AUSTIN, USA: Building upon its expertise in providing market research within the flat panel display market for more than 13 years, DisplaySearch, the worldwide leader in display market research, today announced that it will roll out a new suite of reports to cover the rapidly growing solar and photovoltaics markets.
As the photovoltaics market takes off, it becomes increasingly important for the industry to have the tools they need the most to help businesses understand and capitalize on developments within this market.
DisplaySearch has been tracking the solar industry since 2006, covering photovoltaic (PV) solar cells in its newsletters and blogs, providing PV-related custom consulting, and presenting on solar at conferences.
The release of the first issue of the Quarterly PV Cell Capacity Database & Trends Report makes DisplaySearch’s proprietary solar cell capacity database and unique analysis available to clients around the world.
Using best-of-class research methodologies and a holistic supply chain approach proven in the display industry, DisplaySearch will expand its solar research offerings and support clients as they evaluate opportunities in the long-term solar growth industry.
“The photovoltaics market is poised for significant growth, with capacity forecast to grow at a CAGR of 49 percent from 2009 to 2013,” noted Paul Semenza, DisplaySearch Senior Vice President.
“We have covered solar as part of our display-related research for more than three years, and now that our FPD clients are expanding their business operations into solar, they’re demanding greater coverage in this market segment.
“We’ve built our reputation by demonstrating our expertise and quality in the FPD supply chain and look forward to expanding our reach into solar to further help our customers make smart business decisions by providing them with the data they need the most.”
Current market research on solar and photovoltaics often covers only certain regions and types of research. Based on its reliable methodologies, DisplaySearch’s planned reports will uniquely cover global data, and cover a breadth of data including market share and market forecasts, based on technology, equipment and capacity.
In addition, DisplaySearch will utilize the supply chain analysis developed for the flat panel display market, from equipment and raw materials to end-product shipments, to analyze supply-demand relationships…
Showing posts with label PV. Show all posts
Showing posts with label PV. Show all posts
Monday, August 10, 2009
Tuesday, June 30, 2009
SEMI PV Group commends Taiwan government on passage of Renewable Energy Act
TAIPEI, TAIWAN: The Taiwan PV Advisory Committee and SEMI PV Group commend the Taiwan Government on its swift passage of the Renewable Energy Act to increase the adoption of solar power in Taiwan.
With the goal of making Taiwan the world’s third-largest producer of solar cells by 2015, SEMI Taiwan and its members have strongly pushed for a greater role for PV in the region’s renewable energy plan to boost development of the island’s green energy industries.
“On June 12, the Renewable Energy Act was successfully passed, ushering Taiwan into a new era of alternative energy development and related applications,” said Yeh Hui-ching, director of the MOEA Bureau of Energy. “Under the law, the government will provide incentives such as equipment purchase subsidies and low-interest loans to increase renewable energy generating capacity in Taiwan to between 6.5 million kilowatts and 10 million kilowatts.”
”We are happy to see that the government has shown strong commitment in passing the Renewable Energy Act during the current legislative session. Since these policies could give the industry a boost, companies are more willing to increase investment, building domestic demand and allowing for greater expansion globally, which will create more jobs in the process,” said Tsao. “SEMI pledges to continue bridging the gap between the government and industry, by relaying industry perspectives to the government.”
SEMI Taiwan has been a longtime advocate of the proliferation of PV technologies, and through its PV Group initiative is deeply involved in supporting its members across the PV supply chain through the development of PV-industry standards; Environmental, Health and Safety initiatives; market statistics, and global expositions. Taiwan PV Advisory Committee members include the CEOs of AUO, Chi-mei, E-Ton, Motech, Neo Solar Power, and Nexpower, among others.
In addition, the SEMI Taiwan PV Committee jointly drafted the "Taiwan Solar Energy Public Policy White Paper," and Tsai Chin-Yao chairman of the SEMI Taiwan PV Committee and CEO of Auriasolar acted as spokesperson to present the seven following suggestions:
1. Make imported components exempt from the commodity tax, duties, and other relevant taxes.
2. Provide low-interest project financing through financial institutions.
3. Introduce national standard certification.
4. Raise the feed-in price to at least NT 8 dollars per kw/h.
5. Require that solar energy companies comprise 1/3 of the Price Regulation Committee.
6. Expand resources from foundations.
7. Make donations of PV industry products tax-deductible or tax-exempt.
“PV manufacturers in Taiwan expect the government to help grow the industry by offering a range of tax incentives on imported parts and materials and funding support,” said Tsai Chin-Yao. ”We need officials to pay serious attention to this opportunity, and we are happy to have gained additional support from other legislators and associations who have joined us to both support and accelerate this agenda.”
After the Act had been passed, he forcast that the enactment of the statute will spark investment of NT$30 billion in Taiwan's renewable energy sector within one year. The investment could create up to 10,000 jobs and generate NT$100 billion in revenues within one to two years, he added.
The currently-approved plan is backed by a five-year budget of NT$20 billion (US$597 million), which is specifically dedicated toward investment in the research and development of green energy technologies, and is expected to, in turn, generate NT$200 billion ($5.97 billion) in private investments for the industry.
In addition, it will also provide NT$25 billion ($746 million) to promote the installation of green energy or energy-saving equipment or systems, as was indicated by the Executive Yuan.
With the goal of making Taiwan the world’s third-largest producer of solar cells by 2015, SEMI Taiwan and its members have strongly pushed for a greater role for PV in the region’s renewable energy plan to boost development of the island’s green energy industries.
“On June 12, the Renewable Energy Act was successfully passed, ushering Taiwan into a new era of alternative energy development and related applications,” said Yeh Hui-ching, director of the MOEA Bureau of Energy. “Under the law, the government will provide incentives such as equipment purchase subsidies and low-interest loans to increase renewable energy generating capacity in Taiwan to between 6.5 million kilowatts and 10 million kilowatts.”
”We are happy to see that the government has shown strong commitment in passing the Renewable Energy Act during the current legislative session. Since these policies could give the industry a boost, companies are more willing to increase investment, building domestic demand and allowing for greater expansion globally, which will create more jobs in the process,” said Tsao. “SEMI pledges to continue bridging the gap between the government and industry, by relaying industry perspectives to the government.”
SEMI Taiwan has been a longtime advocate of the proliferation of PV technologies, and through its PV Group initiative is deeply involved in supporting its members across the PV supply chain through the development of PV-industry standards; Environmental, Health and Safety initiatives; market statistics, and global expositions. Taiwan PV Advisory Committee members include the CEOs of AUO, Chi-mei, E-Ton, Motech, Neo Solar Power, and Nexpower, among others.
In addition, the SEMI Taiwan PV Committee jointly drafted the "Taiwan Solar Energy Public Policy White Paper," and Tsai Chin-Yao chairman of the SEMI Taiwan PV Committee and CEO of Auriasolar acted as spokesperson to present the seven following suggestions:
1. Make imported components exempt from the commodity tax, duties, and other relevant taxes.
2. Provide low-interest project financing through financial institutions.
3. Introduce national standard certification.
4. Raise the feed-in price to at least NT 8 dollars per kw/h.
5. Require that solar energy companies comprise 1/3 of the Price Regulation Committee.
6. Expand resources from foundations.
7. Make donations of PV industry products tax-deductible or tax-exempt.
“PV manufacturers in Taiwan expect the government to help grow the industry by offering a range of tax incentives on imported parts and materials and funding support,” said Tsai Chin-Yao. ”We need officials to pay serious attention to this opportunity, and we are happy to have gained additional support from other legislators and associations who have joined us to both support and accelerate this agenda.”
After the Act had been passed, he forcast that the enactment of the statute will spark investment of NT$30 billion in Taiwan's renewable energy sector within one year. The investment could create up to 10,000 jobs and generate NT$100 billion in revenues within one to two years, he added.
The currently-approved plan is backed by a five-year budget of NT$20 billion (US$597 million), which is specifically dedicated toward investment in the research and development of green energy technologies, and is expected to, in turn, generate NT$200 billion ($5.97 billion) in private investments for the industry.
In addition, it will also provide NT$25 billion ($746 million) to promote the installation of green energy or energy-saving equipment or systems, as was indicated by the Executive Yuan.
Thursday, June 25, 2009
New Energy’s see-thru SolarWindow cells surpass thin-film and solar in artificial light
BURTONSVILLE, USA: New Energy Technologies Inc., a next-generation alternative and renewable energy developer, announced that new tests of the company’s ultra-small solar cells for use in its transparent SolarWindow have demonstrated substantially superior performance over current thin-film and solar photovoltaic technologies at generating electricity from artificial light -– an important advantage over conventional solar technologies which are limited by their capacity to function well where exposure to direct sunlight is available.
“One of the biggest issues with today’s solar products is their dependency on direct sunlight, which our cells have demonstrated the potential capacity to overcome,” explained Meetesh V. Patel, Esq., President and CEO of New Energy Technologies.
“We’re now actively working to coat these cells onto transparent glass in order to fabricate our SolarWindows, which generate electricity and have the potential to be installed virtually anywhere that either direct sunlight or artificial lighting such as fluorescent systems emit visible light. In contrast, today’s building-integrated solar and photovoltaic products are limited to installation on south-facing surfaces, as is the case with currently-available solar materials tested in these newest experiments.”
In a series of new experiments, researchers repeatedly tested New Energy’s ultra-small solar cells on a 1”x1” substrate against today’s popular solar materials for their capacity to produce electricity under varying artificial light conditions, mimicking the levels of light exposure in homes and commercial offices.
In every case, New Energy’s solar cells, the smallest reported organic solar cells of their kind in the world, exponentially outperformed all of the conventional materials tested.
Under normal office lighting conditions, without the benefit of outside natural light from windows, New Energy’s ultra-small solar cells produced:
* Almost two-fold greater output power density than monocrystalline silicon, an established commercial solar cell material;
* More than eight-fold greater output power density than copper-indium-selenide, known for its high optical absorption coefficients and versatile optical and electrical characteristics; and
* More than 10-fold greater output power density than flexible thin-film amorphous-silicon, a popular ‘second-generation’ solar thin-film material.
New Energy's solar cells generate electricity not only from the visible radiation found in sunlight but also by using the visible light found in artificial illumination, such as the fluorescent lighting typically installed in offices and commercial buildings. While the majority of today's solar cells can only be installed where direct sunlight is available, New Energy's cells could be installed close to any source of visible light.
New Energy’s SolarWindow technology makes use of an organic solar array, which has the same desirable electrical properties as silicon, yet has a considerably better capacity to ‘optically absorb’ photons from light to generate electricity and achieves transparency through the innovative use of conducting polymers. Each solar array is composed of a series of twenty ultra-small solar cells measuring less than ¼ the size of a grain of rice each.
The organic solar cells are fabricated using environmentally-friendly hydrogen-carbon based materials, and successfully produce electricity, as demonstrated in a peer-reviewed study in the Journal of Renewable and sustainable Energy of the American Institute of Physics.
Click here to view the study: http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/1.2998825
The superior optical absorption properties of New Energy’s ultra-small solar cells enables development of an ultra-thin film (only 1/1000th the thickness of a human hair, or 1/10th of a micrometer) that can be utilized to produce a transparent solar window. In photovoltaic applications such as see-thru windows, where transparency is a primary concern, today’s thin film solar cells simply cannot be utilized to produce a transparent solar window for application in homes, offices, and commercial buildings.
“One of the biggest issues with today’s solar products is their dependency on direct sunlight, which our cells have demonstrated the potential capacity to overcome,” explained Meetesh V. Patel, Esq., President and CEO of New Energy Technologies.
“We’re now actively working to coat these cells onto transparent glass in order to fabricate our SolarWindows, which generate electricity and have the potential to be installed virtually anywhere that either direct sunlight or artificial lighting such as fluorescent systems emit visible light. In contrast, today’s building-integrated solar and photovoltaic products are limited to installation on south-facing surfaces, as is the case with currently-available solar materials tested in these newest experiments.”
In a series of new experiments, researchers repeatedly tested New Energy’s ultra-small solar cells on a 1”x1” substrate against today’s popular solar materials for their capacity to produce electricity under varying artificial light conditions, mimicking the levels of light exposure in homes and commercial offices.
In every case, New Energy’s solar cells, the smallest reported organic solar cells of their kind in the world, exponentially outperformed all of the conventional materials tested.
Under normal office lighting conditions, without the benefit of outside natural light from windows, New Energy’s ultra-small solar cells produced:
* Almost two-fold greater output power density than monocrystalline silicon, an established commercial solar cell material;
* More than eight-fold greater output power density than copper-indium-selenide, known for its high optical absorption coefficients and versatile optical and electrical characteristics; and
* More than 10-fold greater output power density than flexible thin-film amorphous-silicon, a popular ‘second-generation’ solar thin-film material.
New Energy's solar cells generate electricity not only from the visible radiation found in sunlight but also by using the visible light found in artificial illumination, such as the fluorescent lighting typically installed in offices and commercial buildings. While the majority of today's solar cells can only be installed where direct sunlight is available, New Energy's cells could be installed close to any source of visible light.
New Energy’s SolarWindow technology makes use of an organic solar array, which has the same desirable electrical properties as silicon, yet has a considerably better capacity to ‘optically absorb’ photons from light to generate electricity and achieves transparency through the innovative use of conducting polymers. Each solar array is composed of a series of twenty ultra-small solar cells measuring less than ¼ the size of a grain of rice each.
The organic solar cells are fabricated using environmentally-friendly hydrogen-carbon based materials, and successfully produce electricity, as demonstrated in a peer-reviewed study in the Journal of Renewable and sustainable Energy of the American Institute of Physics.
Click here to view the study: http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/1.2998825
The superior optical absorption properties of New Energy’s ultra-small solar cells enables development of an ultra-thin film (only 1/1000th the thickness of a human hair, or 1/10th of a micrometer) that can be utilized to produce a transparent solar window. In photovoltaic applications such as see-thru windows, where transparency is a primary concern, today’s thin film solar cells simply cannot be utilized to produce a transparent solar window for application in homes, offices, and commercial buildings.
