw solar photovoltaic (PV) production facility for processing silicon wafers, solar cells and PV modules, a top company official said Tuesday.

'The joint venture with 50:50 equity holding will be set up where abundant power will be available. We will also rope in an overseas technology partner, which will be given a proportionate stake subsequently,' BHEL chairman and managing director K. Ravi Kumar told reporters here on the margins of a function.

Though the location to set up the facility has not been identified, Ravi Kumar hinted Karnataka could be considered, provided the required quality of power was made available to the venture.

As part of the government's green energy initiative, BHEL has upgraded its solar PV module manufacturing facility at its electronics division on the outskirts of the city to 8mw from 3mw per annum at a cost of Rs.160 million (Rs.16 crore). The initial investment in the facility was Rs.150 million (Rs.15 crore).

Dedicating the state-of-the-art facility to the nation, Heavy Industries & Public Enterprises Minister Vilasrao Deshmukh directed BHEL to reduce the cost of the cells through extensive research and greater indigenisation.

'At the present cost of Rs.19 per unit, solar energy from photovoltaic cells is not only cost prohibitive, but also economically unviable. There is an urgent need to indigenise the green technology and lower the production cost to make it affordable to institutional and retail users,' Deshmukh said.

The cost of power generation from conventional sources such as hydel is Rs.2-3 per unit, thermal Rs.4-5 and gas Rs.5-6.

Currently, BHEL is importing the raw material (silica) from the US to manufacture the solar-grade mono/multi-crystalline silicon wafers.

'We have been contributing to the application of solar PVs in remote and rural parts of the country over the last three decades. Our grid interactive and standalone solar power plants have been providing energy in Lakshadweep, Sagar islands in West Bengal, Andaman & Nicobar islands and tribal areas of Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand,' Ravi Kumar said.

In a bid to reduce greenhouse emissions and dependency on fossil fuels for power generation, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has advocated increasing use of renewable energy sources such as solar. He has also set a target of generating about 20,000mw or 20gw (gigawatts) from solar power by 2020 under the national solar mission at an estimated cost of $19 billion.

Source: Indo Asian News Service

Indian government, solar industry interact on MNRE’s solar PV program

India’s Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE) had recently announced a unified solar photovoltaic (SPV) program to promote the use of decentralised SPV systems for various applications in rural/ urban areas and SPV roof top systems for diesel saving in urban areas.

To promote this program, the MNRE organized a one-day seminar today, in New Delhi, along with the India Semiconductor Association (ISA), and the Indian Renewable Energy Development Agency Ltd (IREDA), to share the modalities for the implementation of the program with the concerned stakeholders such as manufacturers of solar PV modules and equipment, system integrators, service providers, consultants, banks and financial institutions, and reputed NGOs. A government-industry interaction on the MNRE’s program was also intiated during the event.

Welcoming the delegates, Poornima Shenoy, president, ISA, stressed on the very strong partnership between the MNRE and the ISA. She added that this workshop was a first in a series of such workshops that will be held across the country. She requested the delegates to add as much value as possible to this edition, adding, “We look forward to your feedback, so that we can improve on our future programs.”Source: ISA

Industry-government interaction step in right direction
B.V. Naidu, chairman, ISA said that it was good to be part of a new revolution taking place in India. He added: “We have seen the success of the Indian IT industry and the Indian semiconductor design sector. That the MNRE is organizing an industry interaction on solar photovoltaics is a step in the right direction.” Naidu noted that India has all the features required for becoming a successful solar country.

Incidentally, the current installed capacity of solar PV is said to be over 400-500MW, but about 90 percent of that capacity is exported. As a case, in Germany, 4 percent of the overall power generation capacity has been generated out of solar. A lot of emphasis on solar PV also been happening in the USA and Chima.

Naidu added: “The Government of India has set an ambitious target of reaching 20GW by 2020. A lot of things need to be done in the country, and by the Indian solar PV industry. We are also looking at an equal amount of participation from the academia, so that we can look at ways of reducing costs and improving the efficiency of solar PV.

The ISA has already created the roadmap for the FabCity in Hyderabad. It is also organizing a solar conference in Hyderabad this November.

Solar to assure green technology in India
Dr B.M.S. Bist, Advisor, MNRE, said that solar PV is going to play a big role in assuring green technology in the country. A date of Nov. 14 has been set for Solar Mission Program, as already mentioned.

The MNRE’s focus has been at decentralized programs. Today, there are said to be 75MW of systems across the country. Dr. Bist added that significant targets have been set for the SPV systems. The ministry has now tried to make new schemes. These will be presented to the delegates and their views welcomed. Those views will be compiled and the ministry will revert to the industry, so both of them can march together.

Massive potential for solar PV in India
Addressing the delegates, Debashish Majumdar, chairman and managing director, IREDA, said the reason for the gathering today was very clear – what exists on the MNRE website is potential for renewable energy. However, it does not really highlight the potential for solar PV, which is massive!

He added: “When solar PV started about 15 years ago in India, we had small manufacturers starting in garages, etc., and who have now grown to become very large companies. It gives us a lot of hope that things can be done very well here as well. Any new technology, to begin with, is expensive. Therefore, it is the prerogative of the rich to adopt it. We all hope that we will have the volumes and the technologies that can be replicated in India.

