The Global Semiconductor Monthly Report June 2008 from Future Horizons, states: Let the market beware; it is no longer business as usual!
I would completely agree! For instance, the industry has since long moved to fabless, and now, fabless firms are ranking among the very best. Or, even from 130nm to 22nm process nodes, or from 180mm fabs to 450mm fabs!! Fair enough?
Coming back to the industry trends, Malcom Penn, CEO, Future Horizons, says that compared with March, the IC units were up and ASPs were down in April, even after adjusting for March being a five-week month. The net result was a 7.7 percent revenue decline! Does this spell more bad news for the beleaguered chip market?
Certainly, this seems to be the industry consensus view. Always the contrarian, Future Horizons' views are different. Here's how! April's results came in exactly as expected. Also, the unit rise and fall was simply the result of the engrained 'making the quarterly number' mentality!
Digging beneath the layers reveals a set of market fundamentals that are in remarkably strong form. The penny may not yet have dropped to the table, but, even for the chip industry ever full of surprises, let the market beware; it is no longer business as usual.
Penn says: To paraphrase the late Sir Winston Churchill's comments on Russia, "The chip industry too is a riddle wrapped up in an enigma". It marches to its own complex interwoven pattern of rules, each relatively simple when viewed in isolation, but contriving to interact in a volatile and unique way. Right now, the industry is at its most confused [state] for a decade, battered by a barrage of uncertainties and contradictions. Shell-shocked and confused, confidence is off the agenda … just when what is needed most is cool heads and determination."
Be it falling cap ex, tight capacity, focus on profits, continuing strong market demand, second half seasonal effects, according to him, the forecast tea leaves all seem to be pointing in the same positive direction. Has the worm finally turned then for the industry? He thinks so! Future Horizons also thinks that the "penny has yet to drop and that the impact on the market will be seismic and dramatic".
Earlier, the Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) reported that worldwide sales of semiconductors of $21.8 billion in May were 7.5 percent higher than the $20.3 billion reported for May 2007, reflecting continued strong sales of consumer electronic products. May sales were 2.8 percent higher than the $21.2 billion reported for April 2008.
Do bear in mind that May is historically a strong month for semiconductor sales, as per SIA.
NAND strong minus Apple effect
DRAMeXchange has indicated in its monthly review on the DRAM segment that the NAND Flash prices are likely to gradually stabilize after mid-July pushing by lower price, new demand from 3G iPhone, smart phones and low-cost PCs.
Elsewhere, as reported by Semiconductor International, according to Semico, NAND unit shipments are likely to cross over 3.5 billion units in 2008 as against 2.5 billion units in 2007, leading to a year-over-year growth of 35 percent.
However, reflecting the memory segment's ASP (average selling price) crunch, NAND revenues will grow 13 percent in 2008, down compared to 25 percent in 2007." Semico has said that the NAND industry will record a growth year in 2008, without experiencing what it has called the 'Apple effect'.
Heartening solar initiatives
The one heartening thing to note has been the various solar related initiatives that have taken place over the past month (actually, for over the year!). In fact, iSuppli has probably been spot on while analyzing that investments in solar and semiconductors could be on par by 2010!
SVTC Technologies, an independent semiconductor process-development foundry, announced that its SVTC Solar business unit has launched the Silicon Valley Photovoltaic Development Center in San Jose. Canadian Solar and LDK Solar signing a new agreement for an additional 800MW of solar wafers, besides LDK updating on its polysilicon plant in China.
National Semiconductors also entered the PV market with its SolarMagic technology that maximizes solar energy production. Evergreen Solar, a maker of solar power panels with its proprietary, low-cost String Ribbon wafer technology, signed two new long-term sales contracts. Tokyo Ohka Kogyo Co. Ltd and IBM are also collaborating to establish new, low-cost methods for developing the next generation of solar energy products.
Not be left behind, Intel too is spinning off key assets of a start-up business effort inside Intel's New Business Initiatives group to form an independent firm called SpectraWatt.
In India, solar has been making rapid strides, especially at the Fab City in Hyderabad. There is a possibility of something similar happening in Karnataka state as well.
Indeed, semiconductors are no longer business as usual! Right?
Wednesday, July 2, 2008
Sunday, June 29, 2008
10-point program for Karnataka semicon policy
A very interesting question was recently thrown at me: what sort of semiconductor policy should Karnataka adopt as a state! I shall attempt to highlight some of the activities the Karnataka government can look at implementing in the semicon/EMS space.
Let us first go back to last September, when the Indian government issued fab guidelines. Besides wafer IC and solar/PV fabs, the Indian government is seeking investments in ecosystem units for LCDs, OLEDs, PDPs, photovoltaics, solar cells, storage devices, advanced micro and nanotech products, etc.
The 'ecosystem units' have been clearly defined as units, other than a fab unit, for manufacture of semiconductors, displays, including LCDs, OLEDs, PDPs, any other emerging displays; storage devices; solar cells; photovoltaics; other advanced micro and nanotechnology products; and assembly and test of all the above products.
For starters, the Karnataka state needs to have a long-term semiconductor policy in place, running 20-25 years or so. This cannot be a short-term plan! It would be prudent to have the top Indian leaders from Indian firms and MNCs, e.g., Ittiam, MindTree, Synopsys, Cadence, TI, Analog Devices, as well as the Indian Institute of Science and some other leading technology institutes, be the part of a core state semiconductor policy team to oversee the implementations. Future state governments would only need to update the status and keep it rolling forward.
Incentives need to be built in as well, including more tax holidays, etc. Whether it needs to be 25-30 percent or higher, is to be debated. Next, the focus of a semicon policy should be aimed at solving some particular local problem, which can go on to solve a much bigger national problem.
All of this should be done with, keeping in view to improving the infrastructure in the state, such as roads, water, electricity, etc. Foreign investors would shy away if infrastructure issues were not tackled first.
