Showing posts with label Germany. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Germany. Show all posts

Friday, August 21, 2009

Lieberose solar farm -- Germany’s biggest, world’s second-biggest

TURNOW-PREILACK, GERMANY: The Lieberose solar farm under construction in Brandenburg on Thursday became the world’s second biggest solar power plant and Germany’s biggest, Wörrstädt, Germany-based juwi Group and First Solar Inc. (Nasdaq: FSLR) announced.

The announcement followed the placement of the 560,000th solar panel in the project by German Infrastructure Minister Wolfgang Tiefensee and Brandenburg Minister President Matthias Platzeck.

The solar farm still under construction in Turnow-Preilack, near Cottbus, is in several ways a landmark project for the solar industry. Despite the current economic and financial crisis, the two companies are building a utility-scale project with a total investment volume of more than €160 million. With an output of about 53 megawatts and with a size of more than 210 football fields, it is the second-largest PV installation in the world.

“The Lieberose project demonstrates the success of Germany’s strategy of combining local production of renewable energies with other strengths, including the knowledge and expertise that resides in local companies, networks, research organizations and universities. It’s the combination that makes German competitiveness,” German Infrastructure Minister Wolfgang Tiefensee told 300 invited guests at the official inauguration.

“Lieberose is a model not just in terms of power and financing, but also in the conversion of military and other unused land,” said Platzeck. “Land that was contaminated and off limits for years is being cleared of munitions and other pollution without any financial burden on the owner of the land, the state. The Lieberose solar park is an important step toward making solar electricity a significant force in the local economy,” he added.

The project is being developed on the largest former military training site of the Soviet army in Germany. Due to the relatively low investment and operating costs, it is possible to pay Brandenburg an attractive lease that finances the restoration of the site, including the removal of metal and soil contaminated by leftover grenades, shrapnel and munitions. After the end of the lease period, the solar farm can be removed, restoring the land to its natural state.

“We aim to enable a global power supply with clean and cost-efficient solar energy. The Lieberose project alone will help save about 35,000 tons of CO2 per year,” say First Solar Managing Director Stephan Hansen and juwi Head Matthias Willenbacher. “We are especially proud of this project, because it is also ‘clean’ in another sense of that word. It is not only generating clean energy, but also ensures the removal of dangerous munitions.”

As general contractor, juwi partner juwi Solar GmbH is responsible for planning, logistics, supervising construction and delivering the finished solar farm, which is expected to be sold to an investor upon completion. “Solar farms such as Lieberose are very important for the future of all of the renewable energies,” said Willenbacher and Hansen.

“By their size and the efficiency with which the solar panels are produced, they contribute to significantly lower prices and to accelerating the advent of competitive solar electricity. This clearly increases the acceptance of solar energy,” they said.

Lieberose is scheduled to be fully operational by the end of this year. Upon completion, about 700,000 thin film modules, predominantly from First Solar’s nearby Frankfurt/Oder factory, will produce enough climate-friendly electricity to cover the equivalent electricity needs of about 15,000 households. In addition to producing the solar panels, First Solar helped finance the project.

The solar power station at a glance:
Capacity: approx. 53,000 kilowatts
Area: 162 hectares (over 210 football fields)
Module surface area: approx. 500,000 m² approx. 700,000 thin filmmodules (First Solar)
Annual yield: around 53 million kWh (corresponding to the annual consumption of around 15,000 households)
CO2 saving: approx. 35,000 tonnes per year

Monday, August 10, 2009

Worldwide photovoltaic market - 2013

NEW YORK, USA: Reportlinker.com announced that a new market research report is available in its catalog -- the Worldwide Photovoltaic Market - 2013.

In 2008, the global PV market reached 5.6GW and the cumulative PV power installed totaled almost 15GW compared to 9GW in 2007.

Spain represented almost half of the new installations in 2008 with about 2.5GW of new capacities, followed by Germany with 1.5GW of additional connected.

The US confirmed its trend with 342MW of newly-installed PV systems, followed by South Korea, which registered 274MW of PV installations over the year. Italy connected almost 260MW, while France, Portugal, Belgium and the Czech Republic made good scores confirming Europe’s worldwide leadership in the deployment of solar PV energy.

A diversification of the market is taking place with countries adopting appropriate support policies, this is very good news for the PV industry and the environment. Given the current crisis context, high uncertainties over the 2009 market exist.