“We look at solar from two aspects — off-grid and on-grid. We would like to see what kind of demand can we convert in the off-grid applications. In the subsequent session, we will see the steps that the ministry has taken. The policy has been made keeping the best interests of the industry. We would like to get your feedback and see how best to get the market going.”

Huge opportunity in off-grid applications
Ms Gauri Singh, IAS, joint secretary, MNRE said that the purpose of this interaction between the government and the industry is to give a loud and clear message to ind that “we would like to work with you as partners.”

She added: “A large portion of the solar mission target will come from grid connected solar power. However, the off-grid opportunity is also huge. We have tried to open up our policy slightly — and take the whole process forward by taking inputs from you — and open up the policy for suggestions. One part of the scenario is — we already have large manufacturers who can provide us solar modules. The other part — is our policy encouraging innovation.

“Now, the time is ripe where we can do only the broad technical specifications, etc., but leave the innovation and configuration of the off-grid solutions to the industry, and make it an enabling flavor.” She also called for a need to put out a third party monitoring system.

She further added that the MNRE was also working to see whether it could get the IREDA into a refinance operation with banks.

There are schemes in place, where if anyone wants to work with a bank, a lot of incentives are available to the banks. Now, the ministry would like to see incentives being given to the manufacturers.

This is an honest attempt on part of the MNRE to work closely with the industry. Hopefully, everything will go well, following this interaction as it will sow the right seeds toward reaping a full harvest — in shape of achieving the very ambitious target of the national solar mission plan!

There were presentations on the following topics as well:

* Details of the solar PV off-grid program (rooftop systems) — Dr. AK Varshney, MNRE
* Details of the solar PV off-grid program (other applications) — Dr. A. Raza, MNRE
* Financing of IREDA schemes for solar — BV Rao, IREDA

These presentations were followed by a marathon discussion between the MNRE and IREDA officials on behalf of the government of India and the members of the Indian solar photovoltaics industry.

National Solar Mission targets Nov 14 launch

This is a post appearing on Thaindian News (http://www.thaindian.com) on August 28! Reproduced here for readers.

KOLKATA, INDIA (IANS): India’s ambitious National Solar Mission, which aims to generate 20,000 megawatts of solar power by 2020, has a target launch date of Nov 14, a top official said here Friday.

“The overall structure and draft of the National Solar Mission have been approved by the prime minister (Manmohan Singh). The target date for the launch is Nov 14,” said Prime Minister’s Special Envoy on Climate Change Shyam Saran.

The mission, which is part of the National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC), aims to promote the development and use of solar energy for power generation and other uses with the ultimate objective of making solar energy competitive with fossil-based energy options.

“We are looking at a renewable purchase obligation with regard to solar energy. Utilities will have to include a specified minimum proportion of solar energy in their energy purchases,” Saran said.

Busy period ahead for Indian semicon, solar!

Yes, looks like it!

First, on August 31, the India Semiconductor Association and the UK-TI would be signing an MoU. The next day, September 1, there is a presentation by Ministry of New and Renewable Energy and key officials on the government of India’s policies to the industry!

Next, on September 4, the DIT Secretary, R. Chandrasekhar, and the Additional Secretary, will be interacting with semiconductor companies in Bangalore.

Further on, September 16 is the day when the Union Minister for New and Renewable Energy, Dr Farooq Abdullah, will be interacting with a small group of industry leaders at a solar PV conclave in Hyderabad!

That’s quite a lot, within a span of 15-odd days! Must say, this augurs well for the Indian semicon and solar/photovoltaics industry.

Interestingly, a lot of the big events are focusing on solar. So, my hunch is that the Indian solar industry may have some serious announcements to make in the coming weeks. Should that happen, I hope to bring those to you, time permitting.

P.S.: I am tempted to add -- Google permitting! It's been a tough week, where my main blog has disappeared, and well, the solar/PV, telecom and semiconductor blogs were first blocked and released -- these following a similar experience with my electronics blog. Now, Google has blocked the blog on electronic components. Hope the order will get restored soon!

Solar at the heart of utility corporate strategy!

DUBLIN, IRELAND: Research and Markets has announced the addition of the "Solar at the Heart of Utility Corporate Strategy" report to its offering.

The development of solar power is proceeding at a strong pace, yet necessary technological breakthroughs must now come from solar component manufacturers for the sector to undergo exponential growth. As the technology draws near grid parity, involvement from the major utilities as a source of significant demand will be of paramount importance.

* Market segmentation data, annual and cumulative solar cell production data, regional and national production shares and top 10 global cell producers.
* Solar installed capacity data for major US and European utilities and detailed market/technology/regulatory/company operational and financial drivers.
* An overview the drivers and implications of the current solar industry trends towards manufacture consolidation and vertical integration.
* Forecasts of annual/cumulative solar capacities and market growth potentials for utilities seeking to develop their solar strategy (13 key markets).

Manufacturing growth along the solar value chain has been dramatic by any standards: 2008 saw further large increases in solar production capacity, diversification of manufacturing locations and shifts in leadership. With new companies and fresh markets wrestling for prominence strong industry consolidation and vertical integration is now expected.

So far, solar manufacturers rather than established energy companies are exploiting opportunities presented by the fast-expanding market. Indeed, European utilities have largely shunned the solar market. However, European utilities will quickly become the largest and one of the most important customers for the solar industry.