Tuesday, June 16, 2009
Yingli Green announces business developments in China
BAODING, CHINA: Yingli Green Energy Holding Co. Ltd, one of the world's leading vertically integrated photovoltaic product manufacturers, announced that it has signed an off-grid PV system sales agreement with the Shanxi subsidiary of China Mobile, and that it has been selected by Huawei Technologies Co. Ltd. to supply PV modules for its base stations.
Yingli Green Energy has signed an off-grid PV system sales agreement with the Shanxi subsidiary of China Mobile, China's largest mobile telecom operator, which expects to build a video monitoring system for forest fire prevention in Shanxi Province.
Under this agreement, Yingli will supply the video monitoring system with 269 off-grid PV system units, totaling 0.47 MW. The Shanxi Forestry Bureau and the Shanxi subsidiary of China Mobile will be joint constructors for the video monitoring system, which is expected to cover 11 cities and 113 counties in Shanxi Province.
Additionally, Yingli Green Energy has been selected by Huawei, a leader in providing next generation telecommunications network solutions for operators around the world, to supply PV modules for its base stations in the second half of 2009.
"We are very pleased to continue to enhance our business relationships with China Mobile and Huawei," commented Liansheng Miao, chairman and CEO of Yingli Green Energy. "As one of the first solar companies in China, we established business relationships with China Mobile in 2003 and with Huawei in 2004. These recent wins further demonstrate our solid position as a qualified PV module and system supplier in China. Driven by the launch of the new PV application incentive policy and the increased focus on environmental protection in China, we expect to benefit from a strong period of growth in the Chinese PV industry."
Miao continued: "The industry has experienced increased market demand for a variety of reasons, including the easing of the seasonality in Europe, considerable progress in clean energy incentive policy legislation in the United States and China, and a visible change of industry sentiment boosted by the successful Intersolar Conference hosted in Munich, Germany, last month."
"We have experienced a substantial increase in demand since the start of the year and expect to see at least a 70% increase in shipments in the second quarter over our shipments in the first quarter. In addition, our competitive cost structure, combined with lower prices of polysilicon in the spot market and under our long-term polysilicon supply contracts, gives us confidence in our ability to achieve the previously stated second quarter gross margin target, which is in the estimated range of 18% to 20%," Miao concluded.
Yingli Green Energy has signed an off-grid PV system sales agreement with the Shanxi subsidiary of China Mobile, China's largest mobile telecom operator, which expects to build a video monitoring system for forest fire prevention in Shanxi Province.
Under this agreement, Yingli will supply the video monitoring system with 269 off-grid PV system units, totaling 0.47 MW. The Shanxi Forestry Bureau and the Shanxi subsidiary of China Mobile will be joint constructors for the video monitoring system, which is expected to cover 11 cities and 113 counties in Shanxi Province.
Additionally, Yingli Green Energy has been selected by Huawei, a leader in providing next generation telecommunications network solutions for operators around the world, to supply PV modules for its base stations in the second half of 2009.
"We are very pleased to continue to enhance our business relationships with China Mobile and Huawei," commented Liansheng Miao, chairman and CEO of Yingli Green Energy. "As one of the first solar companies in China, we established business relationships with China Mobile in 2003 and with Huawei in 2004. These recent wins further demonstrate our solid position as a qualified PV module and system supplier in China. Driven by the launch of the new PV application incentive policy and the increased focus on environmental protection in China, we expect to benefit from a strong period of growth in the Chinese PV industry."
Miao continued: "The industry has experienced increased market demand for a variety of reasons, including the easing of the seasonality in Europe, considerable progress in clean energy incentive policy legislation in the United States and China, and a visible change of industry sentiment boosted by the successful Intersolar Conference hosted in Munich, Germany, last month."
"We have experienced a substantial increase in demand since the start of the year and expect to see at least a 70% increase in shipments in the second quarter over our shipments in the first quarter. In addition, our competitive cost structure, combined with lower prices of polysilicon in the spot market and under our long-term polysilicon supply contracts, gives us confidence in our ability to achieve the previously stated second quarter gross margin target, which is in the estimated range of 18% to 20%," Miao concluded.
Tuesday, June 9, 2009
PV market to contract in 2009
WELLINGBOROUGH, UK: According to IMS Research’s latest analysis, the global PV market is set to contract for the first time in 2009 in terms of new installations.
IMS Research’s ongoing analysis shows that although the PV market doubled in 2008 in MW terms, a contraction in shipments is anticipated in 2009. This will be caused by the sudden drop-off in demand from Spain, with its newly implemented 500MW cap.
This is likely to result in a shortfall of some 1.5-2GW in 2009. Although this will in part be counter-balanced by growth in Italy and Eastern Europe, the dramatic decline of the Spanish market will lead to an overall drop in worldwide shipments.
Research Analyst Sam Wilkinson commented: “Despite credit issues, most major PV markets look healthy and are showing promise of significant growth. However, even if their countries’ solar capacities grow at the high levels they saw in 2008, they cannot make up for the unprecedented contraction that the Spanish market will see this year.”
Wilkinson added, “Many analysts are now predicting a decline in PV module revenues this year; IMS Research, having analysed the likely performance of individual countries, believes that MW shipments will also be lower.”
In spite of this, underlying demand for PV remains very healthy; long term, double-digit annual growth rates can be expected.
The market is likely to see dramatic changes in the next few years, with the emergence of new technologies such as micro-inverters; and the development of new and attractive regional markets such as the US, which to date has made up a low proportion of the overall global market.
Difficulties in obtaining financing will restrain US market growth this year. However, in the medium term it is anticipated to become one of the largest markets for PV.
IMS Research’s ongoing analysis shows that although the PV market doubled in 2008 in MW terms, a contraction in shipments is anticipated in 2009. This will be caused by the sudden drop-off in demand from Spain, with its newly implemented 500MW cap.
This is likely to result in a shortfall of some 1.5-2GW in 2009. Although this will in part be counter-balanced by growth in Italy and Eastern Europe, the dramatic decline of the Spanish market will lead to an overall drop in worldwide shipments.
Research Analyst Sam Wilkinson commented: “Despite credit issues, most major PV markets look healthy and are showing promise of significant growth. However, even if their countries’ solar capacities grow at the high levels they saw in 2008, they cannot make up for the unprecedented contraction that the Spanish market will see this year.”
Wilkinson added, “Many analysts are now predicting a decline in PV module revenues this year; IMS Research, having analysed the likely performance of individual countries, believes that MW shipments will also be lower.”
In spite of this, underlying demand for PV remains very healthy; long term, double-digit annual growth rates can be expected.
The market is likely to see dramatic changes in the next few years, with the emergence of new technologies such as micro-inverters; and the development of new and attractive regional markets such as the US, which to date has made up a low proportion of the overall global market.
Difficulties in obtaining financing will restrain US market growth this year. However, in the medium term it is anticipated to become one of the largest markets for PV.
Saturday, May 23, 2009
Applied Solar announces restructuring
SAN DIEGO, USA: Applied Solar, Inc. announced that it had begun the process of restructuring its operations. On May 22, 2009, the Company entered into a definitive loan and security agreement with The Quercus Trust, pursuant to which the company borrowed $698,000 under a short-term loan that matures on June 15, 2009.
As a condition to the loan, the company is required to file for reorganization pursuant to Title 11 of the U.S. Bankruptcy Code within thirty days following the date of the loan. The company is currently engaged in discussions with potential financing sources, including The Quercus Trust, concerning the extension of debtor-in-possession or “DIP” financing to support the Company’s operations during its reorganization.
David Field, President and CEO of the company remarked: “Despite very promising macro and micro business trends affecting the company, including solid relationships with its business partners, the current state of the financial markets combined with a difficult and complicated capital structure have made it extremely challenging for the company to secure needed financing. We are hopeful that a restructuring will enable the company to emerge stronger and in a better position to capitalize on the anticipated future growth in the solar industry.”
At the present time, no binding commitment to provide DIP financing by The Quercus Trust or any other party has been received and there can be no guarantee that the company will obtain such financing.
As a condition to the loan, the company is required to file for reorganization pursuant to Title 11 of the U.S. Bankruptcy Code within thirty days following the date of the loan. The company is currently engaged in discussions with potential financing sources, including The Quercus Trust, concerning the extension of debtor-in-possession or “DIP” financing to support the Company’s operations during its reorganization.
David Field, President and CEO of the company remarked: “Despite very promising macro and micro business trends affecting the company, including solid relationships with its business partners, the current state of the financial markets combined with a difficult and complicated capital structure have made it extremely challenging for the company to secure needed financing. We are hopeful that a restructuring will enable the company to emerge stronger and in a better position to capitalize on the anticipated future growth in the solar industry.”
At the present time, no binding commitment to provide DIP financing by The Quercus Trust or any other party has been received and there can be no guarantee that the company will obtain such financing.
Monday, May 18, 2009
Rapid growth likely for chemicals and materials in PV solar cells/modules
BOSTON, USA: The market for advanced chemicals and materials used in PV solar cells and modules will decline in 2009 to $2.3 billion before resuming strong growth to approximately $15 billion by 2015, according to a new industry analysis report from Linx-AEI Consulting, a leading international consulting firm serving the photovoltaics and electronics industries.
The new report entitled Chemicals & Materials for Photovoltaic Cells and Modules, 2009, examines emerging materials requirements in solar cell and module production, and quantifies the global markets for these advanced chemicals and materials as follows:
PV Cell and Module Chemical and Material Demand
According to the new report, the driver of growth in the PV market will be the global end market demand for solar power, which is likely to grow from 5.7 GW to 36 GW over the same time period.
Combining unique perspectives on the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) as a function of module performance with geography-specific considerations such as local incentives and irradiance, Linx-AEI has developed long-term forecasts by cell type. As a result, this report includes detailed perspectives and insights into chemicals needs for individual cell and module types for crystalline silicon, amorphous silicon, tandem-junction, CdTe and CI(G)S cells and modules.
Chemicals & Materials for Photovoltaic Cells and Modules, 2009, outlines market opportunities available to chemicals and materials suppliers as a result of strong volume growth in addition to technology-driven opportunities to deliver progress towards lower cost.
However, Mark Thirsk of Linx-AEI cautions: "This industry is still driven by the need to achieve grid parity and its evolution is still strongly impacted by policy. Therefore, there is a critical need for all value chain participants to continually monitor and understand LCOE, technology development, existing investment and changes in policy. This need has been clearly illustrated with the current turmoil in the supply of polysilicon."
The new report entitled Chemicals & Materials for Photovoltaic Cells and Modules, 2009, examines emerging materials requirements in solar cell and module production, and quantifies the global markets for these advanced chemicals and materials as follows:
PV Cell and Module Chemical and Material Demand
According to the new report, the driver of growth in the PV market will be the global end market demand for solar power, which is likely to grow from 5.7 GW to 36 GW over the same time period.
Combining unique perspectives on the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) as a function of module performance with geography-specific considerations such as local incentives and irradiance, Linx-AEI has developed long-term forecasts by cell type. As a result, this report includes detailed perspectives and insights into chemicals needs for individual cell and module types for crystalline silicon, amorphous silicon, tandem-junction, CdTe and CI(G)S cells and modules.
Chemicals & Materials for Photovoltaic Cells and Modules, 2009, outlines market opportunities available to chemicals and materials suppliers as a result of strong volume growth in addition to technology-driven opportunities to deliver progress towards lower cost.
However, Mark Thirsk of Linx-AEI cautions: "This industry is still driven by the need to achieve grid parity and its evolution is still strongly impacted by policy. Therefore, there is a critical need for all value chain participants to continually monitor and understand LCOE, technology development, existing investment and changes in policy. This need has been clearly illustrated with the current turmoil in the supply of polysilicon."
Sunday, May 17, 2009
Solmetric to develop PV layout and estimation software tool
BUFFALO, USA, AMERICAN SOLAR ENERGY SOCIETY: National Semiconductor Corp. announced a partnership with Solmetric Corp., an innovative developer of test and measurement tools for solar installations. Solmetric has developed a software tool to estimate the energy production of solar arrays, including installations outfitted with National's SolarMagic power optimizers.
National's SolarMagic power optimizers enable solar panels to produce maximum energy regardless of whether other panels in the array are under-performing due to shade, debris, panel mismatch and aging. To help determine how much benefit an installation will gain by using SolarMagic power optimizers, PV installers and designers can capture site-specific shade information with Solmetric's SunEye, a handheld measurement instrument, then create a PV system design on the site with the new photovoltaic (PV) layout and estimation software.
The system uses data collected from real-world installation sites and enables a solar system designer to experiment with different array configurations, with and without SolarMagic power optimizers. Designers can compare different hardware and different roof layouts, and visualize shade over the array area.
The system estimates the resultant energy production, resulting in more confidence in a PV design in less time. Solmetric is offering a technology preview of the PV Simulator, which can be downloaded for a 30-day trial starting in late May 2009. The final release of the PV Simulator will be available to SolarMagic and Solmetric customers in August 2009.
National's SolarMagic power optimizers enable solar panels to produce maximum energy regardless of whether other panels in the array are under-performing due to shade, debris, panel mismatch and aging. To help determine how much benefit an installation will gain by using SolarMagic power optimizers, PV installers and designers can capture site-specific shade information with Solmetric's SunEye, a handheld measurement instrument, then create a PV system design on the site with the new photovoltaic (PV) layout and estimation software.
The system uses data collected from real-world installation sites and enables a solar system designer to experiment with different array configurations, with and without SolarMagic power optimizers. Designers can compare different hardware and different roof layouts, and visualize shade over the array area.
The system estimates the resultant energy production, resulting in more confidence in a PV design in less time. Solmetric is offering a technology preview of the PV Simulator, which can be downloaded for a 30-day trial starting in late May 2009. The final release of the PV Simulator will be available to SolarMagic and Solmetric customers in August 2009.