Experts believe the market could reach up to 7GW in 2009, each individual country’s development influencing the final figure. The PV sector is hoping markets such as the US, Germany, France and Italy will pull the demand. Favourable policy frameworks are expected to further accelerate PV deployment in these countries.

In 2013, the worldwide PV market could reach 22GW if appropriate policies, such as feed-in tariffs (FiT), are in place.

Saturday, June 27, 2009

Solar EnerTech in sales contract with German system integrator

MENLO PARK, USA: Solar EnerTech Corp. has entered into a 10MW contract to deliver its solar modules to Solarzentrum Allgau, one of the leading solar system integrators in Germany.

The total shipment value to Solarzentrum Allgau under the contract is approximately $20 million. Shipments, aimed for solar power installations in Germany, are scheduled to begin immediately and will be delivered throughout the current calendar year.

Solarzentrum Allgau was founded in 1985 in Altdorf, Germany. The company has benefitted from Germany's introduction of the Renewable Energy Sources Act in March 2000 and has grown its operations through its specialization of sale, assembly and installation of PV systems.

The company is also the founder of an information and advisory center about solar energy in the county of Allg?u. Its President, Willi Bihler is considered a visionary in the field for his innovations in solar power installation.

Leo Young, CEO of Solar EnerTech, commented: "This is an exciting new project for Solar EnerTech which can accelerate our financial performance for this calendar year. It shows that our strategy of enhancing our operating facility and improving our product efficiency is paying off."

"The quality of our solar modules are well known to Solarzentrum Allgau as we have served as a supplier to their rooftop projects in the past. Our high-quality, efficient and reliable products continue to garner increased attention among many well-known PV system integrators, which has improved our competitive advantage in winning new contracts."

Willi Bihler, Proprietor of Solarzentrum Allgau commented: "Solar EnerTech's solar products and support services meet the criteria for high quality and performance that we demand from our suppliers. When we encounter some technical issues during our installations, Solar EnerTech's team is always available to assist us with the appropriate solutions. We look forward to further developing our relationship with Solar EnerTech and believe that through their support, we have a compelling opportunity to gain a larger share of the German market going forward."

Tuesday, June 23, 2009

TÜVRheinland opens new PV test lab in Cologne

NEWTOWN, USA: TÜVRheinland is increasing its domination of the photovoltaic market, expanding its global reach once again by opening a new test laboratory in Cologne, Germany this month.

The new Cologne location offers state-of-the-art technology for inspecting photovoltaic modules and solar thermal collectors and systems. It includes six climate chambers and five sun simulators, as well as two stations for mechanical load testing.

The 1,800 m2 facility is three times larger than the previous Cologne test site, which could no longer meet the requirements of the rapidly growing solar energy market. The company also operates two external facilities – one in Cologne and another in Italy -– for testing modules under real-weather conditions.

TÜVRheinland plays a key role in the international development of solar energy usage and quality assurance of solar modules. Since 1995, the company has continuously expanded its laboratory capacity and resources to address the needs of the ever-growing production of photovoltaic systems.

“Approximately 70% of all manufacturers of solar modules worldwide have their products tested in TÜVRheinland laboratories in order to obtain international market licenses and gain the recognition of both users and investors,” said Stephan Schmitt, President & CEO of TÜV Rheinland North America Holding Company. “Our newest test lab in Cologne demonstrates our leadership position and further solidifies our stronghold in the solar testing arena.”

With an international network across six continents, TÜVRheinland maintains the largest network of Solar Energy Laboratories worldwide with five major laboratories on three continents, providing services that include product testing and certification, production monitoring, system testing and monitoring and research and development. In addition to the German test center, the company has established solar laboratories in Japan, China and the United States.

The US laboratory, based in Tempe, Arizona, is TÜV Rheinland PTL, LLC, a leading provider of safety and performance testing, and market certification serving every sector of the photovoltaic marketplace, from the supply chain through installation.

TÜV Rheinland PTL is a unique partnership between Arizona State University, an institution with more than 50 years of research on solar energy and extensive solar testing know-how, and TÜVRheinland, a $1.5 billion global provider of independent testing, assessment, and certification services.

Thursday, June 18, 2009

Are clouds dissipating on solar energy industry?

NEW TRIPOLI, USA: Have economic conditions improved for solar cell manufacturers or just changed in the past six months are questions detailed a the report: Opportunities in The Solar Market For Crystalline and Thin Film Solar Cells, published by The Information Network.