India is emerging as an aspiring producer of solar technologies with the infrastructure to support utility-scale involvement. European utilities seeking to diversify into solar should also turn their attention to Italy's solar market, but also Germanys, which is expected to reclaim the number one spot as the most mature solar market worldwide.

Indian solar energy market outlook 2012 report

DUBLIN, IRELAND: Research and Markets has announced the addition of the "Indian Solar Energy Market Outlook 2012" report to its offering.

Solar energy offers enormous potential for a tropical country like India where around 45 percent of households, mainly rural ones, do not have access to electricity, says the new research report "Indian Solar Energy Market Outlook 2012."

India receives solar energy equivalent to more than 5,000 Trillion kWh per year, which is far more than its total annual energy consumption. The country's geographical location, large population and government support are also assisting it to become one of the most rapidly emerging solar energy markets in the world. Consequently, the country is becoming a favorite investment destination for both local as well as global players.

Demand for solar products has been rising rapidly over the recent years, especially in rural areas, and is expected to continue growing substantially during our forecast period (2009-2012). The total number of solar lanterns in India is projected to grow at a CAGR of about 40 percent between 2009 and 2012.

"Indian Solar Energy Market Outlook 2012" provides a rational analysis and extensive research on the solar power industry in India. It thoroughly examines the current industry trends which are adding to the growth of solar power market of the country.

The report highlights the emerging segments of solar power industry and their market potential to serve the enormous population of the country. It will help clients to understand the market dynamics and get an insight of the current and future outlook of solar power market in India.

Besides giving projections on various energy indicators, the report also gives forecast on various segments of the solar power industry based on feasible solar industry environment in India.

These include:
* Solar Street Lighting System
* Solar Home Lighting System
* Solar Lantern
* Solar Photovoltaic Pumps
* Solar Water Heating System
* Solar Cookers

The forecast given in this report is not based on a complex economic model, but is intended as a rough guide to the direction in which the market is likely to move. This forecast is based on correlations between past market growth, growth of base drivers and possible impact of recession in the economy.

The report also includes detailed information about the key players in the solar power industry of India including BHEL, BEL, CEL, TATA BP Solar India Ltd, Moser Baer India Ltd, Applied Materials Inc, and Solar Signet.

Opportunities in India's solar/PV landscape: SEMI India

Solar/photovoltaics (PV) holds tremendous potential and promise for India, a fact not hidden from anyone. To further highlight its importance, SEMI India unveiled its first paper on Solar PV in India yesterday afternoon.

More action from Indian government needed
The meet called for more action from the government of India, a more closer industry-government collaboration, as well as the need for financial institutions to pay more attention to the solar/PV segment in India.

The photo here shows from left to right: Dr. Madhusudan V. Atre, President, Applied Materials India; Dr. J. Gururaja, Renewable Energy Action Forum & Executive President, SEMI India; K. Subramanya, CEO, Tata BP Solar; and Sathya Prasad, president, SEMI India.

Touching on the rationale for this SEMI paper on solar/PV's landscape in India, Dr. J. Gururaja, Renewable Energy Action Forum and Executive President, SEMI India, said it was meant to project the solar/PV industry's perspective: where we are and what needs to be done! This is a first account report and will be followed by many other such reports.

He said: "Solar in general, and PV in particular, can address the challenges that we face today. Solar/PV has a special attraction. It converts solar to electricity without involving any moving parts."

He added that although the industry has been looking at the potential, the markets have not been expanding as expected. "We need to see what can be done and achieved. This report is a stock-taking exercise," he pointed out.

Case for solar/PV in India
Sathya Prasad, president of SEMI India, touched upon the case for PV in India. These include:
* The existing power deficit situation in many parts of the country.
* India's brisk economic growth implies rising energy needs.
* Overdependence on coal for electricity generation -- limited coal reserves and CO2 emissions.
* Overdependence on oil and natural gas imports -- it accounts for 7 percent of GDP and consequent energy security concerns.

According to him, India is abundantly endowed with solar radiation. So far, so good!

Key PV opportunities for India
According to SEMI's paper, the key PV opportunities for India lie in off-grid applications and grid-connected PV. The off-grid applications include:
* Basic lighting and electrification of rural homes.
* Irrigation pump sets.
* Power back-up for cellular base station towers -- approximately, there will be 2.9 lakh base station towers by the end of 2009.
* Urban applications -- such as street lighting, etc.

The opportunities in grid-connected PV exist in:
* The current grid connected PV generation capacity is very small.
* Existing power deficit and huge projected future need.
* The cost point of PV has been declining continuously with technology improvements and scale.

Benefits of PV in India
The benefits of PV in India extend well beyond addressing energy needs. For instance, renewable energy technologies create more jobs than any fossil fuel based technologies. It also creates jobs across the value chain -- from R&D to manufacturing, installation and maintenance. Sathya Prasad highlighted MNRE's point that about 100,000 jobs could be created out of PV.

PV also has the capability of transforming lives. About 450 million Indians today manage with kerosene/other fuels for very basic lighting despite its significant health and safety risks. In this context, special mention needs to be made of the Aryavarta Grameen Bank's home electrification program.

Challenges for PV in India
Evidently, a bunch of opportunities are awaiting India in the solar/PV space. However, several challenges need to be overcome as well. These would be:
* Need for closer industry-government co-operation.
* Need for standards.
* Need for collaborative, goals driven R&D.
* Training and human resources development
* Need for financing infrastructure and models.