In this context, the Karnataka government should first look at having some solar/PV fabs in the state, as well as those in the nanotech space. Next, it would be prudent to pursue a policy of attracting companies in the verification and testing domains. Rather, have companies in the ATMP space, a pointer, which has been coming up in most of the discussions.
As an example, last year, an Israeli company -- Nova Measuring Instruments -- was keen on entering India. Nova develops, produces, and markets advanced monitoring, measurement and process control systems for the semiconductor manufacturing industry. It should be pursued to start assembly and testing of products in the state.
Wafer IC fabs are going to be a tough act to follow. Unless a company can get the requisite funding for a 300mm fab, it is not advisable to follow that path. However, there is room for developing 200mm fabs, or even 150mm and 180mm fabs. These can be used to develop indigenous and simple applications. If such fabs are developed, those companies offering fab-related services can be attracted as well.
The Indian semicon policy statement speaks about having ecosystem units. It would be advisable to attract smaller companies and look at setting up manufacturing units. As an example, Synopsys's Subhash Bal had once pointed out how RFID can be used in a host of applications. That's not all. Why not pursue companies in the OLEDs/LEDs and PDPs spaces as well, besides those manufacturing LCDs, even if smaller-sized.
Finally, consider attracting and promoting companies in the fabless space, as it looks to be the way ahead for the semiconductor industry.
Here is a 10-point program for the Karnataka government to consider as a likely semiconductor policy.
1. A long-term semiconductor policy running 20-25 years or so.
2. Core team of top Indian leaders from Indian firms and MNCs, as well as technology institutes in Karnataka to oversee policy implementation.
3. Incentives such as government support, including stake in investments, and tax holidays.
4. Strong infrastructure availability and management.
5. Focus on having solar/PV fabs in the state.
6. Consider having 150/180/200mm fabs that tackle local problems via indigenous applications.
7. Develop companies in the assembly testing, verification and packaging (ATMP) space.
8. Attract companies in fields such as RFID, to address local problems and develop local applications.
9. Pursue companies in the PDP, OLED/LED space to set up manufacturing units.
10. Promote and set up more fabless units.
There should be some steps to create specific zones for setting up such units -- for fabs, fabless, ATMP, manufacturing, etc., all spread equally across the state.
On a personal note, I would be keen and willing to work with the Indian/Karnataka government, or the concerned parties, in formulating such a policy, should I am invited. Nothing would give me greater pleasure than seeing India, and Karnataka, shining in the semiconductor space.
Let us first go back to last September, when the Indian government issued fab guidelines. Besides wafer IC and solar/PV fabs, the Indian government is seeking investments in ecosystem units for LCDs, OLEDs, PDPs, photovoltaics, solar cells, storage devices, advanced micro and nanotech products, etc.
The 'ecosystem units' have been clearly defined as units, other than a fab unit, for manufacture of semiconductors, displays, including LCDs, OLEDs, PDPs, any other emerging displays; storage devices; solar cells; photovoltaics; other advanced micro and nanotechnology products; and assembly and test of all the above products.
For starters, the Karnataka state needs to have a long-term semiconductor policy in place, running 20-25 years or so. This cannot be a short-term plan! It would be prudent to have the top Indian leaders from Indian firms and MNCs, e.g., Ittiam, MindTree, Synopsys, Cadence, TI, Analog Devices, as well as the Indian Institute of Science and some other leading technology institutes, be the part of a core state semiconductor policy team to oversee the implementations. Future state governments would only need to update the status and keep it rolling forward.
Incentives need to be built in as well, including more tax holidays, etc. Whether it needs to be 25-30 percent or higher, is to be debated. Next, the focus of a semicon policy should be aimed at solving some particular local problem, which can go on to solve a much bigger national problem.
All of this should be done with, keeping in view to improving the infrastructure in the state, such as roads, water, electricity, etc. Foreign investors would shy away if infrastructure issues were not tackled first.
In this context, the Karnataka government should first look at having some solar/PV fabs in the state, as well as those in the nanotech space. Next, it would be prudent to pursue a policy of attracting companies in the verification and testing domains. Rather, have companies in the ATMP space, a pointer, which has been coming up in most of the discussions.
As an example, last year, an Israeli company -- Nova Measuring Instruments -- was keen on entering India. Nova develops, produces, and markets advanced monitoring, measurement and process control systems for the semiconductor manufacturing industry. It should be pursued to start assembly and testing of products in the state.
Wafer IC fabs are going to be a tough act to follow. Unless a company can get the requisite funding for a 300mm fab, it is not advisable to follow that path. However, there is room for developing 200mm fabs, or even 150mm and 180mm fabs. These can be used to develop indigenous and simple applications. If such fabs are developed, those companies offering fab-related services can be attracted as well.
The Indian semicon policy statement speaks about having ecosystem units. It would be advisable to attract smaller companies and look at setting up manufacturing units. As an example, Synopsys's Subhash Bal had once pointed out how RFID can be used in a host of applications. That's not all. Why not pursue companies in the OLEDs/LEDs and PDPs spaces as well, besides those manufacturing LCDs, even if smaller-sized.
Finally, consider attracting and promoting companies in the fabless space, as it looks to be the way ahead for the semiconductor industry.
Here is a 10-point program for the Karnataka government to consider as a likely semiconductor policy.
1. A long-term semiconductor policy running 20-25 years or so.
2. Core team of top Indian leaders from Indian firms and MNCs, as well as technology institutes in Karnataka to oversee policy implementation.
3. Incentives such as government support, including stake in investments, and tax holidays.
4. Strong infrastructure availability and management.
5. Focus on having solar/PV fabs in the state.
6. Consider having 150/180/200mm fabs that tackle local problems via indigenous applications.
7. Develop companies in the assembly testing, verification and packaging (ATMP) space.
8. Attract companies in fields such as RFID, to address local problems and develop local applications.
9. Pursue companies in the PDP, OLED/LED space to set up manufacturing units.
10. Promote and set up more fabless units.
There should be some steps to create specific zones for setting up such units -- for fabs, fabless, ATMP, manufacturing, etc., all spread equally across the state.