On November 18, 2008, we issued a press release entitled “Six Reasons for Cloudy Skies on the Solar Energy Industry”. All six issues presented cast a partial eclipse of the solar market.

Subsequently, a week later we forecast that the solar market would drop from 40 percent growth to 25 percent growth in 2009. At that time, thoughts of a downturn in the luminous market were considered a heresy and comments to the article reflected the attitude of the time -– up, up, up!

Six months have gone by and its time to revisit these issues to see if anything has changed from a fundamental standpoint. The original issues presented are repeated, along with an update on the current environment:

1. With oil at $60 a barrel, who cares about alternative energy? It's a short sighted view, but with the credit market crunch, who can get a loan to build solar plants anyway?

Oil is now $70 a barrel and rising, which to us suggests that people will start rethinking alternative energy. But the second point about the credit market crunch remains. Who can get a loan to build a solar plant anyway?

2. The high price of oil in the past year was a catalyst for development in other alternative energy sources, not just solar. Advances in wind, geothermal, and hydropower energy are reducing the cost of wind power to a point at which it is becoming competitive with traditional energy sources.

Nuclear power plants smaller than a garden shed and able to power 20,000 homes will be on sale within five years, say scientists at Los Alamos, the US government laboratory which developed the first atomic bomb. Among these alternative energy sources, hydropower and nuclear have the lowest carbon footprints (carbon dioxide produced during operation).

Other alternative energy programs have been affected by the downturn. Most serious was the recent announcement by President Obama that he was terminating the Yucca Mountain nuclear waste depository. This decision gives nuclear power an uncertain future, which may be a benefit to the solar energy.

3. Spain, a huge buyer of solar, reduced its incentive program to aid buyers in 2009. In California, a seemingly green state, Prop. 7 was defeated in the November election with a whopping 65 percent of the voters saying NO. One reason: electricity consumers would pay 10 percent above market rates for renewable power forever.

Spain has not resumed its incentive program and will subsidize just 500 megawatts of solar projects this year, down sharply from 2,400 megawatts in 2008. Mainland China’s stimulus and now Taiwan’s incentives (we suspect money coming in from Mainland China) will counter the downturn in Spain and Germany.

4. The spot market price of 6-inch solar-grade wafers have fallen to $9 from a high of $12.50 in September. This bodes poorly for thin film makers and equipment suppliers.

The thin film solar panel market and hence the equipment market grew strongly because of the shortage of polysilicon. Now that polysilicon is abundant and lower priced, why make thin film panels with 8% efficiency when you get 16+ percent efficiency with silicon wafers?

The spot market price of 6-inch solar-grade wafers has now dropped to below US$3.50 per unit. Winners are the environment and polysilicon solar manufacturers. Losers are the thin film solar manufacturers unless they can achieve a way of increasing efficiency, such as a thin film nano coating being developed by SolarPA in Pennsylvania.

5. Utilization is at only 56 percent. Our analysis of 103 solar manufacturers shows that panel production capacity in 2009 will be 15 GW whereas only 8.3 GW will be sold.

Utilization has not worsened as solar companies are struggling to sell products and new capacity has been put on hold, particularly in Asia.

While polysilicon prices have dropped, solar cell manufacturers are also experiencing a 25 percent drop in revenues in 2009 from last year. The drop in solar cell prices to below $1.50 per watt is not increasing demand, which we forecast last year.

6. The dollar has appreciated strongly against the euro by nearly 25 percent. Germany is the world's largest PV market. US solar companies have had to adjust selling prices to generate sales, reducing profit margins.

On November 18, 2008, 1 Euro was equal to US$1.269. On June 15, 2009, 1 Euro was equal to US$1.385, an appreciation in the Euro of 9 percent. Large, but insignificant in light of the overall economic issues currently facing Europe.

In the past six months we have seen somewhat of a stabilization in the worldwide economies and the share prices of solar companies ramp in recent weeks.

In fundamental terms, while there have been changes in these 6 issues, there are no overriding factors to change our forecast of a downturn in the solar industry through 2009 with demand resuming in 2010 back to a 40 percent growth we projected last year.

Tuesday, June 2, 2009

Bright prospects for solar industry at Intersolar 2009

MUNICH, GERMANY: The world’s largest trade show for solar technology, Intersolar, has been an enormous success. The organizers were able to achieve their objectives, with approximately 60,000 visitors from over 150 nations visiting the show. In addition, over 2,000 participants attended the 22 conference events in Munich.