So, what are the recommendations of this paper on solar/PV landscape in India, and further call to action? These are:
* Need to evolve a common government-industry vision to make India a world leader in PV.
* Develop financing infrastructure and models that will motivate large-scale PV adoption and investments.
* Expand development of PV in off-grid applications.
* Accelerate grid-connected PV generation on a large scale.

Call for low carbon growth strategy
"Low carbon growth path is universal now. To make that happen, there needs to be a political will," advised K. Subramanya, CEO, Tata BP Solar, and chairman SEMI India PV Advisory Committee, while presenting his perspective on the solar/PV industry in India.

There has been little action on part of the government of India. "This needs to be implemented on the ground. We need policy and lifestyle innovation," he added. Subramanya cautioned that, "Too much of analysis will result in paralysis." According to him, separate budgets are required for a low carbon growth strategy. "Solar has tremendous potential. Even its learning curve is brilliant," Subramanya noted.

He added that if the European Union (EU) can make a low carbon journey so smoothly, then why not India? For instance, in Karnataka state alone, the demand is said to be 6700MW and a 10-11 percent peak shortage. We have 20-odd lakh Bhagya Jyoti and Kutir Jyoti units, and around 7,870-odd street lights. If a majority of these can be replaced by solar, it could lead to tremendous savings! This could be at least 57MW for a state like Karnataka. Apparently, all of this would require an investment of Rs. 52 crores and a payback time of two years.

"Why can't we develop a low-carbon growth path for every state in India? Imagine, what it can do for the other states," Subramanya highlighted. "If the power sector does not do well, it will hit the country's GDP!" Quite rightly so!!

Subramanya cited another example of solar water heaters in Karnataka. There are 32 lakh homes, of which about 5 lakh homes have solar water heaters. If more houses were to adopt these, it would result in a saving of 4,000MW of electricity! The Tata BP Solar CEO also called upon financial institutions to have a closer look at solar. Even the tariffs structure for solar/PV in India is not favorable enough.

He also touched upon US President Barack Obama's energy plan and the actions taken, since his comin to power, and drew a parallel with India's national action plan, which includes a solar mssion. This was released last June, but hardly any action has happened on the ground. So, there needs be changes on this front as well.

Four key aspects for solar/PV in India
Dr. Madhusudan V. Atre, president, Applied Materials India and vice chairman SEMI India PV Advisory Committee, highlighted four major aspects while presenting his perspective on the solar/PV industry. These are:
* See the advantage SEMI India brings to India. It can help bring costs down, due to the involvement of the PV Group.
* A point Dr. Atre had highlighted to me about a year back -- that solar/PV is a great way to trigger manufacturing in India. He said that the solar/PV ecosystem will be a very important step in setting up a semiconductor manufacturing ecosystem in the country.
* What wireless did to telecom -- perhaps, solar/PV has a similar aim! It can get rid of transmission lines and actually take power to the people!
* The Indian government-academia-industry would need to work hand-in-hand.

Time for Indian semicon to step up! Yes or No?

I was really happy to see a comment on my blog post: What India now offers to the global semicon industry, left by Tom Morrow, author of the SEMISpice blog, and Vice President of Global Expositions and Marketing, SEMI. Thanks for visiting and commenting, Tom.

You said: Your description of India's Special Incentives Package Schemes for setting up and operating semiconductor fabrication as a "debacle" is off the mark. Is it really wise for the country to join an already crowded semiconductor manufacturing ecosystem when it can apply its scarce resources to join 30-50 year boom in solar, something the country desperately needs for both domestic and export development?"

"The move to solar is the right one. India had nine manufacturers of solar cells and about twice as many module makers. Most of these proposals have been in response to the Government’s announcement of a Special Incentives Package Scheme under the 2007 Semiconductor Policy.

"About 70 percent of India’s solar cell and PV module production has been exported. This is likely to change in the near future as government policy provides the push for PV deployment and following the recent release of guidelines for grid connected solar generation. Several states in India, including Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat, Karnataka, Punjab, Rajasthan and West Bengal have also announced their own solar policies, plans and incentive packages in recent months.

"ISA and SEMI has recognized the great opportunities in solar and have taken supportive leadership positions. While both organizations would love to see a domestic semi fab industry emerge in India, given the overcapcity in the industry today, the transition to solar has been swift, thoughtful, and right on the mark."

First up, Tom, I did not formulate SIPS or the Indian semicon policy! I too thought India would soon build a wafer IC fab! Several delegations have visited India, in the past, with companies hoping to work with these so-called wafer IC fabs in India. I am merely a small time blogger, offering my opinions. And I love my country, no less than any other Indian!

Perhaps, you should see some of the press these 'so-called fabs' received! All the talk of a wafer IC fab only died down with SemIndia late last year!

If folks read my posts carefully, I've discussed how India has been doing fine before the semicon policy and post the policy, fab or no fab! Some knowledgeable experts have even said that fabless India shines brightly! It has shone before, and continues to do so!

Neither do I have anything against solar and the solar industry! It is a great way to trigger off manufacturing in India. Did I say otherwise?

I work closely with ISA, in fact, was present, when ISA was born, back in October 2004, and also know Sathya Prasad at SEMI India quite well. It's a great initiative that's going on in solar in this country. So, yes, the move to solar is a very correct one!