On a personal note, I would be keen and willing to work with the Indian/Karnataka government, or the concerned parties, in formulating such a policy, should I am invited. Nothing would give me greater pleasure than seeing India, and Karnataka, shining in the semiconductor space.
Monday, June 23, 2008
Has the Indian silicon wafer fab story gone astray?
The recent news of the Hyderabad Fab City giants -- SemIndia Fab Pvt Ltd and Nano-Tech Silicon India Pvt Ltd -- being served notice by the local state government and to explain the reasons for their delay in setting up the Fab City in Shamshabad on the outskirts of Hyderabad, does not come as a surprise at all!
Setting up of a silicon wafer fab takes up a lot of time and money, and I am not sure how this bit is perceived by many. Also, the rate of return is not exactly immediate! Maybe, it is time for everyone to realize that semiconductor is a very different industry from any other, and there is a need to understand how it really functions! Besides, one needs to keep an eye on the global semiconductor industry and associate movements there with what kind of value would a fab in India bring to the world.
This May, I'd done a reality check on where the global semiconductor is placed. Several folks have contacted me since, pointing out my accuracy. While it is good to be spot on with the assessment of the global (and Indian) semiconductor industry, the assessments should serve as a warning for the global (and Indian) semiconductor industry -- that it is not going to be an easy ride ahead!
On the same note, I had earlier questioned whether this was the right timing for setting up fabs in India. Perhaps, there is a need to examine whether we started on the fab path a bit too late! If we are found to be wrong or hasty in our assessment, let us feel no anguish in accepting that! This is not the first time such a thing will happen in the semiconductor industry, nor will it be the last. Having said that, if a wafer fab or two do start functioning in India later in 2009 or beyond, that would be exemplary!
Let us hope that the Indian silicon wafer fab story does not go astray for the overall benefit of the Indian semiconductor industry. There is a need on part of the Indian semicon planners to integrate clear vision with careful planning.
Yes, several solar fabs are coming up globally, and investments in solar/PV are rising as well in India, but that was along expected lines.
It was also pointed out earlier that investments in photovoltaics (PV) had somewhat eased the pressure on capital equipment makers and spend. In fact, 2007 is now well documented as the year when the PV industry emerged as a key opportunity for the subsystems suppliers and provided a timely boost in sales for those actively addressing this market.
Perhaps, here lies an opportunity for India, and I'm repeating this to the extent of sounding boring!
Further, even though it has been quite a while since the Indian semicon policy was announced, some feel that India should continue to focus on design services and embedded -- its well known strengths, rather than go after something as mature as wafer fabs. We don't have to 'force ourselves to believe' that we are good at product development? We are not!
Yes, like most things, it can change, but that would need great effort on part of all industry stakeholders. The question is: are we ready to bring about that change?
Setting up of a silicon wafer fab takes up a lot of time and money, and I am not sure how this bit is perceived by many. Also, the rate of return is not exactly immediate! Maybe, it is time for everyone to realize that semiconductor is a very different industry from any other, and there is a need to understand how it really functions! Besides, one needs to keep an eye on the global semiconductor industry and associate movements there with what kind of value would a fab in India bring to the world.
This May, I'd done a reality check on where the global semiconductor is placed. Several folks have contacted me since, pointing out my accuracy. While it is good to be spot on with the assessment of the global (and Indian) semiconductor industry, the assessments should serve as a warning for the global (and Indian) semiconductor industry -- that it is not going to be an easy ride ahead!
On the same note, I had earlier questioned whether this was the right timing for setting up fabs in India. Perhaps, there is a need to examine whether we started on the fab path a bit too late! If we are found to be wrong or hasty in our assessment, let us feel no anguish in accepting that! This is not the first time such a thing will happen in the semiconductor industry, nor will it be the last. Having said that, if a wafer fab or two do start functioning in India later in 2009 or beyond, that would be exemplary!
Let us hope that the Indian silicon wafer fab story does not go astray for the overall benefit of the Indian semiconductor industry. There is a need on part of the Indian semicon planners to integrate clear vision with careful planning.
Yes, several solar fabs are coming up globally, and investments in solar/PV are rising as well in India, but that was along expected lines.
It was also pointed out earlier that investments in photovoltaics (PV) had somewhat eased the pressure on capital equipment makers and spend. In fact, 2007 is now well documented as the year when the PV industry emerged as a key opportunity for the subsystems suppliers and provided a timely boost in sales for those actively addressing this market.
Perhaps, here lies an opportunity for India, and I'm repeating this to the extent of sounding boring!
Further, even though it has been quite a while since the Indian semicon policy was announced, some feel that India should continue to focus on design services and embedded -- its well known strengths, rather than go after something as mature as wafer fabs. We don't have to 'force ourselves to believe' that we are good at product development? We are not!
Yes, like most things, it can change, but that would need great effort on part of all industry stakeholders. The question is: are we ready to bring about that change?
Saturday, May 24, 2008
Dubai -- an emerging silicon oasis
Don't be surprised if you wake up one day and read a headline that heralds the coming of age of Dubai as a silicon frontier! The government of Dubai has been efficiently and effectively taking the necessary steps required to make that happen. It has set up the Dubai Silicon Oasis Authority (DSOA) as the engine for propelling Dubai into the knowledge economy.H.H. Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum Ruler of Dubai, Vice President and Prime Minister of the UAE, Ruler of Dubai, said, "Our vision is to make Dubai Silicon Oasis one of the world's leading centers of advanced electronics innovation, design and development."
Economy and business destination
Dubai boasts of a robust economy, the GDP being $53.8B in 2007. The GDP has a very low dependency on oil, which was >5 percent in 2006, a fact not well known to many. While it has a small population of just 1.42 million, people from other nationalities -- a total of 185 -- comprise a whopping 1.2 million or so.
Dubai is now counted among the world's top financial centers, boasting of world-class infrastructure, state-of-the-art telecom, and already a home to 139 major Fortune 500 regional offices.