"Never before has Intersolar had more exhibitors, more visitors, more media representatives and more different nations represented. Given the difficult economic situation, we are especially pleased that Intersolar 2009 has turned out so successful. At the last provisional count here in Munich, we registered visitors from over 150 nations. The response has been truly overwhelming," says Markus Elsässer, Managing Director of Solar Promotion GmbH, one of the two organizers of Intersolar.

Klaus W. Seilnacht, CEO of Freiburg Wirtschaft Touristik und Messe GmbH & Co. KG, and co-organizer of Intersolar, is also more than satisfied with the show: "Following on from the extremely successful opening in Munich in 2008, we are pleased to see such a significant year-on-year increase in levels of interest among exhibitors and visitors. This growth in international attendance, size, number of exhibitors and visitors gives us plenty of cause for optimism."

Exhibitors and visitors highly satisfied
In view of the approximately 60,000 visitors, the large number of innovations exhibited at the show and the 37 percent increase in exhibition space, visitors and exhibitors alike were more than satisfied with Intersolar 2009.

"We have exhibited at Intersolar right from the very beginning. We have followed the show from Pforzheim to Freiburg and now to Munich. The exhibition halls are fantastic, and the show is extremely well organized. We are very pleased with the large numbers of high-caliber visitors the show is able to attract, including a great many foreign visitors, who are very important to us," says Rudolf Pfeil, CEO of RESOL – Elektronische Regelungen GmbH.

"I find Intersolar a very fascinating solar show. It is the biggest solar show in the world and you can just feel the energy here," says Connie J. Duncan, Senior Manager of Applied Materials Inc.

"We are very pleased with the way the show has gone and the fact that visitors showed a great deal of interest in our booth, and especially our new exhibits. Intersolar is without doubt the world's leading trade show and, as such, is a must for anybody who wants to launch a new product on the market," says Christoph Panhuber, Head of the Solar Electronics Division of Fronius International GmbH.

The partners of the trade show are satisfied with the event as well. Heinz Kundert, President of the SEMI Europe PV Group, has appreciated the upbeat atmosphere at the show over the last few days: "You can feel that the interest in PV is extremely high and exhibitors are pleased."

The next Intersolar will take place in Munich from June 9 to 11, 2010.

Tuesday, May 26, 2009

Linde to supply supply high purity gases to Italy’s first thin-film solar cell plant

MUNICH, GERMANY: Linde Gases, a division of The Linde Group, announced that it has been awarded the exclusive contract to supply high purity gases to Italy’s first thin-film solar module manufacturing plant. The Moncada Energy Group s.r.l., a leading private producer of renewable energy in Italy, is building the plant in Campofranco (Sicily).

Under this agreement, Linde Gas Italia, a member of The Linde Group, will provide Moncada with turnkey installation of the plant’s bulk and specialty gases supply systems. On an ongoing basis, it will also deliver nitrogen (N2), hydrogen (H2), silane (SiH4) and chamber cleaning gases which are essential to making thin-film solar cells.

“Linde Gas Italia is excited to partner with Moncada to expand Italy's growing infrastructure of renewable energy installations,” said Fabrizio Elia, CEO of Linde Gas Italia. “Our collaboration with Moncada echoes our commitment to deliver innovative environmentally friendly processes, and it also builds on our aim to make solar energy more affordable for mass consumption –- at par with the grid.”

Linde was selected based on its proven supply capability and strong global market position in turnkey solutions for thin-film solar module manufacturing. Its established R&D programme, which is focused on reducing production costs and delivering environmentally friendly solutions, was also key to the contract win. Linde has developed a process that can replace the powerful greenhouse gas nitrogen trifluoride (NF3) with pure fluorine (F2), which does not contribute to global warming.

Moncada’s thin-film PV plant in Campofranco, which becomes fully-operational in 2010, will produce large 5.7m2 single junction photovoltaic modules. The facility is expected to have an annual output capacity of 40MWp.

“Moncada’s mission is to enable the environmentally friendly and cost-effective production and installation of solar panels. Linde’s proven technology expertise mirrors our ambition to quickly achieve grid parity in Italy,” said Salvatore Moncada, CEO and founder of Moncada Energy Group. “Partnering with experts from The Linde Group and Applied Materials, Moncada is firmly placed to fuel the boom phase for renewable energy in Italy.”