Friday, May 8, 2009
Sunfilm, Sontor merge to become one of the leading silicon-based thin film module makers
BITTERFELD-WOLFEN/GROSSROEHRSDORF, GERMANY: Sunfilm AG, Grossroehrsdorf, and Sontor GmbH, Bitterfeld-Wolfen, merge to become one of the world’s largest providers of tandem junction silicon based thin film modules. The new company will be named Sunfilm AG.
In an increasingly competitive global photovoltaic market, Sunfilm will have the necessary size and expertise to significantly profit from the growing segment of thin film solar. Q-Cells SE, Good Energies and NorSun AS will be the shareholders of the new Sunfilm and are firmly committed to supporting the company on its future growth path.
Leading manufacturer of silicon-based tandem junction thin film modules
With an installed capacity of approximately 85 megawatts peak (MWp) at the two current production sites in Bitterfeld-Wolfen and Grossroehrsdorf, plus an additional 60MWp of capacity under construction in Grossroehrsdorf, Sunfilm is already one of the world’s largest manufacturers of tandem junction silicon-based thin film modules.
“Thin film is one of the most significant growth areas within the photovoltaic industry. After the merger, the new Sunfilm will participate significantly in this growth and we will establish our company as both a driving force in the market and as a technology leader”, says Wolfgang Heinze, Chief Operating Officer and Chairman of the Executive Board of Sunfilm AG.
Economies of scale and synergies add to future growth
Sunfilm’s size and market position will enable the company to create a competitive advantage through economies of scale, despite facing an increasingly crowded market. In addition, Sunfilm can achieve a variety of cost savings, including those from synergies in purchasing and those from consolidation of overlapping segments.
The combined expertise in research and development forms an additional clear competitive advantage. As a result, Sunfilm can accelerate the further development of thin film technology and reduce production costs for solar energy in the midterm. “Sunfilm will take a top position in research and development and will significantly advance the technology of solar modules with an even higher performance”, according to Dr. Torsten Brammer, Chief Scientist and member of the Executive Board of the new Sunfilm.
Current shareholders continue to support new company
Q-Cells, the sole owner of Sontor, will hold 50 percent of the new Sunfilm shares. Q-Cells is a leader within the global photovoltaic industry and is the world’s largest producer of solar cells. “The new Sunfilm forms a central pillar in Q-Cells’ global strategy for thin film technologies”, says Dr. Florian Holzapfel, Board Member of Q-Cells, responsible for New Technologies. “This powerful merger will create even more growth momentum in this thin film sector.”
Good Energies, a leading global investor in renewable energy and energy efficiency industries, as well as NorSun AS, a Norwegian manufacturer of high performance monocrystalline silicon wafers, will also remain invested in Sunfilm and support the future growth of the new company. Good Energies will hold about 35 percent of the new company and about 15 percent will be owned by NorSun. “We believe the merger is the best way to capitalize on the enormous potential of tandem junction thin film technology and to establish a leading company in the market”, explains Dr. Sven Hansen, Chief Investment Officer of Good Energies and Chairman of the Supervisory Board of Sunfilm.
Strengthening of Germany as PV centre
The new Sunfilm AG will have production sites in Grossroehrsdorf and Bitterfeld-Wolfen, while the centre for research and development will be located in Bitterfeld-Wolfen. The new company now has approximately 400 employees, but additional jobs will be created in the midterm as the expansion in Grossroehrsdorf comes on-line. The merger of the two companies is expected to become legally effective by the end of May 2009, but is still subject to approval by the competent antitrust agencies.
In an increasingly competitive global photovoltaic market, Sunfilm will have the necessary size and expertise to significantly profit from the growing segment of thin film solar. Q-Cells SE, Good Energies and NorSun AS will be the shareholders of the new Sunfilm and are firmly committed to supporting the company on its future growth path.
Leading manufacturer of silicon-based tandem junction thin film modules
With an installed capacity of approximately 85 megawatts peak (MWp) at the two current production sites in Bitterfeld-Wolfen and Grossroehrsdorf, plus an additional 60MWp of capacity under construction in Grossroehrsdorf, Sunfilm is already one of the world’s largest manufacturers of tandem junction silicon-based thin film modules.
“Thin film is one of the most significant growth areas within the photovoltaic industry. After the merger, the new Sunfilm will participate significantly in this growth and we will establish our company as both a driving force in the market and as a technology leader”, says Wolfgang Heinze, Chief Operating Officer and Chairman of the Executive Board of Sunfilm AG.
Economies of scale and synergies add to future growth
Sunfilm’s size and market position will enable the company to create a competitive advantage through economies of scale, despite facing an increasingly crowded market. In addition, Sunfilm can achieve a variety of cost savings, including those from synergies in purchasing and those from consolidation of overlapping segments.
The combined expertise in research and development forms an additional clear competitive advantage. As a result, Sunfilm can accelerate the further development of thin film technology and reduce production costs for solar energy in the midterm. “Sunfilm will take a top position in research and development and will significantly advance the technology of solar modules with an even higher performance”, according to Dr. Torsten Brammer, Chief Scientist and member of the Executive Board of the new Sunfilm.
Current shareholders continue to support new company
Q-Cells, the sole owner of Sontor, will hold 50 percent of the new Sunfilm shares. Q-Cells is a leader within the global photovoltaic industry and is the world’s largest producer of solar cells. “The new Sunfilm forms a central pillar in Q-Cells’ global strategy for thin film technologies”, says Dr. Florian Holzapfel, Board Member of Q-Cells, responsible for New Technologies. “This powerful merger will create even more growth momentum in this thin film sector.”
Good Energies, a leading global investor in renewable energy and energy efficiency industries, as well as NorSun AS, a Norwegian manufacturer of high performance monocrystalline silicon wafers, will also remain invested in Sunfilm and support the future growth of the new company. Good Energies will hold about 35 percent of the new company and about 15 percent will be owned by NorSun. “We believe the merger is the best way to capitalize on the enormous potential of tandem junction thin film technology and to establish a leading company in the market”, explains Dr. Sven Hansen, Chief Investment Officer of Good Energies and Chairman of the Supervisory Board of Sunfilm.
Strengthening of Germany as PV centre
The new Sunfilm AG will have production sites in Grossroehrsdorf and Bitterfeld-Wolfen, while the centre for research and development will be located in Bitterfeld-Wolfen. The new company now has approximately 400 employees, but additional jobs will be created in the midterm as the expansion in Grossroehrsdorf comes on-line. The merger of the two companies is expected to become legally effective by the end of May 2009, but is still subject to approval by the competent antitrust agencies.
Thursday, May 7, 2009
China solar PV installed capacity likely to reach 10,000-20,000 MW by 2020
BEIJING, CHINA: (Xinhua via COMTEX) China's solar PV installed capacity will likely reach 10,000-20,000 megawatts by 2020 with the implementation of its solar photovoltaic (PV) roof plan and other supportive measures, China Securities Journal quoted Wang Zhongying, head of the Renewable Energy Development Center of the Energy Research Institute (ERI) as saying.
The predicted capacity is far higher than the government's original plan, which targets at 1,800 MW of solar PV installed capacity by 2020.
China has announced a plan to build the country's largest solar PV project in Dunhuang, Gansu, with a primary installed capacity set at 10 MW. Bidding for the project, enterprises have offered an average power price of 1.5 yuan/kwh.
Although the price is still far higher than the 0.6 yuan/kwh price of wind-generating electricity selling to grids and the 0.3 yuan/kwh price of on-grid thermal power, it can reflect the sharp decline in the solar PV costs, said Wang.
Calculated on the basis of current solar PV cost and on-grid thermal power price, Chinese government need give one yuan of subsidy to each kwh of electricity generated from solar power, Wang noted.
Wang also stated that Chinese government is likely to draw up more favorable measures to encourage investment in solar power project.
China announced a solar PV roof plan in March, promising to grant 20 yuan/watt-peak subsidy to solar PV projects whose single installed capacity exceeds 50 kWp.
Now, China-based solar PV product makers like SunTech Power Holdings Co., Ltd. (STP.NYSE), Solarfun Power Holdings Co., Ltd. (SOLF.Nasdaq) and China Technology Development Group Corporation (CTDC.Nasdaq), suffer significant losses due to foreign market shrinkage and a big number of provisions against price drops.
Source: Trading Markets
The predicted capacity is far higher than the government's original plan, which targets at 1,800 MW of solar PV installed capacity by 2020.
China has announced a plan to build the country's largest solar PV project in Dunhuang, Gansu, with a primary installed capacity set at 10 MW. Bidding for the project, enterprises have offered an average power price of 1.5 yuan/kwh.
Although the price is still far higher than the 0.6 yuan/kwh price of wind-generating electricity selling to grids and the 0.3 yuan/kwh price of on-grid thermal power, it can reflect the sharp decline in the solar PV costs, said Wang.
Calculated on the basis of current solar PV cost and on-grid thermal power price, Chinese government need give one yuan of subsidy to each kwh of electricity generated from solar power, Wang noted.
Wang also stated that Chinese government is likely to draw up more favorable measures to encourage investment in solar power project.
China announced a solar PV roof plan in March, promising to grant 20 yuan/watt-peak subsidy to solar PV projects whose single installed capacity exceeds 50 kWp.
Now, China-based solar PV product makers like SunTech Power Holdings Co., Ltd. (STP.NYSE), Solarfun Power Holdings Co., Ltd. (SOLF.Nasdaq) and China Technology Development Group Corporation (CTDC.Nasdaq), suffer significant losses due to foreign market shrinkage and a big number of provisions against price drops.
Source: Trading Markets
Saturday, April 25, 2009
Solar energy: A bright spot in renewables
MENLO PARK, USA: Solar energy is gaining market share, as interesting new technologies are being developed to drive this renewable energy source forward.
The oil price fluctuations and global warming concerns have sparked a concentrated interest in promoting solar energy applications. In fact, the outlook for the global solar energy market is projected to more than double to reach $70 billion by 2013.
SRI Consulting (SRIC) has published its new Materials and Technologies for Solar Energy report that details the solar materials and technologies used in 1st through 4th generation photovoltaic applications, including an overview of solar thermal.
Solar power, like so many new energy processes, makes demands of chemicals during equipment manufacturing or operations. The 1st and 2nd generation photovoltaic cells require different forms of silicon, rare transition metals and metalloid elements. As a result of increased silicon costs, the 3rd and 4th generation technologies are focusing on organic polymers or nanomaterials and the lower manufacturing costs they offer.
Bob Davenport, Director of the Safe and Sustainable Chemicals series at SRIC said: "Developments in organic photovoltaic technology have made significant improvements in recent years, with cell efficiencies reaching over 5 percent. However, silicon based cells in the commercial photovoltaic industry are still the predominant technology because of higher efficiencies reaching over 25 percent."
The Materials and Technologies for Solar Energy report explores new applications where solar energy is being applied. Many opportunities exist for companies in the solar energy area from material research to manufacturing where breakthrough developments are being made at a surprising rate. The developments in organic manufacturing pose promising synergies with the printed electronics industry.
The number of specific technologies for producing photovoltaic solar cells is almost as numerous as the number of companies participating in the industry, especially with newer generation technologies. In addition, manufacturers are coming together and establishing standards. The Materials and Technologies for Solar Energy report includes information on key manufacturers and major technologies.
The oil price fluctuations and global warming concerns have sparked a concentrated interest in promoting solar energy applications. In fact, the outlook for the global solar energy market is projected to more than double to reach $70 billion by 2013.
SRI Consulting (SRIC) has published its new Materials and Technologies for Solar Energy report that details the solar materials and technologies used in 1st through 4th generation photovoltaic applications, including an overview of solar thermal.
Solar power, like so many new energy processes, makes demands of chemicals during equipment manufacturing or operations. The 1st and 2nd generation photovoltaic cells require different forms of silicon, rare transition metals and metalloid elements. As a result of increased silicon costs, the 3rd and 4th generation technologies are focusing on organic polymers or nanomaterials and the lower manufacturing costs they offer.
Bob Davenport, Director of the Safe and Sustainable Chemicals series at SRIC said: "Developments in organic photovoltaic technology have made significant improvements in recent years, with cell efficiencies reaching over 5 percent. However, silicon based cells in the commercial photovoltaic industry are still the predominant technology because of higher efficiencies reaching over 25 percent."
The Materials and Technologies for Solar Energy report explores new applications where solar energy is being applied. Many opportunities exist for companies in the solar energy area from material research to manufacturing where breakthrough developments are being made at a surprising rate. The developments in organic manufacturing pose promising synergies with the printed electronics industry.
The number of specific technologies for producing photovoltaic solar cells is almost as numerous as the number of companies participating in the industry, especially with newer generation technologies. In addition, manufacturers are coming together and establishing standards. The Materials and Technologies for Solar Energy report includes information on key manufacturers and major technologies.
Wednesday, April 22, 2009
First Solar, Juvi secure financing for 53MW PV power plant in Germany
TEMPE, USA: First Solar Inc. and Juwi Holding AG announced that they have secured financing for a 53 megawatt (MW) DC photovoltaic (PV) power plant near the German city of Cottbus.
More than 80 percent of the required project capital is financed through non-recourse debt from a consortium of banks. First Solar and Juwi intend to sell the majority of the project after its completion. Construction of the project began in January 2009, and the first 15MW have been completed. The remaining 38MW are scheduled to be completed by the end of 2009.
The project is being constructed on 162 hectares of land that is part of the Soviet Army's former 26,000 hectare Lieberose training area north of Cottbus in eastern Germany. The project's low cost enables the required return to fund an attractive land lease for the State of Brandenburg. The lease, in turn, finances the environmental cleanup of this former military zone, which is littered with tons of land mines, grenades and other munitions.