Dubai also boasts of the world's fastest growing airport, which is located near Deira. A new airport, with six parallel runways, is under construction near Jebel Ali. Dubai also hast two seaports, including the world's largest man made port in Jebel Ali.
The Dubai Metro project is also underway. If this is not enough to propel the city as a leading business destination, Dubai also has highly superior logistic facilities -- all major cargo services operate out of here., besides reliable power and utilities, and state-of-the-art IT and telecom infrastructure.
Some major international investments in the UAE region make very interesting reading. For instance, Abu Dhabi has an 8.1 percent stake in Advanced Micro Devices (AMD). Abu Dhabi also has 4.9 percent stake in Citigroup. Dubai Holdings has major investments in Daimler AG (2 percent), EADS (3.12 percent), and Tussauds Group (20 percent). The DIFX has a major stake in both NASDAQ and OMX.
The UAE itself is a regional powerhouse. UAE ranks #28, highest in the Arab world, compared to Israel #19 and Egypt #63. It is also the second largest MENA market for PCs -- 594K units vs. 684K for Saudi Arabia, as per IDC.
DSOA's value propositions
The DSOA was set up to create a universally recognized state-of-the-art technology oasis by facilitating and promoting technology-based industries, and R&D, within a fully integrated community. DSO is a technology-centric free zone. The Dubai Silicon Oasis is spread over 7.2sqkm. In fact, Dr. Jihad Kiwan, director, DSOA, pointed out that the DSOA was large enough to fit in eight wafer fabs!
The DSOA offers multiple value propositions. In terms of financial incentives, it offers full repatriation of capital and profit, 100 percent ownership, zero corporate tax for 49 years, which is renewable, and most importantly, zero income tax for 49 years, also renewable.
If this isn't enough, the DSOA offers lower cost operations for technology companies, besides subsidized staff accommodations for R&D engineers. Throw in stringent IP laws, direct investment and support the creation of the DSOA tenants' business ecosystem, and you have the complete package.
Technology hub
The DSO is fast becoming a hub for technology R&D activities in the region, and is also the home of regional HQ of major electronics companies. It currently has 119 tenants, as of early May 2008.
The entire ecosystem is being built within the DSOA. It is an emerging residential area, and will also be home to RIT Dubai, BITS Pilani Dubai, and GEMS Smart School. Add to this theme parks, golf clubs, seven-star hotels, etc. It is more of a fully 'integrated city" purpose built by the government of Dubai, where its residents can work, live, learn and play.
Silicon and other activities
A variety of activities are promoted at the DSOA. In the microelectronics domain, there are activities related to IC design, EDA tools, semiconductor manufacturing, semiconductor assembly & test, as well as photovoltaics (PV).
Other general activities, not covering the semiconductors, include IT and IT security, telecom equipment, electronic and computer hardware, software development and solutions, nanotechnology, consultancy and business development, logistics, as well as talent development and recruitment.
The DSOA also houses the German Business Park and the Rochester Institute of Technology (RIT), Dubai. It has also made alliances with Synopsys, the EDA powerhouse, the American University of Sharjah, UAE University, University of Sharjah, BITS Pilani Dubai and Khalifa University.
The key business benefits of aligning with the DSO include access to a regional pool of talent, zero tax policy, competitive operating costs, and access to a regional market of 2 billion people. It also offers diverse support for creating R&D centers of Excellence.
Dubai Circuit Design
The Dubai Circuit Design (DCD) is one of the tenants within the DSOA with a vision to be the regional leading force for chip design innovation. DCD aims to provide customers with predictable chip design services and create a collaborative environment for its skilled engineers, which fosters creativity and innovation, while empowering them with the DSOA's state-of-the-art computing infrastructure.
The DCD incidentally has an alliance with Synopsys. It allows the DCD to have easy access to cutting-edge EDA tools, IP, wide range of resources, as well as Design Sphere Access (state-of-the-art data center).
The 10-member chip design team at the DCD comprises various nationalities -– India, Morocco, Tunisia, Egypt -- has already taped out one 65nm design. The team itself comes from leading semiconductor companies, such as Intel, Texas Instruments, Qualcomm, Wipro and ST Microelectronics, with an average experience of eight to 10 years.
The design team is experienced in areas such as front-end design, back-end physical design, design flow methodology, design for testability (DFT), etc.
The DCD offers a variety of IC design services (RTL to GDSII), supporting all technology nodes -- 65nm and below. It also has strong expertise in designing complex, multi-million gate, low power and performance-critical designs. DCD can also undertake foundry interface on behalf of the customers.
It also offers consultancy -- on-site or from the design center. This includes areas such as complete DFT solution, physical design, timing/power signoff, physical verification, reliability verification and extraction, full-chip feasibility analysis and area reduction, IP integration, full-chip feasibility analysis and area reduction, etc.
The DCD design team has done an SMC (scalable metrics chip) implementation. This was done using TSMC's 65nm low power (LP) technology. The encryption/decryption engine has ~ 8 million gates with 70 memory macros.
Other details of the project include dual core voltage (1.2v/0.96v) and IOs at 3.3v, wire bond design with 172 pads, 3.5x3.5 mm2 die size, 333Mhz/100Mhz design speed, as well as DFT (scan, ATPG, memory BIST, JTAG test interface).
Friday, March 21, 2008
Will the solar bubble really burst in 2009?
Will this actually happen? Will the solar bubble burst in 2009 as supply exceeds demand? I don't know, but I came across this news and am pleased to share with you.
According to Lux Research, the overall solar industry revenues will grow to $70.9 billion in 2012, but oversupply and new technologies will squeeze today’s leaders! This has been reported in its new report titled "Solar State of the Market Q1 2008: The End of the Beginning."
As per Lux Research's study, the solar industry has been having a remarkable run, attracting the attention of all stakeholders. However, all of this activity has also led to the growth of a bubble, which will most likely burst some time soon.
Lux Research says that while growth will continue to be robust -- solar industry revenues will grow at a brisk 27 percent annual rate to reach $70.9 billion in 2012, up from $21.2 billion in 2007 -- the solar industry will look very different just two years from now!