Still on wafer IC fabs, one expert even goes on to say that India could look at skipping the current node of technology and make an entry into the one that will be prevalent after few years.

However, my focus is essentially on semiconductor manufacturing! As many industry experts never fail to say at conferences, India needs to move up the semicon value chain! We need more semicon product start-ups!! And, that's not happening fast enough!

Perhaps, we can just discard all of these ideas and go on being a leading player in design services (which, we already are), a much easier option.

I would still go with what Malcolm Penn of Future Horizons' says, that India needs to re-think its semiconductor strategy! It cannot survive on chip design alone!

Even the recently held ISA Vision Summit had a session: Indian design influence: Ideas to volume! Speakers discussed how India should seize opportunities, especially in this downturn, and that, it is time for the Indian semiconductor industry to step up, put the right innovations in place and grow.

I am very interested in hosting an event in India on this topic -- Time for India to step up: Put right innovations in place and grow! However, as I said, I am merely a small time blogger, trying to make a living. I hope I can find some support to host such an event at least once in India.

I am simply delighted that my post has drawn the interest of such a senior person at SEMI. Thank you, sir!

Outlook for solar photovoltaics in 2009!

Friends and dear readers, this is my last blog post for 2008! Indeed, what a year this has been!!

Let me bid this year goodbye with a general outlook on the global solar photovoltaics industry for 2009.

iSuppli had recently put out a report on solar eclipse coming in 2009! I had blogged about the possible solar sunburn ahead, as well, earlier last week!

Another point that has interested me is: what happens to the top 20 global solar photovoltaic companies, based on iSuppli's analysis! This blog post has perhaps been the most popular in recent times.

I was very lucky to re-associate with Dr. Henning Wicht, Senior Director, Principal Analyst, iSuppli Deutschland GmbH, in Munich, Germany, for this discussion, thanks to the efforts of Jon Cassell and Debra Jaramilla!

How bad is solar?
The first and the most obvious question: how bad is the global solar market right now and why?

According to iSuppli, bringing an end to eight consecutive years of growth, global revenue for photovoltaic (PV), panels is likely to plunge by nearly 20 percent in 2009, as a massive oversupply causes prices to drop!

Worldwide revenue from shipments of panels will decline to $12.9 billion in 2009, down 19.1 percent from $15.9 billion in 2008. A drop of this magnitude has not occurred in the last 10 years and likely has not happened in the entire history of the solar industry.

Dr. Henning Wicht says that the upstream part of the solar business (cell, module, etc.) will suffer from price decline due to strong oversupply. The downstream side will benefit (installation, end-user, investor, etc.) by lower system prices.

Therefore, what can the solar players do to get over this coming bad phase in 2009? Well, three things: improve the cost structure, improve the sales side, and diversify downstream… These points hold strong for all fully integrated and non-integrated solar panel suppliers as well. By the way, fully integrated solar panel suppliers are likely to suffer less severe losses than non-integrated competitors.

There must be some way around to to bring about some balance within the current imbalance in the demand and supply situation. While Dr. Wicht agrees this is a difficult one to answer this early, he adds that supply and demand are diverging heavily. "With the current trajectories even in 2012, 100 percent more modules are produced than installed," he says. I promise to discuss this question again with the good Dr. in another six months time.

Word of wisdom
There are various support programs in place, and it is important to know whether they will continue to remain beneficial, both to support markets to become independent sustainable and to develop the regional industry.

Dr. Wicht believes the support programs are still required and beneficial. "If China, India, Mexico and other sunny regions would start to support solar installations, that could change the picture drastically," he notes.

A note of warning for new entrants in the solar photovoltaic space! Be aware that this warning has been earlier highlighted in the global semiconductor outlook for 2009! In tune with what the various analysts have maintained earlier, iSuppli also forsees newcomers in the solar photovoltaic line having problems in getting the required credit for their projects.

What next for Europe, emerging regions?
According to iSuppli, the short-term boost in demand from Spain and Germany has kept the installation companies busy, and solar orders and module prices high. But this boom is over. So, what's next for European players?

According to Dr. Wicht, Germany and Spain should continue their leading role as solar installation regions, even after the boom. France, Italy and Czech Republic are attractive, but still much smaller markets, he maintains.

iSuppli has also mentioned that the race to larger manufacturing scale comes to an end when the production is not sold anymore! In that case, what's the case for the emerging nations, like China and India? Aren't there buyers in such places?

Dr. Wicht says: "Demand in the traditional solar markets is not elastic enough to absorb all of the solar production. Potential new markets, for example, China and India, do not yet have installation capacities and administration to significantly change the global solar demand short term."

iSuppli also feels that the newer Chinese and Taiwanese suppliers will be hit particularly hard during 2009. The reason being, many suppliers have expanded their production capacities heavily without securing equally the sales/downstream part.

Global top 20 rankings to change?
Now to the most interesting part! Most of you have read about the top 20 global solar photovoltaic suppliers. Following the iSuppli warning of a 'solar eclipse' in 2009, there is every likelihood that there will be changes in that table!

Dr. Wicht adds, "However, the top 10 companies are typically better placed than the competition regarding their cost structures, downstream integration and vertical integration."