Matthias Platzeck, minister president of the German state government of Brandenburg, where Lieberose is located, said the project is a model for the conversion of former military land to productive use. "This kind of project helps us heal the scars of the Cold War and meet our ambitious targets for renewable energy production at the same time," he said.
"First Solar's mission is to enable a world powered by clean, affordable solar electricity," said Stephan Hansen, managing director, First Solar GmbH. "This project alone is expected to displace approximately 35,000 tons of C02 emissions a year. But we are particularly proud of this project because it adds an additional element to 'clean.' Not only will the project produce clean electricity, but it will also result in the removal of hazardous munitions from this project site."
Upon completion, the PV power plant will consist of approximately 700,000 modules and is projected to be the largest in Germany, producing enough power to provide for the annual electricity needs of more than 14,000 homes, and the second largest worldwide.
"The sheer size of the project helps us achieve economies of scale that are a significant factor in helping PV energy become competitive with fossil fuels and to be able to provide an increasing contribution to national renewable energy targets," said Hansen.
Brandenburg Economics Minister Ulrich Junghanns said the project underlines the state's credentials as an energy producer. "The Lieberose project will shine far and wide and help Brandenburg solidify its top billing as a center of solar power production," he said.
Matthias Willenbacher, Juwi chief executive, said, "Large projects like this one demonstrate that solar power is already capable of making significant contributions to addressing climate change." With this project, Juwi, using First Solar modules, has developed the three largest PV power plants in Germany.
More than 80 percent of the required project capital is financed through non-recourse debt from a consortium of banks. First Solar and Juwi intend to sell the majority of the project after its completion. Construction of the project began in January 2009, and the first 15MW have been completed. The remaining 38MW are scheduled to be completed by the end of 2009.
The project is being constructed on 162 hectares of land that is part of the Soviet Army's former 26,000 hectare Lieberose training area north of Cottbus in eastern Germany. The project's low cost enables the required return to fund an attractive land lease for the State of Brandenburg. The lease, in turn, finances the environmental cleanup of this former military zone, which is littered with tons of land mines, grenades and other munitions.
Matthias Platzeck, minister president of the German state government of Brandenburg, where Lieberose is located, said the project is a model for the conversion of former military land to productive use. "This kind of project helps us heal the scars of the Cold War and meet our ambitious targets for renewable energy production at the same time," he said.
"First Solar's mission is to enable a world powered by clean, affordable solar electricity," said Stephan Hansen, managing director, First Solar GmbH. "This project alone is expected to displace approximately 35,000 tons of C02 emissions a year. But we are particularly proud of this project because it adds an additional element to 'clean.' Not only will the project produce clean electricity, but it will also result in the removal of hazardous munitions from this project site."
Upon completion, the PV power plant will consist of approximately 700,000 modules and is projected to be the largest in Germany, producing enough power to provide for the annual electricity needs of more than 14,000 homes, and the second largest worldwide.
"The sheer size of the project helps us achieve economies of scale that are a significant factor in helping PV energy become competitive with fossil fuels and to be able to provide an increasing contribution to national renewable energy targets," said Hansen.
Brandenburg Economics Minister Ulrich Junghanns said the project underlines the state's credentials as an energy producer. "The Lieberose project will shine far and wide and help Brandenburg solidify its top billing as a center of solar power production," he said.
Matthias Willenbacher, Juwi chief executive, said, "Large projects like this one demonstrate that solar power is already capable of making significant contributions to addressing climate change." With this project, Juwi, using First Solar modules, has developed the three largest PV power plants in Germany.
Tuesday, April 21, 2009
Photovoltaics International's solar awards on May 28
Photovoltaics International, a leading source for technical manufacturing information and news concerning the solar industry, has partnered with the International Photovoltaic Equipment Association, PV Group, and Sun & Wind Energy among others to introduce the International Solar Technology Awards, a new set of industry awards recognizing significant achievements in the production of solar technology.
Nominations closed on April 15. Winners will be honored at the awards ceremony at Intersolar in Munich on May 28, 2009.
Unlike current industry awards that focus primarily on early stage solar technologies, the International Solar Technology Awards are designed to put the spotlight on companies spanning the manufacturing supply chain from raw materials to modules. Judges from Q-Cells, Suntech, Deutsche Solar, Moser Baer, Fraunhofer ISE and others will select award recipients on their efficiency advancements, improved design and processes.
The eight International Solar Technology Award categories are:
* Best Technical Product for Module Assembly.
* Best Technical Product for Thin-Film Module Manufacturing.
* Best Process Technology for c-Si Cell Manufacturing Lines.
* Best Technology for Silicon Feedstock and Wafer Processes.
* Best New Manufacturing Facility for Cells, Modules, Equipment and BOS Components.
* Best Region for Manufacturing Solar Technologies.
* Green Manufacturing Award.
* Industry Choice Award.
“We created the International Solar Technology Awards to serve as a catalyst for new business opportunities through enhanced industry visibility,” said David Owen, Managing Director of Photovoltaics International. “By bringing together some of the most prestigious names in the solar space, we strive to provide the solar manufacturing industry with an unbiased, well respected recognition to showcase industry leaders.”
To apply for The International Solar Technology Awards and to learn more on award criteria and benefits, visit: http://www.cellaward.com/.
If you are a member of the solar industry and would like to register to vote for The International Solar Technology Awards, visit http://www.cellaward.com/register_to_vote.
Nominations closed on April 15. Winners will be honored at the awards ceremony at Intersolar in Munich on May 28, 2009.
Unlike current industry awards that focus primarily on early stage solar technologies, the International Solar Technology Awards are designed to put the spotlight on companies spanning the manufacturing supply chain from raw materials to modules. Judges from Q-Cells, Suntech, Deutsche Solar, Moser Baer, Fraunhofer ISE and others will select award recipients on their efficiency advancements, improved design and processes.
The eight International Solar Technology Award categories are:
* Best Technical Product for Module Assembly.
* Best Technical Product for Thin-Film Module Manufacturing.
* Best Process Technology for c-Si Cell Manufacturing Lines.
* Best Technology for Silicon Feedstock and Wafer Processes.
* Best New Manufacturing Facility for Cells, Modules, Equipment and BOS Components.
* Best Region for Manufacturing Solar Technologies.
* Green Manufacturing Award.
* Industry Choice Award.
“We created the International Solar Technology Awards to serve as a catalyst for new business opportunities through enhanced industry visibility,” said David Owen, Managing Director of Photovoltaics International. “By bringing together some of the most prestigious names in the solar space, we strive to provide the solar manufacturing industry with an unbiased, well respected recognition to showcase industry leaders.”
To apply for The International Solar Technology Awards and to learn more on award criteria and benefits, visit: http://www.cellaward.com/.
If you are a member of the solar industry and would like to register to vote for The International Solar Technology Awards, visit http://www.cellaward.com/register_to_vote.
Saturday, April 18, 2009
Will solar downturn lead to more mature PV industry?
The severe downturn in the global Photovoltaic (PV) market in 2009 actually could have a positive outcome for the worldwide solar industry, yielding a more mature and orderly supply chain when growth returns, according to iSuppli Corp.
Worldwide installations of PV systems will decline to 3.5 Gigawatts (GW) in 2009, down 32 percent from 5.2GW in 2008. With the average price per solar watt declining by 12 percent in 2009, global revenue generated by PV system installations will plunge by 40.2 percent to $18.2 billion, down from $30.5 billion in 2008.
The figures present iSuppli’s forecasts of global PV installations in terms of gigawatts and revenue.
Fig 1: Global Photovoltaic System Installation Forecast in Megawatts, 2008-2013
Source: iSuppli, April 2009
“For years, the PV industry enjoyed vigorous double-digit annual growth in the 40 percent range, spurring a wild-west mentality among market participants,” said Dr. Henning Wicht, senior director and principal analyst for iSuppli. “An ever-rising flood of market participants attempted to capitalize on this growth, all hoping to claim a 10 percent share of market revenue by throwing more production capacity into the market. This overproduction situation, along with a decline in demand, will lead to the sharp, unprecedented fall in PV industry revenue in 2009.”
However, the 2009 PV downturn, like the PC shakeout of the mid 1980s, is likely to change the current market paradigm, cutting down on industry excesses and leading to a more mature market in 2010 and beyond.
Fig 2: Global Revenues Generated by Photovoltaic Installations 2008-2013 in Millions of US Dollars
Source: iSuppli, April 2009
“The number of new suppliers entering and competing in the PV supply chain will decelerate and the rate of new capacity additions will slow, bringing a better balance between supply and demand in the future,” Wicht said.
Blame it on Spain
The single event most responsible for the 2009 PV market slowdown was a sharp decline in expected PV installations in Spain. Spain accounted for 50 percent of worldwide installations in 2008. An artificial demand surge had been created in Spain as the time approached when the country’s feed-in-tariff rate was set to drop and a new cap of 500 Megawatts (MW) loomed for projects qualifying for the above-market tariff. This set a well-defined deadline for growth in the Spanish market in 2009 and 2010.
While the Spanish situation is spurring a surge in excess inventory and falling prices for solar cells and systems, this will not stimulate sufficient demand to compensate for the lost sales in 2009. Even new and upgraded incentives for solar installations from nations including the United States and Japan—and attractive investment conditions in France, Italy, the Czech Republic, Greece and other countries—cannot compensate for the Spanish whiplash in 2009.
The Spanish impact will continue into 2010, restraining global revenue growth to 29.2 percent for the year. Beyond Spain, the PV market is being adversely impacted by the credit crunch.
“Power production investors and commercial entities are at least partially dependent upon debt financing,” Wicht noted. “Starting in the first quarter of 2009, many large and medium solar-installation projects went on hold as they awaited a thaw in bank credit flows.”
After the fall
After 2010, the fundamental drivers of PV demand will reassert themselves, bringing a 57.8 percent increase in revenue in 2011 and similar growth rates in 2012 and 2013.
“PV remains attractive because it continues to demonstrate a favorable Return on Investment (RoI),” Wicht said. “Furthermore, government incentives in the form of above-market feed-in-tariffs and tax breaks will remain in place, making the RoI equations viable through 2012. Cost reductions will lead to attractive RoI and payback periods even without governmental help after 2012.”
Furthermore, lower system prices will open up new markets by lowering incentives and subvention costs. The lower the PV system prices are, the lower the incentives will have to be. Developing regions will be big the beneficiaries of these lower prices and thus will grow faster than the global average, Wicht said.
Source: iSuppli, USA
Worldwide installations of PV systems will decline to 3.5 Gigawatts (GW) in 2009, down 32 percent from 5.2GW in 2008. With the average price per solar watt declining by 12 percent in 2009, global revenue generated by PV system installations will plunge by 40.2 percent to $18.2 billion, down from $30.5 billion in 2008.
The figures present iSuppli’s forecasts of global PV installations in terms of gigawatts and revenue.
Fig 1: Global Photovoltaic System Installation Forecast in Megawatts, 2008-2013
Source: iSuppli, April 2009“For years, the PV industry enjoyed vigorous double-digit annual growth in the 40 percent range, spurring a wild-west mentality among market participants,” said Dr. Henning Wicht, senior director and principal analyst for iSuppli. “An ever-rising flood of market participants attempted to capitalize on this growth, all hoping to claim a 10 percent share of market revenue by throwing more production capacity into the market. This overproduction situation, along with a decline in demand, will lead to the sharp, unprecedented fall in PV industry revenue in 2009.”
However, the 2009 PV downturn, like the PC shakeout of the mid 1980s, is likely to change the current market paradigm, cutting down on industry excesses and leading to a more mature market in 2010 and beyond.
Fig 2: Global Revenues Generated by Photovoltaic Installations 2008-2013 in Millions of US Dollars
Source: iSuppli, April 2009“The number of new suppliers entering and competing in the PV supply chain will decelerate and the rate of new capacity additions will slow, bringing a better balance between supply and demand in the future,” Wicht said.
Blame it on Spain
The single event most responsible for the 2009 PV market slowdown was a sharp decline in expected PV installations in Spain. Spain accounted for 50 percent of worldwide installations in 2008. An artificial demand surge had been created in Spain as the time approached when the country’s feed-in-tariff rate was set to drop and a new cap of 500 Megawatts (MW) loomed for projects qualifying for the above-market tariff. This set a well-defined deadline for growth in the Spanish market in 2009 and 2010.
While the Spanish situation is spurring a surge in excess inventory and falling prices for solar cells and systems, this will not stimulate sufficient demand to compensate for the lost sales in 2009. Even new and upgraded incentives for solar installations from nations including the United States and Japan—and attractive investment conditions in France, Italy, the Czech Republic, Greece and other countries—cannot compensate for the Spanish whiplash in 2009.
The Spanish impact will continue into 2010, restraining global revenue growth to 29.2 percent for the year. Beyond Spain, the PV market is being adversely impacted by the credit crunch.
“Power production investors and commercial entities are at least partially dependent upon debt financing,” Wicht noted. “Starting in the first quarter of 2009, many large and medium solar-installation projects went on hold as they awaited a thaw in bank credit flows.”
After the fall
After 2010, the fundamental drivers of PV demand will reassert themselves, bringing a 57.8 percent increase in revenue in 2011 and similar growth rates in 2012 and 2013.
“PV remains attractive because it continues to demonstrate a favorable Return on Investment (RoI),” Wicht said. “Furthermore, government incentives in the form of above-market feed-in-tariffs and tax breaks will remain in place, making the RoI equations viable through 2012. Cost reductions will lead to attractive RoI and payback periods even without governmental help after 2012.”
Furthermore, lower system prices will open up new markets by lowering incentives and subvention costs. The lower the PV system prices are, the lower the incentives will have to be. Developing regions will be big the beneficiaries of these lower prices and thus will grow faster than the global average, Wicht said.
Source: iSuppli, USA
Friday, April 10, 2009
Opportunities in India's solar/PV landscape: SEMI India
Solar/photovoltaics (PV) holds tremendous potential and promise for India, a fact not hidden from anyone. To further highlight its importance, SEMI India unveiled its first paper on Solar PV in India yesterday afternoon.