"Government subsidies in countries like Japan, Germany, and Spain have helped make large-scale solar a reality, with annual installations reaching 3.43GW in 2007," said Lux Research Senior Analyst Ted Sullivan, the report’s lead author. "During this period, solar demand has consistently outpaced supply. But the market is now approaching a tipping point. We project that the supply of solar modules will exceed demand in 2009, leading to falling prices and a shake-out among companies that aren’t prepared to thrive in this new environment -– particularly crystalline silicon players that haven’t invested in new thin-film technologies."
Interesting comments! At the recently concluded ISA's Vision Summit, it was disclosed by Jairam Ramesh, union minister of state for Commerce, that the Indian government had received seven confirmed investments in the Hyderabad Fab city, with a total value of $7 billion for 10 years.
Five firms have been given principle approval with $1 billion investment. Proposals of three other firms -- Videocon, Moser Baer, and Hindustan Semicon Manufacturing Corporation (HSMC), have yet to be considered.
Reliance is said to have put forward a proposal for solar/PV manufacturing facility with an investment of $5 billion in Jamnanagar. This proposal is under consideration. The majority of firms proposed to set up in Fab city are mainly focused on solar/PV.
As I said in that blog, the last bit is the interesting part. If everyone focuses on solar/PV, who will focus on the other ancillaries required to complete the semicon ecosystem? What about the LCD, OLED plants, etc., that were mentioned in the semiconductor policy? Now, with the Lux Research report predicting a squeeze next year, these Indian companies investing in solar/PV fabs need to be careful about how they go about setting up their businesses.
The solar business will surely be a space worth watching over the coming years!
According to Lux Research, the overall solar industry revenues will grow to $70.9 billion in 2012, but oversupply and new technologies will squeeze today’s leaders! This has been reported in its new report titled "Solar State of the Market Q1 2008: The End of the Beginning."
As per Lux Research's study, the solar industry has been having a remarkable run, attracting the attention of all stakeholders. However, all of this activity has also led to the growth of a bubble, which will most likely burst some time soon.
Lux Research says that while growth will continue to be robust -- solar industry revenues will grow at a brisk 27 percent annual rate to reach $70.9 billion in 2012, up from $21.2 billion in 2007 -- the solar industry will look very different just two years from now!
"Government subsidies in countries like Japan, Germany, and Spain have helped make large-scale solar a reality, with annual installations reaching 3.43GW in 2007," said Lux Research Senior Analyst Ted Sullivan, the report’s lead author. "During this period, solar demand has consistently outpaced supply. But the market is now approaching a tipping point. We project that the supply of solar modules will exceed demand in 2009, leading to falling prices and a shake-out among companies that aren’t prepared to thrive in this new environment -– particularly crystalline silicon players that haven’t invested in new thin-film technologies."
Interesting comments! At the recently concluded ISA's Vision Summit, it was disclosed by Jairam Ramesh, union minister of state for Commerce, that the Indian government had received seven confirmed investments in the Hyderabad Fab city, with a total value of $7 billion for 10 years.
Five firms have been given principle approval with $1 billion investment. Proposals of three other firms -- Videocon, Moser Baer, and Hindustan Semicon Manufacturing Corporation (HSMC), have yet to be considered.
Reliance is said to have put forward a proposal for solar/PV manufacturing facility with an investment of $5 billion in Jamnanagar. This proposal is under consideration. The majority of firms proposed to set up in Fab city are mainly focused on solar/PV.
As I said in that blog, the last bit is the interesting part. If everyone focuses on solar/PV, who will focus on the other ancillaries required to complete the semicon ecosystem? What about the LCD, OLED plants, etc., that were mentioned in the semiconductor policy? Now, with the Lux Research report predicting a squeeze next year, these Indian companies investing in solar/PV fabs need to be careful about how they go about setting up their businesses.
The solar business will surely be a space worth watching over the coming years!
Tuesday, January 1, 2008
Can we expect exciting times in 2008?
Welcome 2008! May I wish all my readers a very happy and prosperous 2008. Another year's gone past. We have a habit of looking back to see at what happened and what could have been.
A lot has been written already about 2007 and what to expect in 2008. So let's just touch upon some of the events from 2007 and some expectations from 2008.
For India, 2007 was a great year for the semiconductor industry -- first, the Indian government announced the semiconductor policy, followed some months later by the fab policy. Both were tremendous firsts in India's science and technology, and not IT, history. Everyone hopes that the Indian semiconductor industry will take off this year. Eyes are focused on the embedded segment, what with the global semiconductor industry reportedly facing 'an embedded dilemma.'
An issue hitting the EDA industry is that, the cost of designing or developing the embededded software for an SoC actually passed the cost of desgining the SoC itself in 2007. The world needs to avoid this software crisis, and India is well placed to take full advantage and play a major role, given its strength in embedded.
In IT, it's been a mixed sort of a year for Apple, which hit big time with the iPhone, seemed not to make waves with either the Safari browser or the Leopard OS. Microsoft had the Vista OS, but then, Vista didn't exactly warm the hearts of users or those who wished to upgrade their OS, including yours truly. Maybe, 2008 would ring in better times for Vista.
While on browsers, Firefox has gained lot of ground. However, by the end of 2007 came the news that the Netscape Web browser -- which started it all -- would soon be confined to history.
Netscape Navigator was the world's first commercial Web browser and launch pad of the Internet boom. It will be taken off on February 1, 2008, after a 13-year run. Time Warner's AOL, its current owner, has reportedly decided to kill further development and technical support to focus on growing the company as an advertising business. The first version of Netscape had come out in late 1994.
In gaming, there are admirers of Wii, PS3 and Xbox 360, and will remain the same. Which one of these gaming consoles will reign supreme, eventually, is difficult to predict.