Obama's solar plans!
Now on to yet other interesting point! The US President-elect, Barack Obama's, New Energy for America plan could well have a significant impact on the US solar industry.

The plan's provisions include:

• A federal renewable portfolio standard (RPS) that requires 10 percent of electricity consumed in the US to come from renewable sources by 2012.
• A $150 billion investment over 10 years in research, technology demonstration and commercial deployment of clean energy technology.
• Extension of production tax credits for five years to encourage renewable energy production.
• A cap-and-trade system of carbon credits to provide an incentive for businesses to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Dr. Wicht says: "We all know that Obama is in favor of renewable energy. However, he will not change a 160 percent oversupply of solar panels in 2009."

Bumpy ride to grid parity?
On another note, and a pretty favorite one: Is it going to be a "bumpy road" to grid parity? How will the subsidies be kept going?

Dr. Wicht notes: "Subsidies will continue. It will always be a bumby road because the ramping cycles differ heavily among silicon, cells, modules and the installation capacity. Please remember that the installation business will now benefit from low module prices. It will recover some of the margins it has lost in the last years due to high module prices."

Also, up to when will polysilicon constraints last? iSuppli had earlier indicated PV strategy changes. According to Dr. Wicht, the polysilicon prices are coming down already. "Our indication from October 2008 seems to be fairly good," he says.

Lastly, will iSuppli be still sticking by solar, semicon investments being equal by 2010?

Dr. Wicht says: "Please let me cite again our interview in October: The investments for solar production raising up to several hundreds of Mio USD, up to 1 Bio $ per production site. That is coming close to a semiconductor fab. The total capex of semiconductor is still 10 times larger than PV. However, PV is rising much faster."

That will be all for this year, folks!

Look forward to sharing much more captivating moments in semiconductors, electronics, solar photovoltaics, telecom, etc., in 2009!

Wishing all of you a very happy, prosperous and successful 2009. Be safe and look after yourself! See you next year!! :)

Why solar/PV is good for India? An ISA perspective!

Recently, the India Semiconductor Association (ISA) held an educative briefing session on the potential of the solar PV market in India, which was conducted by Rajiv Jain, Director, Government Relations, ISA.

This meeting was held well before iSuppli issued a warning that there could be global solar sunburn in 2009! I am sincerely hoping that most of the points mentioned by ISA's Jain still hold good in the coming year, and that India really does well and takes off in solar photovoltaics.

The ISA's vision: To help make India an attractive global destination for PV manufacturing and a world leader in solar energy.

Starting with the basics of photovoltaics, he said that it is a package of solar cells used to convert energy from sun to electricity. In simpler words, photons from sunlight knock electrons into higher state of energy, thus creating electricity. The electricity can be used to power equipment or recharge a battery. A typical PV system mainly consists of a PV module, battery, inverter, controller and junction box.

Focusing on the technological landscape, he touched upon the two key technologies for solar: crystalline and thin film.

Crystalline silicon is said to be the most mature Si wafer technology, with the largest market share. Though, high on cost, it has a typical efficieny of 14-18 percent. Crystalline silicon is said to suitable for rooftop applications.

Thin film is nothing but thin layers of photosensitive materials on glass. It is currently on high growth due to silicon shortage, and very low on cost due to low material consumption. The efficiency is about 6.5-8 percent.

A third technology, nanotechnology, is the future technology for cost reduction. It is more in the R&D space as of now.

Present scenario for solar
So what's the present scenario? In 2007, of $71 billion invested in new renewable energy (RE) capacity globally, 30 percent was in solar PV. It is the fastest growing area in the energy sector, with a CAGR of 47 percent over the last five years.

Grid-connected solar PV has been high growth market segment in 2007 (50 percent increase). Also, 86 percent of the PV installations are largely in four countries, with Germany at 47 percent being the outright leader.

Market drivers are said to be attractive feed-in tariffs, national PV market development and acceptance, RE obligations through solar PV, access to cheaper mode of finance, manufacturing incentives as well as strong R&D.

Why solar for India
I have addressed this in an earlier blog post. Here's what Jain had to say, and it is mostly in line with the earlier discussions.

First, India has among the highest solar irradiance globally. It also has the best quality reserves of silica in Orissa and Andhra Pradesh. India has also established itself low cost producer and assembler of solar PV cells and modules.

The major challenges include attaining scale and integration for cost reduction, and, R&D for development of the industry.

Solar insolation in India
To start with, the daily average solar energy incident varies from 4-7kWh per m2. Next, we have multiple sites with solar irradiation >2000 hours per year. In contrast, Germany has 900-1,200 hours per year. Further, most parts of India have 300-300 sunny days in a year translating into a potential of 600GW. Also, potential in some states like Rajasthan is 35-40 MW per m2.

It is well known that the Indian semiconductor policy of 2007 has triggered off the now well publicized efforts in solar initiatives. The government of India has received 16 applications with investments envisaged at app Rs. 1,55,000 crores.

The investments in solar PV manufacturing exceed Rs 1,25,000 crores. Generation based incentives (GBI) are going to be key.

Potential market segments in India
There are quite a few, actually. In rural electrification, the government of India's target is to achieve 'Electricity for all by 2012'. About 18,000 remote villages will likely be electrified through RE. About ~25 percent of the remote villages, i.e., 4,500 villages, form a very viable market.