More action from Indian government needed
The meet called for more action from the government of India, a more closer industry-government collaboration, as well as the need for financial institutions to pay more attention to the solar/PV segment in India.
The photo here shows from left to right: Dr. Madhusudan V. Atre, President, Applied Materials India; Dr. J. Gururaja, Renewable Energy Action Forum & Executive President, SEMI India; K. Subramanya, CEO, Tata BP Solar; and Sathya Prasad, president, SEMI India.
Touching on the rationale for this SEMI paper on solar/PV's landscape in India, Dr. J. Gururaja, Renewable Energy Action Forum and Executive President, SEMI India, said it was meant to project the solar/PV industry's perspective: where we are and what needs to be done! This is a first account report and will be followed by many other such reports.
He said: "Solar in general, and PV in particular, can address the challenges that we face today. Solar/PV has a special attraction. It converts solar to electricity without involving any moving parts."
He added that although the industry has been looking at the potential, the markets have not been expanding as expected. "We need to see what can be done and achieved. This report is a stock-taking exercise," he pointed out.
Case for solar/PV in India
Sathya Prasad, president of SEMI India, touched upon the case for PV in India. These include:
* The existing power deficit situation in many parts of the country.
* India's brisk economic growth implies rising energy needs.
* Overdependence on coal for electricity generation -- limited coal reserves and CO2 emissions.
* Overdependence on oil and natural gas imports -- it accounts for 7 percent of GDP and consequent energy security concerns.
According to him, India is abundantly endowed with solar radiation. So far, so good!
Key PV opportunities for India
According to SEMI's paper, the key PV opportunities for India lie in off-grid applications and grid-connected PV. The off-grid applications include:
* Basic lighting and electrification of rural homes.
* Irrigation pump sets.
* Power back-up for cellular base station towers -- approximately, there will be 2.9 lakh base station towers by the end of 2009.
* Urban applications -- such as street lighting, etc.
The opportunities in grid-connected PV exist in:
* The current grid connected PV generation capacity is very small.
* Existing power deficit and huge projected future need.
* The cost point of PV has been declining continuously with technology improvements and scale.
Benefits of PV in India
The benefits of PV in India extend well beyond addressing energy needs. For instance, renewable energy technologies create more jobs than any fossil fuel based technologies. It also creates jobs across the value chain -- from R&D to manufacturing, installation and maintenance. Sathya Prasad highlighted MNRE's point that about 100,000 jobs could be created out of PV.
PV also has the capability of transforming lives. About 450 million Indians today manage with kerosene/other fuels for very basic lighting despite its significant health and safety risks. In this context, special mention needs to be made of the Aryavarta Grameen Bank's home electrification program.
Challenges for PV in India
Evidently, a bunch of opportunities are awaiting India in the solar/PV space. However, several challenges need to be overcome as well. These would be:
* Need for closer industry-government co-operation.
* Need for standards.
* Need for collaborative, goals driven R&D.
* Training and human resources development
* Need for financing infrastructure and models.
So, what are the recommendations of this paper on solar/PV landscape in India, and further call to action? These are:
* Need to evolve a common government-industry vision to make India a world leader in PV.
* Develop financing infrastructure and models that will motivate large-scale PV adoption and investments.
* Expand development of PV in off-grid applications.
* Accelerate grid-connected PV generation on a large scale.
Call for low carbon growth strategy
"Low carbon growth path is universal now. To make that happen, there needs to be a political will," advised K. Subramanya, CEO, Tata BP Solar, and chairman SEMI India PV Advisory Committee, while presenting his perspective on the solar/PV industry in India.
There has been little action on part of the government of India. "This needs to be implemented on the ground. We need policy and lifestyle innovation," he added. Subramanya cautioned that, "Too much of analysis will result in paralysis." According to him, separate budgets are required for a low carbon growth strategy. "Solar has tremendous potential. Even its learning curve is brilliant," Subramanya noted.
He added that if the European Union (EU) can make a low carbon journey so smoothly, then why not India? For instance, in Karnataka state alone, the demand is said to be 6700MW and a 10-11 percent peak shortage. We have 20-odd lakh Bhagya Jyoti and Kutir Jyoti units, and around 7,870-odd street lights. If a majority of these can be replaced by solar, it could lead to tremendous savings! This could be at least 57MW for a state like Karnataka. Apparently, all of this would require an investment of Rs. 52 crores and a payback time of two years.
"Why can't we develop a low-carbon growth path for every state in India? Imagine, what it can do for the other states," Subramanya highlighted. "If the power sector does not do well, it will hit the country's GDP!" Quite rightly so!!
Subramanya cited another example of solar water heaters in Karnataka. There are 32 lakh homes, of which about 5 lakh homes have solar water heaters. If more houses were to adopt these, it would result in a saving of 4,000MW of electricity! The Tata BP Solar CEO also called upon financial institutions to have a closer look at solar. Even the tariffs structure for solar/PV in India is not favorable enough.
He also touched upon US President Barack Obama's energy plan and the actions taken, since his comin to power, and drew a parallel with India's national action plan, which includes a solar mssion. This was released last June, but hardly any action has happened on the ground. So, there needs be changes on this front as well.
Four key aspects for solar/PV in India
Dr. Madhusudan V. Atre, president, Applied Materials India and vice chairman SEMI India PV Advisory Committee, highlighted four major aspects while presenting his perspective on the solar/PV industry. These are:
* See the advantage SEMI India brings to India. It can help bring costs down, due to the involvement of the PV Group.
* A point Dr. Atre had highlighted to me about a year back -- that solar/PV is a great way to trigger manufacturing in India. He said that the solar/PV ecosystem will be a very important step in setting up a semiconductor manufacturing ecosystem in the country.
* What wireless did to telecom -- perhaps, solar/PV has a similar aim! It can get rid of transmission lines and actually take power to the people!
* The Indian government-academia-industry would need to work hand-in-hand.
More action from Indian government needed
The meet called for more action from the government of India, a more closer industry-government collaboration, as well as the need for financial institutions to pay more attention to the solar/PV segment in India.
The photo here shows from left to right: Dr. Madhusudan V. Atre, President, Applied Materials India; Dr. J. Gururaja, Renewable Energy Action Forum & Executive President, SEMI India; K. Subramanya, CEO, Tata BP Solar; and Sathya Prasad, president, SEMI India.Touching on the rationale for this SEMI paper on solar/PV's landscape in India, Dr. J. Gururaja, Renewable Energy Action Forum and Executive President, SEMI India, said it was meant to project the solar/PV industry's perspective: where we are and what needs to be done! This is a first account report and will be followed by many other such reports.
He said: "Solar in general, and PV in particular, can address the challenges that we face today. Solar/PV has a special attraction. It converts solar to electricity without involving any moving parts."
He added that although the industry has been looking at the potential, the markets have not been expanding as expected. "We need to see what can be done and achieved. This report is a stock-taking exercise," he pointed out.
Case for solar/PV in India
Sathya Prasad, president of SEMI India, touched upon the case for PV in India. These include:
* The existing power deficit situation in many parts of the country.
* India's brisk economic growth implies rising energy needs.
* Overdependence on coal for electricity generation -- limited coal reserves and CO2 emissions.
* Overdependence on oil and natural gas imports -- it accounts for 7 percent of GDP and consequent energy security concerns.
According to him, India is abundantly endowed with solar radiation. So far, so good!
Key PV opportunities for India
According to SEMI's paper, the key PV opportunities for India lie in off-grid applications and grid-connected PV. The off-grid applications include:
* Basic lighting and electrification of rural homes.
* Irrigation pump sets.
* Power back-up for cellular base station towers -- approximately, there will be 2.9 lakh base station towers by the end of 2009.
* Urban applications -- such as street lighting, etc.
The opportunities in grid-connected PV exist in:
* The current grid connected PV generation capacity is very small.
* Existing power deficit and huge projected future need.
* The cost point of PV has been declining continuously with technology improvements and scale.
Benefits of PV in India
The benefits of PV in India extend well beyond addressing energy needs. For instance, renewable energy technologies create more jobs than any fossil fuel based technologies. It also creates jobs across the value chain -- from R&D to manufacturing, installation and maintenance. Sathya Prasad highlighted MNRE's point that about 100,000 jobs could be created out of PV.
PV also has the capability of transforming lives. About 450 million Indians today manage with kerosene/other fuels for very basic lighting despite its significant health and safety risks. In this context, special mention needs to be made of the Aryavarta Grameen Bank's home electrification program.
Challenges for PV in India
Evidently, a bunch of opportunities are awaiting India in the solar/PV space. However, several challenges need to be overcome as well. These would be:
* Need for closer industry-government co-operation.
* Need for standards.
* Need for collaborative, goals driven R&D.
* Training and human resources development
* Need for financing infrastructure and models.
So, what are the recommendations of this paper on solar/PV landscape in India, and further call to action? These are:
* Need to evolve a common government-industry vision to make India a world leader in PV.
* Develop financing infrastructure and models that will motivate large-scale PV adoption and investments.
* Expand development of PV in off-grid applications.
* Accelerate grid-connected PV generation on a large scale.
Call for low carbon growth strategy
"Low carbon growth path is universal now. To make that happen, there needs to be a political will," advised K. Subramanya, CEO, Tata BP Solar, and chairman SEMI India PV Advisory Committee, while presenting his perspective on the solar/PV industry in India.
There has been little action on part of the government of India. "This needs to be implemented on the ground. We need policy and lifestyle innovation," he added. Subramanya cautioned that, "Too much of analysis will result in paralysis." According to him, separate budgets are required for a low carbon growth strategy. "Solar has tremendous potential. Even its learning curve is brilliant," Subramanya noted.
He added that if the European Union (EU) can make a low carbon journey so smoothly, then why not India? For instance, in Karnataka state alone, the demand is said to be 6700MW and a 10-11 percent peak shortage. We have 20-odd lakh Bhagya Jyoti and Kutir Jyoti units, and around 7,870-odd street lights. If a majority of these can be replaced by solar, it could lead to tremendous savings! This could be at least 57MW for a state like Karnataka. Apparently, all of this would require an investment of Rs. 52 crores and a payback time of two years.
"Why can't we develop a low-carbon growth path for every state in India? Imagine, what it can do for the other states," Subramanya highlighted. "If the power sector does not do well, it will hit the country's GDP!" Quite rightly so!!
Subramanya cited another example of solar water heaters in Karnataka. There are 32 lakh homes, of which about 5 lakh homes have solar water heaters. If more houses were to adopt these, it would result in a saving of 4,000MW of electricity! The Tata BP Solar CEO also called upon financial institutions to have a closer look at solar. Even the tariffs structure for solar/PV in India is not favorable enough.
He also touched upon US President Barack Obama's energy plan and the actions taken, since his comin to power, and drew a parallel with India's national action plan, which includes a solar mssion. This was released last June, but hardly any action has happened on the ground. So, there needs be changes on this front as well.
Four key aspects for solar/PV in India
Dr. Madhusudan V. Atre, president, Applied Materials India and vice chairman SEMI India PV Advisory Committee, highlighted four major aspects while presenting his perspective on the solar/PV industry. These are:
* See the advantage SEMI India brings to India. It can help bring costs down, due to the involvement of the PV Group.
* A point Dr. Atre had highlighted to me about a year back -- that solar/PV is a great way to trigger manufacturing in India. He said that the solar/PV ecosystem will be a very important step in setting up a semiconductor manufacturing ecosystem in the country.
* What wireless did to telecom -- perhaps, solar/PV has a similar aim! It can get rid of transmission lines and actually take power to the people!
* The Indian government-academia-industry would need to work hand-in-hand.
Friday, January 16, 2009
Dramatic price forecast to reshape PV industry: iSuppli
I was very fortunate to attend a webinar on solar PV a couple of days back, thanks to iSuppli, USA. The webinar looked at:
* Polysilicon -- what is going on in the market?
* Cells and modules -- where will the prices go?
Dr. Henning Wicht, senior director and principal analyst, iSuppli, made it clear that the intention was to show what's coming out of primary industry research.
He said: "We believe that solar is a fantastic market. It has been growing over the last four years by revenue. It will continue to grow! There are not many industries with a growth path like that! However, in last the 18 months, the supply has been disconnected from demand."
This is exactly the point iSuppli addressed in its webinar. Dr. Wicht was accompanied by Stefan de Haan, senior analyst, photovoltaics, iSuppli.
iSuppli's recent findings are:
* Severe supply chain imbalances exist at polysilicon/wafer and cell/module levels.
* Short term polysilicon and module prices will decrease significantly.
Polysilicon: What's going on with supply and pricing?
If you looked at the global solar PV industry, many plants are under construction, and there are huge capacity expansion plans. There has been a dramatic decrease in production. In 2008, iSuppli estimated total production of solar PV at 60,000 metric tons. In 2009, about 100,000 metric tons will be produced!
What are the reasons for this supply situation? In 2005-06, the high margins of this industry attracted several newcomers. The cycle time to ramp up a polysilicon plant is 24-36 months, and including another 12 months to get finance, it takes about four years.
He said: "The decisions taken in year 2005-06 are coming to the market now. This is also why we see the big ramp in 2009-10. This is also the reason why the industry will have big difficulties to react on a short term notice. The polysilicon industry is a big super tanker, which has difficulties to maneuver on short term."
Looking at the demand side of things, iSuppli showed a graph where the two curves -- polysilicon supply and polysilicon demand meet, or rather cross, in early 2010. From that point on, the supply line passes the demand line. "That means, from that time onward, we definitely see prices for polysilicon decreasing," he said.
What will happen in 2009?
The key point to note is that the ramping rates of polysilicon and solar cells are completely different! The ramping rate of polysilicon is much steeper, than on the cell side. Polysilicon is more than doubling, while the cell industry is growing at 34 percent.