In consumer electronics, lines are surely blurring between portable media players (PMPs) and portable navigation devices. Also, it would be interesting to see how digital photo frames survive 2008. A reported tight supply, especially for seven-inch models, has led to some makers in Asia either postponing mass production or extending lead times. Surely, makers cannot add more entertainment functions in smaller screen models, to keep costs down.
In the security products market, IP cameras and video servers should have a better year, with more emphasis now on video surveillance. In fact, some friends have been querying me as well regarding their potential.
On components, we can hope to see more growth for solid polymer capacitors in 2008, and among PCBs some fabricators should start manufacturing high-density interconnect (HDI) PCBs this year.
In wireless, we should witness TD-SCDMA in operation prior to the Beijing Olympic Games. Backers would like to see TD-SCDMA succeed, given the effort Datang-Siemens has made on the technology, as also the Chinese government, which issued spectrum for TD-SCDMA nearly five years ago!
Let's all welcome 2008 and look forward to more exciting things happening.
A lot has been written already about 2007 and what to expect in 2008. So let's just touch upon some of the events from 2007 and some expectations from 2008.
For India, 2007 was a great year for the semiconductor industry -- first, the Indian government announced the semiconductor policy, followed some months later by the fab policy. Both were tremendous firsts in India's science and technology, and not IT, history. Everyone hopes that the Indian semiconductor industry will take off this year. Eyes are focused on the embedded segment, what with the global semiconductor industry reportedly facing 'an embedded dilemma.'
An issue hitting the EDA industry is that, the cost of designing or developing the embededded software for an SoC actually passed the cost of desgining the SoC itself in 2007. The world needs to avoid this software crisis, and India is well placed to take full advantage and play a major role, given its strength in embedded.
In IT, it's been a mixed sort of a year for Apple, which hit big time with the iPhone, seemed not to make waves with either the Safari browser or the Leopard OS. Microsoft had the Vista OS, but then, Vista didn't exactly warm the hearts of users or those who wished to upgrade their OS, including yours truly. Maybe, 2008 would ring in better times for Vista.
While on browsers, Firefox has gained lot of ground. However, by the end of 2007 came the news that the Netscape Web browser -- which started it all -- would soon be confined to history.
Netscape Navigator was the world's first commercial Web browser and launch pad of the Internet boom. It will be taken off on February 1, 2008, after a 13-year run. Time Warner's AOL, its current owner, has reportedly decided to kill further development and technical support to focus on growing the company as an advertising business. The first version of Netscape had come out in late 1994.
In gaming, there are admirers of Wii, PS3 and Xbox 360, and will remain the same. Which one of these gaming consoles will reign supreme, eventually, is difficult to predict.
In consumer electronics, lines are surely blurring between portable media players (PMPs) and portable navigation devices. Also, it would be interesting to see how digital photo frames survive 2008. A reported tight supply, especially for seven-inch models, has led to some makers in Asia either postponing mass production or extending lead times. Surely, makers cannot add more entertainment functions in smaller screen models, to keep costs down.
In the security products market, IP cameras and video servers should have a better year, with more emphasis now on video surveillance. In fact, some friends have been querying me as well regarding their potential.
On components, we can hope to see more growth for solid polymer capacitors in 2008, and among PCBs some fabricators should start manufacturing high-density interconnect (HDI) PCBs this year.
In wireless, we should witness TD-SCDMA in operation prior to the Beijing Olympic Games. Backers would like to see TD-SCDMA succeed, given the effort Datang-Siemens has made on the technology, as also the Chinese government, which issued spectrum for TD-SCDMA nearly five years ago!
Let's all welcome 2008 and look forward to more exciting things happening.
Friday, December 21, 2007
Top 10 tech trends likely to make waves in 2008
It is quite a task to predict what the New Year has in store for us. My friend Radhika Nallayam at CIOL and I, present you a list of technology trends likely to make waves in 2008.
1. Greening of IT
Data centers of today are witnessing very high power consumption and cooling requirements. Skyrocketing energy consumption surely poses a challenge to the environment. Besides this, the hazardous effect of e-waste is also a major environmental concern in today’s IT sector. (It is estimated that more than 800 million PCs will be replaced during 2007 and 2012)
As a result, the IT world has started realizing the need for ‘greening of IT’ to minimize the harmful effects of energy expulsion from IT operations and data centers. (Green Data Center report from Symantec Corp. states that nearly three-fourths of respondents of the survey stated they have interest in adopting a strategic green data center initiative).
The ‘green IT’ movement has already succeeded in creating environmental responsibility among major IT vendors across the globe.
2. Is 2008 going to be the year of Linux?
It’s been years since we started talking about the ‘year of Linux’. Finally, good news for open source buffs? Well, we really can’t predict that. But, there is a hope that the coming time could be a real turning point in the history of open source, making 2008 the year of Linux on desktop. Though Linux will not be a direct replacement for Windows, we are definitely going to see a major increase in the number of end-users adopting Linux.
PC giant Dell, at the beginning of this year, gave us a positive sign by introducing Linux computers. A number of other vendors are also betting high on Linux. Ubuntu has already received recognition among mobile users and server market. Linux Desktop, though gradually, is gaining momentum. At this point in time, we can only wait and watch the game!
3. Will Vista be the OS to own?
When Microsoft launched Vista, Gartner’s analysts suggested ignoring the new operating system until 2008 and not to rush into upgrading. So, it’s time for us to rethink. Lots of users are still waiting for the first service pack to arrive before upgrading from Windows XP. And, hopefully, SP1 is likely to arrive in the beginning of 2008.
Vista definitely offers some advanced security feature and more polished interface. But due to some concerns related to application compatibility and more hardware requirements, consumers, till now, were reluctant to switch to Vista.
However, some recent surveys show that a lot of companies are now willing to upgrade to Vista. Microsoft expects Vista to be accountable for 85 percent of operating system sales in fiscal 2008 compared with 15 percent for Windows XP. Majority of the consumers will, sooner or later, have to migrate to Vista. Well, that could be in 2008.