Next comes telecom back-up power! PV is a cost effective alternative to diesel generators (DG) for back up power for shorter duration, as DG based systems suffer from several disadvantages.

Another key market could be grid connected solar PV based generation. Current tariffs do not provide attractive IRR to developers. Decreasing system prices are however, likely to improve the economics.

Finally, roof based BIPV is said to be an alternative to reduce the cost of power procured by commercial buildings.

ISA's recommendations
The ISA has also made salient recommendations via its report on the industry. These include areas such as manufacturing: with an aim to encourage companies investing in 'Scale and integration', provision of capital subsidy to larger number of units, availability of funds at a cheaper rate, and an emphasis on R&D.

Also, the ISA has recommended that GBI be given for a tenure of 20 years, with the present period being 10 years. Further, it has suggested an accelerated depreciation along with the GBI scheme, and the availability of GBI for an unlimited capacity for a period of five years. The ISA has recommended an enactment of the RE Law requiring utilities to progressively increase power purchase from RE.

On its part, the ISA has been working with the government of India and various state governments as well. It has a sound rapport with concerned ministries - MNRE, DIT and NMCC.

The ISA has also assisted in the technical evaluation of solar PV proposals received in Fab City, Hyderabad. It has also drafted a semiconductor policy for the government of Karnataka, which should be out early next year, hopefully. The ISA is also working with several other state governments to promote the industry in their states.

The second ISA Solar PV Conclave is scheduled for November 2009 at Hyderabad.

Very good intentions, all of these! Now, for the Indian industry and the government to deliver, and walk hand in hand!!

Solar sunburn likely in 2009? India, are you listening?

iSuppli's just issued a warning that 2009 could well see the coming of a solar market eclipse!

Come to think of it! Just last week, in the Semiconductor International webcast, the analysts did mention that there could be tough times ahead for solar! In fact, Aida Jebens, Senior Economist, VLSI Research Inc., did indicate that solar/PV would pick up in the next two years and that 2009 could be a tough year.

If you look at the India situation, I have been getting the feeling all the time that all of a sudden, too many companies were entering this market segment, as though it is a land of promised gold! Perhaps, it is, and one sincerely wishes that all of those investments proposed for solar do not come unstuck.

This August, following the announcement of the national semiconductor policy (the Special Incentive Package Scheme, or SIPS), the government of India received 12 proposals amounting to a total investment of Rs. 92,915.38 crore. Ten of these proposals were for solar/PV, from: KSK Surya (Rs. 3,211 crore), Lanco Solar (Rs. 12,938 crore), PV Technologies India (Rs. 6,000 crore), Phoenix Solar India (Rs.1,200 crore), Reliance Industries (Rs.11,631 crore), Signet Solar (Rs. 9,672 crore), Solar Semiconductor (Rs.11,821 crore), TF Solar Power (Rs. 2,348 crore), Tata BP Solar India (Rs. 1,692.80 crore), and Titan Energy System (Rs. 5,880.58 crore).

Then, late September, Vavasi Telegence (Rs. 39,000 crore), EPV Solar (Rs. 4,000 crore), and Lanco Solar (Rs. 12,938 crore), also announced major investments.

Now, given the quite ruthless kind of financial crisis the world is currently engulfed in, several have raised doubts whether solar players would be able to get the credit they need. Or, would they run into rough weather?

On paper, some of these companies are big corporate houses, with several years of standing. However, reality can be quite different, and can bite! I've yet to hear whether all of these companies have managed to raise the requisite capital. One sure wishes that they have all been busy and will be successful!

Otherwise, all one needs to look at is iSuppli's warning. According to iSuppli, 'Bringing an end to eight consecutive years of growth, global revenue for photovoltaic (PV), panels is expected to plunge by nearly 20 percent in 2009, as a massive oversupply causes prices to drop.'

Will it be a case of massive oversupply in India? We haven't exactly started. Hence, perhaps, we will come to deal with oversupply later. The key thing is to get all of these solar/PV projects off the ground!

The India Semiconductor Association (ISA), and now, SEMI India, have been promoting the solar/PV industry very aggressively. The work they've done so far has been commendable, and I've been witness to all of their activities. However, keep in mind that these are only industry associations, who can only advice, guide, debate and promote the industry, and also provide industry statistics for everyone to consume.

The real action can only happen once the proposals have been cleared by the Indian government and the players have managed to arrange for the requisite capital for their projects. The Indian fab story with SemIndia is all to familiar, and there should not be a repitition with solar/PV projects.

Therefore, the role of the government of India will be extremely critical and crucial. The good health of the Indian solar/PV industry is entirely in its hands, and not in the hands of the industry associations.

Perhaps, the Indian government could do well to look at how the Taiwan government is playing a critical role in reviving the hard hit DRAM industry and also at the German free state of Saxony, which has played a key role in financing the ailing Qimonda.

Otherwise, the Indian solar/PV industry could get hit, even before it takes off the ground! And, as a nation, we cannot afford that to happen!

India has so far has had a good story going in solar. There are hopes that solar/PV will trigger off a spate of manufacturing activities in India, besides creating lots of jobs. Don't think we can afford to spoil all of this!

The industry in India is still very much in its infancy. Let the baby play happily in the water (solar) tub, instead of throwing the water out! This baby needs a lot of hand-holding to get stronger in the years to come.