According to Dr. Wicht, the gap between demand and supply is already shrinking fast in 2009, which will lead to a price decrease in 2009.
Coming to prices, the polysilicon market boasts two kinds of prices -- long term and spot market. According to Dr. Wicht, the long term prices are already decreasing from around $100/kg in 2008, and it is expected to be around $80/kg in 2009.
On the other hand, the spot market price peaked in 2008 at around $400/kg. Now, it has already dropped. It will continue to drop, far beyond today's long term contract price, which will then, from 2010 onward, make up another round of discussion. This is because companies might tend to get out of their long term contracts to secure their silicon on the spot!
Summarizing, he said that polysilicon production will increase heavily. Next, supply will pass demand from 2010 onward, and then the industry will enter the oversupply situation for the next three to four years. The polysilicon industry will also react. In fact, iSuppli anticipates a recent announcement from a solar PV company to expand production capacity would be the last for quite a while!
What about projects on the way? These projects have to come on to the market and many of those will! This is precisely the reason why the industry will see silicon passing solar cells in capacity over the next few years.
Stefan de Haan added that the output of the PV modules industry will grow. The total module prod will likely grow to 11GW this year and to 20GW in 2012. Thin film modules will continuously gain market share and it probably account for 1/3rd of the total market by 2012. Production of crystalline cells will run in parallel. It is likely to reach 9GW for 2009 and 18GW for 2012.
Commenting on the competitive landscape, he added that many new players would be entering production in 2009, especially in the thin film business. "However, the current leaders -- QCells, Suntech and First Solar -- will increase their edge over the competition in terms of absolute production volumes," he said.
In general, it is a good thing that the industry is growing and that all of this capacity is coming online. However, this raises the question: can demand can keep up with the supply?
According to iSuppli, in 2009, the installation market will be flattening. In the sense, iSuppli projects that 4.2GW will be installed this year, or about 10 percent growth. However, this growth is much smaller in comparison to the previous years. Some of the reasons for slower growth in 2009 include changes in sustained feed-in tariffs and the global economic slowdown.
Hann added, "In H2-2010, module demand will probably return to the previous growth rates, of more than 20 percent per year."
Combining demand and supply, there is a massive oversupply of modules that has already been building up since early 2008. Back in 2008, this did not impact on the module prices as there was short term heavy demand from countries like Germany and Spain, from project developers and installation companies, etc. So, this was not noticeable earlier. However, in 2009, the oversupply situation is quite serious!
As a consequence, many suppliers will not be able to react to this situation in the short term. They will still need to run their factories to try and generate some revenue and satisfy the industry. Many had bet on some strong demand coming from USA and also China.
This year, the module prices will decline. Consequently, the declining prices will also create some additional demand. However, for the next two years, this fundamental oversupply situation will not change.
How far will prices drop?
So, what are the message for 2009? First, crystalline module prices will drop to about $2.50 per watt, and second, cost is going to be the differentiating factor! This was a point emphasized strongly by the iSuppli analysts.
Further, how should companies manage this situation, where supply is disconnected by demand? According to Dr. Wicht, there is 11.1GW of module supply vs. 4.2GW of installations. "We do not see that the demand is elastic and that everything will be good after the end of 2009. The gap is too large between demand and supply, and will last till end of 2010."
Installation capacity will surely become a bottleneck. There will be falling prices for silicon, as well as solar cells and modules. Also, the demand is not that elastic enough to absorb all modules produced.
Therefore, given this situation, what are the options for success, rather, what are the ideas to re-orient the solar PV business?
The first option could be to shut down 50 percent of production till price recovers. However, this is not a realistic option. Another could be to put expansion plans on hold. Yet another option for producers would be to become the best in class in production cost, an option, which is excellent, but difficult!
Probably, the best option would be for makers to integrate downstream. This includes new demand simulation in established markets as well as developing new markets.
Dr. Wicht said: "Anticipating bottlenecks are key for solar. The next bottlenecks are the bureaucracy and installation capacity. The production capacity would not be influential. Production cost and downstream integration are key." He advised solar PV producers to monitor their PV market demand and supply situation regularly.
* Polysilicon -- what is going on in the market?
* Cells and modules -- where will the prices go?
Dr. Henning Wicht, senior director and principal analyst, iSuppli, made it clear that the intention was to show what's coming out of primary industry research. He said: "We believe that solar is a fantastic market. It has been growing over the last four years by revenue. It will continue to grow! There are not many industries with a growth path like that! However, in last the 18 months, the supply has been disconnected from demand."
This is exactly the point iSuppli addressed in its webinar. Dr. Wicht was accompanied by Stefan de Haan, senior analyst, photovoltaics, iSuppli.
iSuppli's recent findings are:
* Severe supply chain imbalances exist at polysilicon/wafer and cell/module levels.
* Short term polysilicon and module prices will decrease significantly.
Polysilicon: What's going on with supply and pricing?
If you looked at the global solar PV industry, many plants are under construction, and there are huge capacity expansion plans. There has been a dramatic decrease in production. In 2008, iSuppli estimated total production of solar PV at 60,000 metric tons. In 2009, about 100,000 metric tons will be produced!
What are the reasons for this supply situation? In 2005-06, the high margins of this industry attracted several newcomers. The cycle time to ramp up a polysilicon plant is 24-36 months, and including another 12 months to get finance, it takes about four years.
He said: "The decisions taken in year 2005-06 are coming to the market now. This is also why we see the big ramp in 2009-10. This is also the reason why the industry will have big difficulties to react on a short term notice. The polysilicon industry is a big super tanker, which has difficulties to maneuver on short term."
Looking at the demand side of things, iSuppli showed a graph where the two curves -- polysilicon supply and polysilicon demand meet, or rather cross, in early 2010. From that point on, the supply line passes the demand line. "That means, from that time onward, we definitely see prices for polysilicon decreasing," he said.
What will happen in 2009?
The key point to note is that the ramping rates of polysilicon and solar cells are completely different! The ramping rate of polysilicon is much steeper, than on the cell side. Polysilicon is more than doubling, while the cell industry is growing at 34 percent.
According to Dr. Wicht, the gap between demand and supply is already shrinking fast in 2009, which will lead to a price decrease in 2009.
Coming to prices, the polysilicon market boasts two kinds of prices -- long term and spot market. According to Dr. Wicht, the long term prices are already decreasing from around $100/kg in 2008, and it is expected to be around $80/kg in 2009.
On the other hand, the spot market price peaked in 2008 at around $400/kg. Now, it has already dropped. It will continue to drop, far beyond today's long term contract price, which will then, from 2010 onward, make up another round of discussion. This is because companies might tend to get out of their long term contracts to secure their silicon on the spot!
Summarizing, he said that polysilicon production will increase heavily. Next, supply will pass demand from 2010 onward, and then the industry will enter the oversupply situation for the next three to four years. The polysilicon industry will also react. In fact, iSuppli anticipates a recent announcement from a solar PV company to expand production capacity would be the last for quite a while!
What about projects on the way? These projects have to come on to the market and many of those will! This is precisely the reason why the industry will see silicon passing solar cells in capacity over the next few years.
Stefan de Haan added that the output of the PV modules industry will grow. The total module prod will likely grow to 11GW this year and to 20GW in 2012. Thin film modules will continuously gain market share and it probably account for 1/3rd of the total market by 2012. Production of crystalline cells will run in parallel. It is likely to reach 9GW for 2009 and 18GW for 2012.
Commenting on the competitive landscape, he added that many new players would be entering production in 2009, especially in the thin film business. "However, the current leaders -- QCells, Suntech and First Solar -- will increase their edge over the competition in terms of absolute production volumes," he said.
In general, it is a good thing that the industry is growing and that all of this capacity is coming online. However, this raises the question: can demand can keep up with the supply?
According to iSuppli, in 2009, the installation market will be flattening. In the sense, iSuppli projects that 4.2GW will be installed this year, or about 10 percent growth. However, this growth is much smaller in comparison to the previous years. Some of the reasons for slower growth in 2009 include changes in sustained feed-in tariffs and the global economic slowdown.
Hann added, "In H2-2010, module demand will probably return to the previous growth rates, of more than 20 percent per year."
Combining demand and supply, there is a massive oversupply of modules that has already been building up since early 2008. Back in 2008, this did not impact on the module prices as there was short term heavy demand from countries like Germany and Spain, from project developers and installation companies, etc. So, this was not noticeable earlier. However, in 2009, the oversupply situation is quite serious!
As a consequence, many suppliers will not be able to react to this situation in the short term. They will still need to run their factories to try and generate some revenue and satisfy the industry. Many had bet on some strong demand coming from USA and also China.
This year, the module prices will decline. Consequently, the declining prices will also create some additional demand. However, for the next two years, this fundamental oversupply situation will not change.
How far will prices drop?
So, what are the message for 2009? First, crystalline module prices will drop to about $2.50 per watt, and second, cost is going to be the differentiating factor! This was a point emphasized strongly by the iSuppli analysts.
Further, how should companies manage this situation, where supply is disconnected by demand? According to Dr. Wicht, there is 11.1GW of module supply vs. 4.2GW of installations. "We do not see that the demand is elastic and that everything will be good after the end of 2009. The gap is too large between demand and supply, and will last till end of 2010."
Installation capacity will surely become a bottleneck. There will be falling prices for silicon, as well as solar cells and modules. Also, the demand is not that elastic enough to absorb all modules produced.
Therefore, given this situation, what are the options for success, rather, what are the ideas to re-orient the solar PV business?
The first option could be to shut down 50 percent of production till price recovers. However, this is not a realistic option. Another could be to put expansion plans on hold. Yet another option for producers would be to become the best in class in production cost, an option, which is excellent, but difficult!
Probably, the best option would be for makers to integrate downstream. This includes new demand simulation in established markets as well as developing new markets.
Dr. Wicht said: "Anticipating bottlenecks are key for solar. The next bottlenecks are the bureaucracy and installation capacity. The production capacity would not be influential. Production cost and downstream integration are key." He advised solar PV producers to monitor their PV market demand and supply situation regularly.
Tuesday, October 14, 2008
Top 20 global solar photovoltaic companies
Alright folks! This has taken some time coming, but it is worth the wait! Presenting the Top 20 solar photovoltaic companies during Q1-2008. May I add here that I am extremely grateful to iSuppli's Jon Cassell for giving me this opportunity.
I was also fortunate enough to discuss this table with Dr. Henning Wicht, Senior Director, Principal Analyst, iSuppli Deutschland GmbH, in Munich, Germany.
Parameters for rankings
First up, what were the parameters used by iSuppli to determine the top 20? According to Dr. Wicht, the top 20 cell-companies have been ranked by production in 2007 and by announced production capacity 2010. He clarified, "Ranking by revenue is not applicable because many integrated manufactures publish compound revenues for cells, modules and systems."
Yes, there have been several announcements in the solar/PV space, in India, and globally, and some names could be missing here. However, the new cell manufacturing projects will be included as soon as they are announced.
Coming back to the topic, it is necessary to examine the role of subsidies. While photovoltaics have been getting cheaper, Dr. Wicht said that subsidies were still necessary to support the PV markets. "It shows that the time grid parity shortens faster than expected earlier. As an example, for Germany, the grid parity might be achieved in 2015, which is two years earlier than expected in 2007."
That is to say, the support programs are benefical, both to support markets to become independent sustainable and to develop the regional industry.
Global interest in solar/PV
Critically, there seems to have developed a sudden interest in solar/PV, starting late 2007, when this (solar) has been around for some time. How has this happened?
According to Dr. Wicht, raising CO2 levels generated through fossil energy, CO2 certificates, rising prices of fossil fuels, political dependency from oil exporting countries drove the Kyoto protocol to reduce CO2.
"Renewable energy is a major pillar to achieve that goal. European governments have been frontrunners to implement and execute that goal. That said, solar has been around for a while. Japan was the first significant market. However, on a global basis, it took off in Europe from 2005 onward," he noted.
With the spate of initiatives in solar/PV, can it not turn out to be a case of too many folks entering the same line?
Sure, over and undersupply happens along the supply chain! The iSuppli market research figures out imbalances, which drive prices/margins up and down.
Also, isn't there a chance of solar/PV getting commoditized, or has it already become one? Well, PV modules are a commodity product, said the analyst. The market is still in its infancy and it will continue to grow for the next 10 years and further. The overall saturation will come, but still some years to go.
Is solar helping semicon?
Some industry folks have been saying that the solar/PV initiatives are not really helping the overall semicon industry, a statement I agree with as well. Also, it may only be benefitting some of the equipment makers.
Dr. Wicht said: "Indeed, semicon fabs are not able to produce competitively solar cells and the solar need for semiconductor devices is rather low. The semiconductor companies, however diversify into PV, e.g., Qimonda with a new cell production. Intel is investing in several PV companies, LG is investing in Conergy, etc., or supplying devices for power conversion, e.g, National Semiconductor. However, the overall impact on the semicon devices market is rather low!
Solar, semicon on par?
iSuppli made a forecast some time back regarding investments in solar and semiconductors being on par by 2010.
The investments for solar cell production raising up to several hundreds of Mio USD, up to 1 Bio $ per production site. That is coming close to a semiconductor fab. The total capex of semiconductor is still 10 times larger than PV. However, PV is rising much faster.
I was also fortunate enough to discuss this table with Dr. Henning Wicht, Senior Director, Principal Analyst, iSuppli Deutschland GmbH, in Munich, Germany.
Parameters for rankingsFirst up, what were the parameters used by iSuppli to determine the top 20? According to Dr. Wicht, the top 20 cell-companies have been ranked by production in 2007 and by announced production capacity 2010. He clarified, "Ranking by revenue is not applicable because many integrated manufactures publish compound revenues for cells, modules and systems."
Yes, there have been several announcements in the solar/PV space, in India, and globally, and some names could be missing here. However, the new cell manufacturing projects will be included as soon as they are announced.