4. IPTV sees big surge in popularity
IPTV (Internet Protocol Television) is already in spotlight. It has opened up new possibilities for consumers, service providers and content providers. From a mere technology concept, IPTV has completed the first stage and has become a real service. In some countries, it is almost in the mass-market stage. IPTV is considered to be one of the most highly visible services to emerge as part of the development of next-generation networks (NGN).
There are many more questions to be answered pertaining to the business model, pricing, packaging and the technology itself. But, the coming year is definitely going to see more developments in the IPTV space.
One thing worth mentioning, which may prove to be crucial for IPTV to reach its market potential, is the devlopments of standards for IPTV. The International Telecommunication Union (ITU) recently announced the first set of global standards for IPTV. So, there are definitely some good news for us. And, no doubt , as long as the demand for high-quality personalized content exists among the consumers, IPTV will not struggle to reach new horizons.
5. Will 802.11n arrive?
The 802.11n, the latest in the set of WLAN standards, comes with truly high speeds i.e. 4-5 times faster than 802.11g and fifty times faster than .11b! It also offers better operating distance comparing to the current wireless networks. Wow! This is really something the enterprises would love to invest in.
There is no doubt that 802.11n is well positioned to redefine wireless networking. But, would the new standard finally arrive in 2008? Ratification of the new standards is been delayed for quite a long time now and the users are really keen to see the faster version of Wi-Fi, without any more delay.
However, experts predict that ratification won’t happen overnight and it’s going to take some more time. Though some Wi-Fi vendors( Cisco, Aruba, Trapeze) have already launched 802.11n products, technology installations may happen only in the middle of 2008.
6. Short-range wireless technologies that will create a buzz
Short-range wireless technology is not just about Bluetooth anymore. New entrants like High-speed Bluetooth, Wireless USB and ZigBee are getting traction too. Demand for high data transfer rates has increased over the years with the increase in video and audio content on portable devices like mobile phones, laptops as well as on multimedia projectors and television sets.
Though high-speed Bluetooth is in its primary stage of development, it is expected to be 100 times faster than the current technology. This next-generation Bluetooth will hopefully hit the market in 2008.
Wireless USB is targeting 1Gbps throughput. Vendors have already introduced wireless USB hubs, adapters and laptops in the market. However, wide adoption of the technology depends on how soon it is going to be embedded into digital cameras, camcoders, MP3 players etc.
ZigBee is the wireless connection used by sensors and control devices. It is expected to find traction in commercial building automation in 2008.
7. No end in sight for high-definition (HD) war
Is the war between Blu-ray and HD DVD high-definition video formats never ending? Well, there, definitely, is an end. But that may not be in 2008 Analysts in the industry predict that the high-definition war may last for another year and a few months. There is a strong market position for both the standards currently and this makes it difficult to predict the winner.
Meanwhile, there has been no improvement in the sales of both the technologies this year as consumers still feel both Blu-ray and HD DVD are expensive.
On the other hand, Toshiba recently introduced comparatively low priced HD DVD players. This initiative definitely poses a challenge for Blu-Ray companies. To cope with this, they will have to cut down the hardware prices of Blu-ray. If that happens, the war will continue for some more time.
8. Shift from magnetic to solid-state hard drives
At present, the market is dominated by magnetic hard drives. But the future seems to be of solid-state hard drives as magnetic hard drives have limited data transfer speed. Solid-state hard drives are based on flash memory and is much faster memory solution. They also have advantages such as low noise and low power consumption. High pricing is the primary hindering factor for solid-state hard drives to become mainstream.
Major players like Seagate are betting high on solid-state technology and have plans to offer it next year. Solid-state hard discs are likely to be more popular in the laptop market. If prices fall down, we can see a slow shift happening from magnetic to solid-state hard drives in 2008.
9. Is 2008 going to be a banner year for wireless?
We no more worry about the clutter of wires. Offices have gone wireless. Cities are going wireless. All portable devices have embedded wireless technologies. We are moving fast towards a ‘wire-free’ world. So, 2008, beyond doubt, is going to see much more technology developments.
Though the ‘wireless’ world won’t be a true reality so soon, the need for seamless mobility and freedom is surely going to drive more wireless technology advancements.
The upcoming 802.11n will redefine enterprise networking in the coming year. Fixed Mobile Convergence (FMC) will tie fixed and mobile networks to deliver enhanced user experience. 2008 is expected to be the year of Mobile WiMax as well. Above all these, 2008 will probably witness open access to all networks, which in turn will open up more opportunities.
10. The ‘iPhone mania’ to continue
iPhone rates as the most memorable new product for 2007. Yes, it literally shook the mobile phone world in 2007. Now, doubtlessly, companies would love to follow Apple’s path by introducing similar products. So, 2008 is certainly going to see mobile phones with more and more web services and multimedia functionalities integrated into it. So, 2008 could very well be a year of ‘iPhone-like’ products from Apple’s rivals.
1. Greening of IT
Data centers of today are witnessing very high power consumption and cooling requirements. Skyrocketing energy consumption surely poses a challenge to the environment. Besides this, the hazardous effect of e-waste is also a major environmental concern in today’s IT sector. (It is estimated that more than 800 million PCs will be replaced during 2007 and 2012)
As a result, the IT world has started realizing the need for ‘greening of IT’ to minimize the harmful effects of energy expulsion from IT operations and data centers. (Green Data Center report from Symantec Corp. states that nearly three-fourths of respondents of the survey stated they have interest in adopting a strategic green data center initiative).
The ‘green IT’ movement has already succeeded in creating environmental responsibility among major IT vendors across the globe.
2. Is 2008 going to be the year of Linux?
It’s been years since we started talking about the ‘year of Linux’. Finally, good news for open source buffs? Well, we really can’t predict that. But, there is a hope that the coming time could be a real turning point in the history of open source, making 2008 the year of Linux on desktop. Though Linux will not be a direct replacement for Windows, we are definitely going to see a major increase in the number of end-users adopting Linux.