Solar/PV is just right for India

There have been significant investments in the solar/photovoltaic space in India in the recent past, and that does not look like ending any time soon.

Given the ongoing global financial crisis, and the state of the global semiconductor industry, it appears that India has bet quite successfully on the solar/PV segment. In fact, it seems that solar/PV is just right for India! In fact, it may just kick off the kind manufacturing activity India really needs.

Poornima Shenoy, president, India Semiconductor Association (ISA), says that solar/PV is right for India for a variety of reasons.

Firstly, India has among the highest solar irradiance, globally. Secondly, it is established as a low-cost producer and assembler of solar PV cells and modules. And thirdly, India has among the best quality reserves of silica in the states of Orissa and Andhra Pradesh.

She adds: "At present, solar PV may not seem to be an attractive option, primarily due to high generation costs. However, in the coming years, with increases in fossil fuel prices, rising environmental concerns, and a reduction in the cost of solar PV technology, it is likely to become a major source of energy."

The ISA expects 2015 to be an important year for the solar/PV industry. Around this time, the product cost of the Indian solar PV industry is likely to match the semi grid parity (peak power) globally, and also to match the grid parity within India.

The four major segments offering maximum potential in the coming years for solar PV in India are: rural electrification -- decentralized distributed generation (DDG); grid interactive solar PV power plants; backup power for telecom (base transceiver stations); and roof-based solar PV systems.

ISA-NMCC report on solar/PV
The ISA recently released a report on the solar PV market in New Delhi with NMCC (National Manufacturing Competitiveness Council).

According to the ISA-NMCC study, of the US$71 billion invested in new, renewable energy capacity globally in 2007, 30 percent of was in solar PV. Solar PV is the fastest growing area in the energy sector, with a CAGR of 47 percent over the last five years. The grid-connected solar PV segment saw 50 percent growth in 2007.

As per the report, the solar PV industry is likely to grow four-fold by 2011. However, there are various uncertainties in the short- to medium-term on both the supply and the demand side.

On the supply side, the main constraint is the lack of available polysilicon. The demand side is limited by the quantum of incentives for solar PV.

Gradually, there will likely be improvements in technology. The decreasing cost of manufacturing could drive the preferential tariffs lower, and ongoing demand for PV products could also attract significant investment.

As for the global solar PV supply chain. Thin-film production is one of the fastest growing segments in solar. The lack of available polysilicon is limiting growth, and this has led to the emergence of thin-film technology. This technology has enjoyed substantial growth since 2005: 80 percent in 2006 and over 100 percent in 2007.

Solar, semi rocking in India; global semi recovery in 2010?

Wow! What a start for October! We have had a whole new range of activities going on! Fist, late September, the India Semiconductor Association organized a solar/PV conclave in New Delhi, where plans were laid out for India's roadmap in the solar/PV field. the ISA-NMCC (National Manufacturing Competitiveness Council) report on the Indian solar PV market was also released at the conclave.

According to Poornima Shenoy, president, ISA, the year 2015 could be important for this industry. She said, "Around this time, the product cost of the Indian solar PV industry is likely to match the semi grid parity (peak power) globally, and also to match the grid parity within India."

Next, AMD joined hands with Advanced Technology Investment Co. (ATIC) of Abu Dhabi to create "The Foundry Company", a leading-edge foundry production outfit. It will also join the IBM joint development alliance for silicon-on-insulator (SOI) and bulk silicon through 22nm generation. It will be very interesting to see how AMD now takes on Intel!

Messe Munchen put out a white paper on "How China, India and Eastern Europe are changing the global electronics market." This is not surprising at all! You can download the report by clicking on the link here, and I must say, the report is really engaging!

On the same lines, Gartner came up with its analysis that China is dominating the global semiconductor scene, and that both India and Vietnam are gaining! India's growing might in semicon is well documented! Also, last month, I had mentioned how the lack of a fab or the exit of a top professional from an Indian semicon firm would not hamper India's growing fortunes in this industry!

The trials and tribulations of the global semiconductor industry were already touched upon by Derek Lidow of iSuppli. Analysts such as Malcolm Penn of Future Horizons and those at Gartner have been saying similar things, more or less. Penn advises that this is the time to stop chasing fashion and get back to basics. He adds, "The good news being the industry basics are mercifully as good as they get back."

Gartner only expects a recovery for semiconductors sometime in 2010! According to Gartner, a collapse in memory spending, combined with a weak economy, is driving a major contraction in semiconductor capital equipment spending in 2008. The slowdown is likely to continue into 2009 before the industry recovers in 2010.

SEMI now has a presence in India. Sathya Prasad, formerly of Cadence, has been appointed as president of SEMI India with immediate effect. This is a further indication of India's growing leadership in the semicon space. I will be getting into a discussion with Sathya Prasad sometime later.

Of course, we have the usual stuff like companies selling off or retiring 200mm fabs. Examples are NXP, Hynix, Renesas, etc. Also, DRAM prices continue to be weak and suppliers could likely face a credit crunch.

Interesting mix of happenings, isn't it! While India rocks in solar and semicon, we are still speculating on a recovery for the global semiconductor industry. About time India took the lead in making that happen!

Finally, I was busy with Durga Puja, and hence, didn't blog in a while. Will try my best and make up for my absence. I would like to take this opportunity to wish SHUBHO BIJOYA to all of my Bengali and non-Bengali friends.