Coming back to the topic, it is necessary to examine the role of subsidies. While photovoltaics have been getting cheaper, Dr. Wicht said that subsidies were still necessary to support the PV markets. "It shows that the time grid parity shortens faster than expected earlier. As an example, for Germany, the grid parity might be achieved in 2015, which is two years earlier than expected in 2007."
That is to say, the support programs are benefical, both to support markets to become independent sustainable and to develop the regional industry.
Global interest in solar/PV
Critically, there seems to have developed a sudden interest in solar/PV, starting late 2007, when this (solar) has been around for some time. How has this happened?
According to Dr. Wicht, raising CO2 levels generated through fossil energy, CO2 certificates, rising prices of fossil fuels, political dependency from oil exporting countries drove the Kyoto protocol to reduce CO2.
"Renewable energy is a major pillar to achieve that goal. European governments have been frontrunners to implement and execute that goal. That said, solar has been around for a while. Japan was the first significant market. However, on a global basis, it took off in Europe from 2005 onward," he noted.
With the spate of initiatives in solar/PV, can it not turn out to be a case of too many folks entering the same line?
Sure, over and undersupply happens along the supply chain! The iSuppli market research figures out imbalances, which drive prices/margins up and down.
Also, isn't there a chance of solar/PV getting commoditized, or has it already become one? Well, PV modules are a commodity product, said the analyst. The market is still in its infancy and it will continue to grow for the next 10 years and further. The overall saturation will come, but still some years to go.
Is solar helping semicon?
Some industry folks have been saying that the solar/PV initiatives are not really helping the overall semicon industry, a statement I agree with as well. Also, it may only be benefitting some of the equipment makers.
Dr. Wicht said: "Indeed, semicon fabs are not able to produce competitively solar cells and the solar need for semiconductor devices is rather low. The semiconductor companies, however diversify into PV, e.g., Qimonda with a new cell production. Intel is investing in several PV companies, LG is investing in Conergy, etc., or supplying devices for power conversion, e.g, National Semiconductor. However, the overall impact on the semicon devices market is rather low!
Solar, semicon on par?
iSuppli made a forecast some time back regarding investments in solar and semiconductors being on par by 2010.
The investments for solar cell production raising up to several hundreds of Mio USD, up to 1 Bio $ per production site. That is coming close to a semiconductor fab. The total capex of semiconductor is still 10 times larger than PV. However, PV is rising much faster.
Monday, September 22, 2008
Building a good solar ecosystem in India
Solar/PV has been doing the rounds consistently, and has probably now become one of the most hyped sectors.
In fact, renewable energy has never ever had such a good time! As mentioned, a tremendous hype has already been built around solar photovoltaics. Several companies, in India, and elsewhere, have also jumped into the solar bandwagon.
So what are the reasons behind this 'sudden' interest in solar? According to Dr. Ashok Das, managing director, Solar Solutions, and a well know expert in this area, consumers do not yet drive the solar energy sector. Being energy, it is mostly driven by the government and its subsidies.
So, why has there been this 'sudden interest' in solar? There are two reasons.
First, the climate change issue started getting center stage at world forums, leading to policies and targets to cut global warming, and hence boosting renewable energy. Second, the soaring oil prices and continued dependence on a few countries for oil has led to the realization of the energy security.
There are several takeaways from the European experience with solar. Dr. Das says that Europe, particularly, has taken solar very seriously. They have been a leader in solar. "Germany, for instance, gave away all of the necessary subsidies to attain energy security. These subsidies have led to the solar boom. It has also led to an increased R&D to bring down the cost of solar energy."
Nevertheless, he adds there seems to be a bubble forming in this sector, like all other booms in the past. The industry will go through consolidation as the market matures.
And where does India stand in comparison? According to Dr. Das, steps are being taken to promote solar energy in India. "As of now, the feed-in tariff is Rs. 15 for photovoltaics and Rs. 12 for thermal solar. The government also announced a mandatory 5 percent renewable energy mix in the electricity production.
"The PMO (Prime Minister's Office) has also issued a National Action Plan that has plans for boosting solar. These subsidies are driving some of the increased activities in India."
He contends: "We need stronger lobbying so that better subsidies can come through. Therefore, most of the manufacturing activities in India are still driven by the export markets."
Surely, given the surge of investments in solar within India, there is every room for developing a very good ecosystem.
Dr. Das says: "Coming to the solar ecosystem, we already make solar products, as well as the modules. We also have the capability to make cells. The only part missing has been wafer, the silicon for solar.
"A few silicon factories should be coming up in India soon. So, India can easily establish the entire ecosystem for solar photovoltaics."
Postscript: More investments in solar today, in India. According to Hindu Business Line, there have been three additional investments worth Rs. 55,000 crores.
Vavasi Telegence to invest Rs 39,000 crore for solar PV and polysilicon unit; EPV Solar to invest Rs 4,000 crore for solar PV unit; and Lanco Solar to invest Rs 12,938-crore for solar PV and polysilicon unit.
A word of caution: It's advisable not to get carried away by all the success in solar. Solar is/was only part of the ecosystem units in the Indian semicon policy.
Don't forget semiconductors!
While this success in solar does augur well for the solar industry in India, don't think this is even close to what the Indian semicon policy, launched with fanfare last September, originally set out to achieve!
In fact, renewable energy has never ever had such a good time! As mentioned, a tremendous hype has already been built around solar photovoltaics. Several companies, in India, and elsewhere, have also jumped into the solar bandwagon.
So what are the reasons behind this 'sudden' interest in solar? According to Dr. Ashok Das, managing director, Solar Solutions, and a well know expert in this area, consumers do not yet drive the solar energy sector. Being energy, it is mostly driven by the government and its subsidies. So, why has there been this 'sudden interest' in solar? There are two reasons.
First, the climate change issue started getting center stage at world forums, leading to policies and targets to cut global warming, and hence boosting renewable energy. Second, the soaring oil prices and continued dependence on a few countries for oil has led to the realization of the energy security.
There are several takeaways from the European experience with solar. Dr. Das says that Europe, particularly, has taken solar very seriously. They have been a leader in solar. "Germany, for instance, gave away all of the necessary subsidies to attain energy security. These subsidies have led to the solar boom. It has also led to an increased R&D to bring down the cost of solar energy."
Nevertheless, he adds there seems to be a bubble forming in this sector, like all other booms in the past. The industry will go through consolidation as the market matures.
And where does India stand in comparison? According to Dr. Das, steps are being taken to promote solar energy in India. "As of now, the feed-in tariff is Rs. 15 for photovoltaics and Rs. 12 for thermal solar. The government also announced a mandatory 5 percent renewable energy mix in the electricity production.
"The PMO (Prime Minister's Office) has also issued a National Action Plan that has plans for boosting solar. These subsidies are driving some of the increased activities in India."
He contends: "We need stronger lobbying so that better subsidies can come through. Therefore, most of the manufacturing activities in India are still driven by the export markets."
Surely, given the surge of investments in solar within India, there is every room for developing a very good ecosystem.
Dr. Das says: "Coming to the solar ecosystem, we already make solar products, as well as the modules. We also have the capability to make cells. The only part missing has been wafer, the silicon for solar.
"A few silicon factories should be coming up in India soon. So, India can easily establish the entire ecosystem for solar photovoltaics."
Postscript: More investments in solar today, in India. According to Hindu Business Line, there have been three additional investments worth Rs. 55,000 crores.
Vavasi Telegence to invest Rs 39,000 crore for solar PV and polysilicon unit; EPV Solar to invest Rs 4,000 crore for solar PV unit; and Lanco Solar to invest Rs 12,938-crore for solar PV and polysilicon unit.
A word of caution: It's advisable not to get carried away by all the success in solar. Solar is/was only part of the ecosystem units in the Indian semicon policy.
Don't forget semiconductors!
While this success in solar does augur well for the solar industry in India, don't think this is even close to what the Indian semicon policy, launched with fanfare last September, originally set out to achieve!
Friday, September 12, 2008
Synopsys' Dr Chi-Foon Chan on India, low power design and solar
There have been reports about the troubles within the EDA industry in recent times, especially those related with quarter sales. Interestingly, Synopsys has been the one sailing along fine! If that's not enough, it made its intention known of playing a role on the solar/PV segment, an area where lot of investments have been happening!
Given this scenario, I was fortuitous enough, rather, extremely lucky to be able to get into a conversation with Dr. Chi-Foon Chan, President and Chief Operating Officer, Synopsys Inc., during his recent visit to India.
On the state of the global semiconductor industry, he said, it was somewhere now in the low 10s [well below 10 percent]. The EDA industry is currently tracking below that level. However, Synopsys has been growing at around 10 percent. He said, "The technology challenges today are very high."
Synopsys has a substantial number of R&D population based out of India. Giving his assessment of the Indian semiconductor industry, Dr. Chan added: "Our main interest in India is largely talent and the academia. India can very well get more into the product development side. Even the outsourcing of designs have increased. Our capabilities, of the Indian team, have also increased."
As with any good semiconductor ecosystem, the Indian industry also needs a proactive industry association, a role played to near perfection by the ISA (India Semiconductor Association). Acknowledging the ISA's role, Dr. Chan said, "The ISA has also formed a very cohesive team."
There is little doubt about India's growing importance in technology strengths and managerial leadership. Dr. Chan added: "We are more on the high-end side and also track what others design. In India, the profiles of designs are definitely high-end in nature. This is largely due to the presence of a large number of MNCs. A very high percentage of designs are in the 45nm and 65nm process technology nodes."
There is another significant indicator of India's growing importance, and that is the huge rise in the attendance of the SNUG. In 2000, this event attracted 180 people. However, in 2008, the SNUG attracted over 2,000 people.
Moving India to next level
Given the very high level of commitment on Synopsys' part toward India, there was a need to find out from Dr. Chan what exactly India needs to do to move to the next level in the value chain in the semiconductor ecosystem.
He advised: "India can do two to three things. One, for the system to grow, you need the government, academia and industry to grow together. India has all of the ingredients required to drive products."
Comparing India with China, he highlighted the fact that while in China, the local consumption was higher than local supply, that was not the case with India!
"Therefore, looking at merely the local market is not the only thing. Products developed here can also be targeted at the Middle East and Southeast Asia." He was quite forthright in his analysis, adding: "Industries start when you find markets. The skill sets are already present here. There can well be multiple startups."
Dr. Chan also touched upon the fab vs. fabless issue, noting that there could well be more of fabless companies in India. "Building a fab requires lot of capital. Also, consolidation will continue to happen."
What role does Dr. Chan see Synopsys playing in the Indian context? He said: "Synopsys will continue to be a catalyst for the industry. A healthy design industry in India continues to help us. We also work well with the Indian universities. Having more people from the universities will always help. We also invest a lot in application support. The application team also trains others. I now look forward to seeing more fabless companies here and India to become even more global."
On low power design
India is also a centre of expertise in low power design, given that low power is hugely important in today's electronics ecosystem. Dr. Chan commented that low power has always been the number one design issue. It cannot be taken care of at one single stage.
He added: "A slightly new concept that has emerged is low-power verification. There are so many schemes for attacking low power, such as multiple voltage islands. We (Synopsys) are spending a lot of effort in low power.
"As a designer, you require detailed analysis. Low-power verification is now coming up. Another area is testing. As an example, if so much power is required, how do you have the power cut from the tool you are using to test? From a Synopsys point of view, we are involved in several points, such as front-end synthesis, testing, sign-off, verification, etc. We are trying to put in a whole lot of methodologies."
Synopsys in solar
EDA may be able to help by lowering power requirements and leakage on better products. Especially, the Synopsys' TCAD product can be used to create more efficient and effective solar cells. Now, this is not a new development anymore. Synopsys, along with Magma, have already made known their intentions about setting foot in the solar/PV space.
On the TCAD, Dr. Chan said: "We have a very strong position in the TCAD, commercially. Now, it is one of our most critical elements in high-performance. Our TCAD is among the strongest in the EDA industry.
"In solar, it does not have to be a complicated place-and-route, etc. From an entire solar industry point of view, we have now used some effort from TCAD into this space. Heat transfer issues, etc., are more in the EDA space."
I will continue my conversation with Synopsys on its solar initiative sometime later. Keep watching this space, folks
Given this scenario, I was fortuitous enough, rather, extremely lucky to be able to get into a conversation with Dr. Chi-Foon Chan, President and Chief Operating Officer, Synopsys Inc., during his recent visit to India.On the state of the global semiconductor industry, he said, it was somewhere now in the low 10s [well below 10 percent]. The EDA industry is currently tracking below that level. However, Synopsys has been growing at around 10 percent. He said, "The technology challenges today are very high."
Synopsys has a substantial number of R&D population based out of India. Giving his assessment of the Indian semiconductor industry, Dr. Chan added: "Our main interest in India is largely talent and the academia. India can very well get more into the product development side. Even the outsourcing of designs have increased. Our capabilities, of the Indian team, have also increased."
As with any good semiconductor ecosystem, the Indian industry also needs a proactive industry association, a role played to near perfection by the ISA (India Semiconductor Association). Acknowledging the ISA's role, Dr. Chan said, "The ISA has also formed a very cohesive team."
There is little doubt about India's growing importance in technology strengths and managerial leadership. Dr. Chan added: "We are more on the high-end side and also track what others design. In India, the profiles of designs are definitely high-end in nature. This is largely due to the presence of a large number of MNCs. A very high percentage of designs are in the 45nm and 65nm process technology nodes."
There is another significant indicator of India's growing importance, and that is the huge rise in the attendance of the SNUG. In 2000, this event attracted 180 people. However, in 2008, the SNUG attracted over 2,000 people.
Moving India to next level
Given the very high level of commitment on Synopsys' part toward India, there was a need to find out from Dr. Chan what exactly India needs to do to move to the next level in the value chain in the semiconductor ecosystem.
He advised: "India can do two to three things. One, for the system to grow, you need the government, academia and industry to grow together. India has all of the ingredients required to drive products."