PC giant Dell, at the beginning of this year, gave us a positive sign by introducing Linux computers. A number of other vendors are also betting high on Linux. Ubuntu has already received recognition among mobile users and server market. Linux Desktop, though gradually, is gaining momentum. At this point in time, we can only wait and watch the game!
3. Will Vista be the OS to own?
When Microsoft launched Vista, Gartner’s analysts suggested ignoring the new operating system until 2008 and not to rush into upgrading. So, it’s time for us to rethink. Lots of users are still waiting for the first service pack to arrive before upgrading from Windows XP. And, hopefully, SP1 is likely to arrive in the beginning of 2008.
Vista definitely offers some advanced security feature and more polished interface. But due to some concerns related to application compatibility and more hardware requirements, consumers, till now, were reluctant to switch to Vista.
However, some recent surveys show that a lot of companies are now willing to upgrade to Vista. Microsoft expects Vista to be accountable for 85 percent of operating system sales in fiscal 2008 compared with 15 percent for Windows XP. Majority of the consumers will, sooner or later, have to migrate to Vista. Well, that could be in 2008.
4. IPTV sees big surge in popularity
IPTV (Internet Protocol Television) is already in spotlight. It has opened up new possibilities for consumers, service providers and content providers. From a mere technology concept, IPTV has completed the first stage and has become a real service. In some countries, it is almost in the mass-market stage. IPTV is considered to be one of the most highly visible services to emerge as part of the development of next-generation networks (NGN).
There are many more questions to be answered pertaining to the business model, pricing, packaging and the technology itself. But, the coming year is definitely going to see more developments in the IPTV space.
One thing worth mentioning, which may prove to be crucial for IPTV to reach its market potential, is the devlopments of standards for IPTV. The International Telecommunication Union (ITU) recently announced the first set of global standards for IPTV. So, there are definitely some good news for us. And, no doubt , as long as the demand for high-quality personalized content exists among the consumers, IPTV will not struggle to reach new horizons.
5. Will 802.11n arrive?
The 802.11n, the latest in the set of WLAN standards, comes with truly high speeds i.e. 4-5 times faster than 802.11g and fifty times faster than .11b! It also offers better operating distance comparing to the current wireless networks. Wow! This is really something the enterprises would love to invest in.
There is no doubt that 802.11n is well positioned to redefine wireless networking. But, would the new standard finally arrive in 2008? Ratification of the new standards is been delayed for quite a long time now and the users are really keen to see the faster version of Wi-Fi, without any more delay.
However, experts predict that ratification won’t happen overnight and it’s going to take some more time. Though some Wi-Fi vendors( Cisco, Aruba, Trapeze) have already launched 802.11n products, technology installations may happen only in the middle of 2008.
6. Short-range wireless technologies that will create a buzz
Short-range wireless technology is not just about Bluetooth anymore. New entrants like High-speed Bluetooth, Wireless USB and ZigBee are getting traction too. Demand for high data transfer rates has increased over the years with the increase in video and audio content on portable devices like mobile phones, laptops as well as on multimedia projectors and television sets.
Though high-speed Bluetooth is in its primary stage of development, it is expected to be 100 times faster than the current technology. This next-generation Bluetooth will hopefully hit the market in 2008.
Wireless USB is targeting 1Gbps throughput. Vendors have already introduced wireless USB hubs, adapters and laptops in the market. However, wide adoption of the technology depends on how soon it is going to be embedded into digital cameras, camcoders, MP3 players etc.
ZigBee is the wireless connection used by sensors and control devices. It is expected to find traction in commercial building automation in 2008.
7. No end in sight for high-definition (HD) war
Is the war between Blu-ray and HD DVD high-definition video formats never ending? Well, there, definitely, is an end. But that may not be in 2008 Analysts in the industry predict that the high-definition war may last for another year and a few months. There is a strong market position for both the standards currently and this makes it difficult to predict the winner.
Meanwhile, there has been no improvement in the sales of both the technologies this year as consumers still feel both Blu-ray and HD DVD are expensive.
On the other hand, Toshiba recently introduced comparatively low priced HD DVD players. This initiative definitely poses a challenge for Blu-Ray companies. To cope with this, they will have to cut down the hardware prices of Blu-ray. If that happens, the war will continue for some more time.
8. Shift from magnetic to solid-state hard drives
At present, the market is dominated by magnetic hard drives. But the future seems to be of solid-state hard drives as magnetic hard drives have limited data transfer speed. Solid-state hard drives are based on flash memory and is much faster memory solution. They also have advantages such as low noise and low power consumption. High pricing is the primary hindering factor for solid-state hard drives to become mainstream.
As long as the demand for high-quality personalized content exists among the consumers, IPTV will not struggle to reach new horizons.
Major players like Seagate are betting high on solid-state technology and have plans to offer it next year. Solid-state hard discs are likely to be more popular in the laptop market. If prices fall down, we can see a slow shift happening from magnetic to solid-state hard drives in 2008.
9. Is 2008 going to be a banner year for wireless?
We no more worry about the clutter of wires. Offices have gone wireless. Cities are going wireless. All portable devices have embedded wireless technologies. We are moving fast towards a ‘wire-free’ world. So, 2008, beyond doubt, is going to see much more technology developments.
Though the ‘wireless’ world won’t be a true reality so soon, the need for seamless mobility and freedom is surely going to drive more wireless technology advancements.
The upcoming 802.11n will redefine enterprise networking in the coming year. Fixed Mobile Convergence (FMC) will tie fixed and mobile networks to deliver enhanced user experience. 2008 is expected to be the year of Mobile WiMax as well. Above all these, 2008 will probably witness open access to all networks, which in turn will open up more opportunities.
10. The ‘iPhone mania’ to continue
iPhone rates as the most memorable new product for 2007. Yes, it literally shook the mobile phone world in 2007. Now, doubtlessly, companies would love to follow Apple’s path by introducing similar products. So, 2008 is certainly going to see mobile phones with more and more web services and multimedia functionalities integrated into it. So, 2008 could very well be a year of ‘iPhone-like’ products from Apple’s rivals.
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