Comparing India with China, he highlighted the fact that while in China, the local consumption was higher than local supply, that was not the case with India!
"Therefore, looking at merely the local market is not the only thing. Products developed here can also be targeted at the Middle East and Southeast Asia." He was quite forthright in his analysis, adding: "Industries start when you find markets. The skill sets are already present here. There can well be multiple startups."
Dr. Chan also touched upon the fab vs. fabless issue, noting that there could well be more of fabless companies in India. "Building a fab requires lot of capital. Also, consolidation will continue to happen."
What role does Dr. Chan see Synopsys playing in the Indian context? He said: "Synopsys will continue to be a catalyst for the industry. A healthy design industry in India continues to help us. We also work well with the Indian universities. Having more people from the universities will always help. We also invest a lot in application support. The application team also trains others. I now look forward to seeing more fabless companies here and India to become even more global."
On low power design
India is also a centre of expertise in low power design, given that low power is hugely important in today's electronics ecosystem. Dr. Chan commented that low power has always been the number one design issue. It cannot be taken care of at one single stage.
He added: "A slightly new concept that has emerged is low-power verification. There are so many schemes for attacking low power, such as multiple voltage islands. We (Synopsys) are spending a lot of effort in low power.
"As a designer, you require detailed analysis. Low-power verification is now coming up. Another area is testing. As an example, if so much power is required, how do you have the power cut from the tool you are using to test? From a Synopsys point of view, we are involved in several points, such as front-end synthesis, testing, sign-off, verification, etc. We are trying to put in a whole lot of methodologies."
Synopsys in solar
EDA may be able to help by lowering power requirements and leakage on better products. Especially, the Synopsys' TCAD product can be used to create more efficient and effective solar cells. Now, this is not a new development anymore. Synopsys, along with Magma, have already made known their intentions about setting foot in the solar/PV space.
On the TCAD, Dr. Chan said: "We have a very strong position in the TCAD, commercially. Now, it is one of our most critical elements in high-performance. Our TCAD is among the strongest in the EDA industry.
"In solar, it does not have to be a complicated place-and-route, etc. From an entire solar industry point of view, we have now used some effort from TCAD into this space. Heat transfer issues, etc., are more in the EDA space."
I will continue my conversation with Synopsys on its solar initiative sometime later. Keep watching this space, folks
Thursday, September 11, 2008
Magma's YieldManager could make solar 'rock'!
Make no mistake, folks! The EDA guys are getting their act together to penetrate the solar/PV segment!! Magma's YieldManager is a great example of that effort! Yes, we all know the troubles of the EDA industry as well as of the key players. However, let's not ignore this initiative from Magma!
Recently, Magma Design Automation Inc. announced the development of a new yield enhancement software system, the YieldManager software system, which is customized for solar fabs to improve conversion efficiency, increase yield and reduce the manufacturing costs of solar cells.
Magma is collaborating with Pegasus Semiconductor-Solar to refine the product specifications and test the new product, based on Magma's YieldManager.
This is an interesting development, especially from the point of view of the solar/PV industry! Even more significant is the entrance of the EDA community [the one being Synopsys] into solar/PV, a segment, which has witnessed a substantial amount of investments worldwide, and specifically, in India.
It was fun catching up with Ankush Oberai, VP, Failure Analysis Business Unit, Magma Design Automation, in Silicon Valley, to find out more about the YieldManager software system, what it can do for the solar/PV industry, and why Magma decided to venture into an 'unchartered territory'.
The first and most obvious thing, why YieldManager?
Ankush Oberoi says that in semiconductors, yield impacting parameters which are regularly monitored are mostly extrinsic, i.e., from outside, such as particles, over-exposure, under-exposure and miss-processing. In solar cells, the yield impacting parameters are mostly intrinsic, that is, something built into the solar cell material which can NOT be easily seen. Thus, a different "eye" is needed to see the solar parameters. The "eye" is the YieldManager here!!!
It would NOT be either inspection tools or litho optical proximity correction (OPC) detector. The solar cell efficiency is directly influenced by electro-physics of solar materials. A YieldManger is required to monitor any changes in those efficiency impacting parameters.
The most important parameter is the lifetime of current-generating carriers. As the solar energy generates the "hole-electron" pairs, they are collected separately as electricity.
If the solar material is "dirty" with many crystalline boundaries as in thin film solar cells, the solar generated hole-electrons get pulled into those crystalline boundaries and do not contribute to the electricity generation.
"Thus, if we can find a solar yield management system to detect the very subtle change in carrier lifetime, then we are at home with a greatest Home Run in solar cell business," he contends.
Given the EDA background, why did Magma decide on a yield management technology?
He adds that yield management technology was acquired by Magma as part of the Knights Technology acquisition in Nov 2006. Magma's Fab Business Unit (formerly, Knights Technology) is a pioneer (since 1994) in yield management for semiconductor technology.
The product is deployed and used in leading fabs around the world to help manage production wafer yield. Yield management has also been deployed for mask making and LCD productions.
It would be interesting to know how Magma's new product will allow solar fabs to better monitor all metrology, inspection and performance data throughout the manufacturing process.
Oberoi says: "For Si wafer solar cell, the most important parameter to monitor is the solar conversion efficiency impacting parameters. An example would be a carrier lifetime.
"If the carrier lifetime fluctuates more than normal, the solar Yield Manager will quickly examine all of the key data, i.e., metrology, inspection and performance data, to pinpoint out potential root-causes of the fluctuation problem."
For thin film solar cell, particles, laser cutting integrity and film thickness uniformity would be main things to monitor. Those data are quite similarly collected, as in semiconductors, and would be monitored as similar ways. The Solar Yield Manager would do well as proven in semiconductors in this case.
Next, it is important to find out how will the YieldManager enable fab operators to identify and correct root causes of solar-efficiency and yield degradation caused by subtle fab processing fluctuations or instability.
According to Oberoi, the carrier lifetime, which could be caused by various factors, is the most critical parameter to monitor for achieving and maintaining the good solar conversion efficiency.
He says: "As the Solar Yield Manager carefully monitors those factors, blindly committing ~400,000 wafers a day can be eliminated, when critical process instability starts appearing and persists. The solar conversion efficiency impacting factors could be monitored differently by different solar fabs."
Some fabs may not have capabilities to monitor those factors. The Solar Yield Manager would define those metrology and performance tool requirements, when released.
It is also interesting to learn how improving the energy conversion efficiency, reducing the manufacturing costs and increasing the yield of silicon wafer-based solar cells are critical to the growth of the solar market.
Currently, the Si wafer for solar cell costs $2~$2.5/watt due to the severe shortage of Si. The selling price of a solar cell is $3~$3.5/watt, that is, the material cost is 60~70 percent of the solar cell price.
No market or industry would prevail with the 60~70 percent material cost, adds Oberoi. Thus, every milli-watt squeezed out of a solar cell would be very critically important for proliferation of solar industry.
In order to increase the power output of a solar cell, the solar conversion efficiency must be maximized. Once maximized, sustaining the good solar efficiency is the name of the game in the solar cell manufacturing business.
The effective manufacturing cost will be drastically lowered, if bad solar cells with poor solar efficiency is minimally produced. That is, some fabs will use ~400,000 wafers a day to generate ~500 M-Watt a year, whereas some ~450,000 wafers to do the same with poorer solar efficiency.
Innovation in the solar fabrication process must be accelerated, and today, no other enterprise-wide yield enhancement software exists for solar fabs.
Oberoi says: "Solar cell is an old technology, but a very new industry, simply because not enough money was being invested. Now, money is pouring into the solar industry and products like solar Yield will start to appear. It is not known yet that anyone commercially has tried to develop a similar product."
Global estimate of solar/PV industry
There are several publications with recent estimates. The annual solar cell installation in the world: Germany ~46 percent, Japan ~23 percent, USA ~9 percent, Spain ~6 percent, Italy ~4 percent, the rest of Europe ~1 percent, the rest of Asia, including India and China ~6 percent, and the rest of world ~5 percent in 2006.
Magma is currently in the design and implementation stages of the product and plan to have version 1.0 of the product commercially available in Q1-09. The company has targeted solar fabs based in Asia that are eager for early implementation of the solar yield product.
Right then: those planning or having solar fabs! Now's the time to test that home run theory with the YieldManager.
Recently, Magma Design Automation Inc. announced the development of a new yield enhancement software system, the YieldManager software system, which is customized for solar fabs to improve conversion efficiency, increase yield and reduce the manufacturing costs of solar cells.
Magma is collaborating with Pegasus Semiconductor-Solar to refine the product specifications and test the new product, based on Magma's YieldManager.
This is an interesting development, especially from the point of view of the solar/PV industry! Even more significant is the entrance of the EDA community [the one being Synopsys] into solar/PV, a segment, which has witnessed a substantial amount of investments worldwide, and specifically, in India.
It was fun catching up with Ankush Oberai, VP, Failure Analysis Business Unit, Magma Design Automation, in Silicon Valley, to find out more about the YieldManager software system, what it can do for the solar/PV industry, and why Magma decided to venture into an 'unchartered territory'.The first and most obvious thing, why YieldManager?
Ankush Oberoi says that in semiconductors, yield impacting parameters which are regularly monitored are mostly extrinsic, i.e., from outside, such as particles, over-exposure, under-exposure and miss-processing. In solar cells, the yield impacting parameters are mostly intrinsic, that is, something built into the solar cell material which can NOT be easily seen. Thus, a different "eye" is needed to see the solar parameters. The "eye" is the YieldManager here!!!
It would NOT be either inspection tools or litho optical proximity correction (OPC) detector. The solar cell efficiency is directly influenced by electro-physics of solar materials. A YieldManger is required to monitor any changes in those efficiency impacting parameters.
The most important parameter is the lifetime of current-generating carriers. As the solar energy generates the "hole-electron" pairs, they are collected separately as electricity.
If the solar material is "dirty" with many crystalline boundaries as in thin film solar cells, the solar generated hole-electrons get pulled into those crystalline boundaries and do not contribute to the electricity generation.
"Thus, if we can find a solar yield management system to detect the very subtle change in carrier lifetime, then we are at home with a greatest Home Run in solar cell business," he contends.
Given the EDA background, why did Magma decide on a yield management technology?
He adds that yield management technology was acquired by Magma as part of the Knights Technology acquisition in Nov 2006. Magma's Fab Business Unit (formerly, Knights Technology) is a pioneer (since 1994) in yield management for semiconductor technology.
The product is deployed and used in leading fabs around the world to help manage production wafer yield. Yield management has also been deployed for mask making and LCD productions.
It would be interesting to know how Magma's new product will allow solar fabs to better monitor all metrology, inspection and performance data throughout the manufacturing process.
Oberoi says: "For Si wafer solar cell, the most important parameter to monitor is the solar conversion efficiency impacting parameters. An example would be a carrier lifetime.
"If the carrier lifetime fluctuates more than normal, the solar Yield Manager will quickly examine all of the key data, i.e., metrology, inspection and performance data, to pinpoint out potential root-causes of the fluctuation problem."
For thin film solar cell, particles, laser cutting integrity and film thickness uniformity would be main things to monitor. Those data are quite similarly collected, as in semiconductors, and would be monitored as similar ways. The Solar Yield Manager would do well as proven in semiconductors in this case.
Next, it is important to find out how will the YieldManager enable fab operators to identify and correct root causes of solar-efficiency and yield degradation caused by subtle fab processing fluctuations or instability.
According to Oberoi, the carrier lifetime, which could be caused by various factors, is the most critical parameter to monitor for achieving and maintaining the good solar conversion efficiency.
He says: "As the Solar Yield Manager carefully monitors those factors, blindly committing ~400,000 wafers a day can be eliminated, when critical process instability starts appearing and persists. The solar conversion efficiency impacting factors could be monitored differently by different solar fabs."
Some fabs may not have capabilities to monitor those factors. The Solar Yield Manager would define those metrology and performance tool requirements, when released.
It is also interesting to learn how improving the energy conversion efficiency, reducing the manufacturing costs and increasing the yield of silicon wafer-based solar cells are critical to the growth of the solar market.
Currently, the Si wafer for solar cell costs $2~$2.5/watt due to the severe shortage of Si. The selling price of a solar cell is $3~$3.5/watt, that is, the material cost is 60~70 percent of the solar cell price.
No market or industry would prevail with the 60~70 percent material cost, adds Oberoi. Thus, every milli-watt squeezed out of a solar cell would be very critically important for proliferation of solar industry.
In order to increase the power output of a solar cell, the solar conversion efficiency must be maximized. Once maximized, sustaining the good solar efficiency is the name of the game in the solar cell manufacturing business.
The effective manufacturing cost will be drastically lowered, if bad solar cells with poor solar efficiency is minimally produced. That is, some fabs will use ~400,000 wafers a day to generate ~500 M-Watt a year, whereas some ~450,000 wafers to do the same with poorer solar efficiency.
Innovation in the solar fabrication process must be accelerated, and today, no other enterprise-wide yield enhancement software exists for solar fabs.
Oberoi says: "Solar cell is an old technology, but a very new industry, simply because not enough money was being invested. Now, money is pouring into the solar industry and products like solar Yield will start to appear. It is not known yet that anyone commercially has tried to develop a similar product."
Global estimate of solar/PV industry
There are several publications with recent estimates. The annual solar cell installation in the world: Germany ~46 percent, Japan ~23 percent, USA ~9 percent, Spain ~6 percent, Italy ~4 percent, the rest of Europe ~1 percent, the rest of Asia, including India and China ~6 percent, and the rest of world ~5 percent in 2006.
Magma is currently in the design and implementation stages of the product and plan to have version 1.0 of the product commercially available in Q1-09. The company has targeted solar fabs based in Asia that are eager for early implementation of the solar yield product.
Right then: those planning or having solar fabs! Now's the time to test that home run theory with the YieldManager.
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