Linde is the leading supplier of fluorine, producing it on-site, on-demand and at very low pressures. Developed in the late 1990s, this proven technology has been installed at more than 20 semiconductor, LCD and solar cell production sites, including Toshiba Matsushita Display, Samsung, and LG.

Friday, May 15, 2009

German PV market by far one of the world's biggest sales markets

DUBLIN, IRELAND: Research and Markets has announced the addition of the "BrandMonitor 2008/2009 -- Germany" report to its offering.

The German photovoltaic market is by far one of the biggest sales markets in the world. At the same time, the competition for consumers is already increasing in Germany.

At present, the market is changing. Sometimes the cost is regarded as the only criterion for purchase decisions. From the point of view of market research it is important not to underestimate the complexity of purchasing behavior.

Solely focusing on pricing does not necessarily result in sustainable market penetration, especially for complex products. With more than 350 cell and module manufacturers all over the world, the creation of suitable unique selling propositions might be problematic.

So far, the question of brand and brand awareness has only been discussed marginally within the photovoltaic sector.

It seems like the perception of the branch is dominated by the idea that solar products are simple consumer goods for which the brand plays a minor role. This fact corresponds with the general market development: a high demand of end customers meets with a still higher offer of solar producers.

New solar producers want to sustain their position toward well established solar brands and challenge them. Therefore, brand image and brand awareness play a even more important role nowadays when its about positioning of the own company in the market.

In case of corresponding product availability, the brand promise is a solid factor in the purchase process. The brand acquaintance is a positive factor in the selection process.

The main brand function is risk reduction of an investment for 20 years and a payback period of long above 10 years. Building up a brand is a sensitive and an interminable process. The present study is an essential support for companies on that way.

Friday, May 8, 2009

Sunfilm, Sontor merge to become one of the leading silicon-based thin film module makers

BITTERFELD-WOLFEN/GROSSROEHRSDORF, GERMANY: Sunfilm AG, Grossroehrsdorf, and Sontor GmbH, Bitterfeld-Wolfen, merge to become one of the world’s largest providers of tandem junction silicon based thin film modules. The new company will be named Sunfilm AG.

In an increasingly competitive global photovoltaic market, Sunfilm will have the necessary size and expertise to significantly profit from the growing segment of thin film solar. Q-Cells SE, Good Energies and NorSun AS will be the shareholders of the new Sunfilm and are firmly committed to supporting the company on its future growth path.

Leading manufacturer of silicon-based tandem junction thin film modules
With an installed capacity of approximately 85 megawatts peak (MWp) at the two current production sites in Bitterfeld-Wolfen and Grossroehrsdorf, plus an additional 60MWp of capacity under construction in Grossroehrsdorf, Sunfilm is already one of the world’s largest manufacturers of tandem junction silicon-based thin film modules.

“Thin film is one of the most significant growth areas within the photovoltaic industry. After the merger, the new Sunfilm will participate significantly in this growth and we will establish our company as both a driving force in the market and as a technology leader”, says Wolfgang Heinze, Chief Operating Officer and Chairman of the Executive Board of Sunfilm AG.

Economies of scale and synergies add to future growth
Sunfilm’s size and market position will enable the company to create a competitive advantage through economies of scale, despite facing an increasingly crowded market. In addition, Sunfilm can achieve a variety of cost savings, including those from synergies in purchasing and those from consolidation of overlapping segments.

The combined expertise in research and development forms an additional clear competitive advantage. As a result, Sunfilm can accelerate the further development of thin film technology and reduce production costs for solar energy in the midterm. “Sunfilm will take a top position in research and development and will significantly advance the technology of solar modules with an even higher performance”, according to Dr. Torsten Brammer, Chief Scientist and member of the Executive Board of the new Sunfilm.

Current shareholders continue to support new company
Q-Cells, the sole owner of Sontor, will hold 50 percent of the new Sunfilm shares. Q-Cells is a leader within the global photovoltaic industry and is the world’s largest producer of solar cells. “The new Sunfilm forms a central pillar in Q-Cells’ global strategy for thin film technologies”, says Dr. Florian Holzapfel, Board Member of Q-Cells, responsible for New Technologies. “This powerful merger will create even more growth momentum in this thin film sector.”

Good Energies, a leading global investor in renewable energy and energy efficiency industries, as well as NorSun AS, a Norwegian manufacturer of high performance monocrystalline silicon wafers, will also remain invested in Sunfilm and support the future growth of the new company. Good Energies will hold about 35 percent of the new company and about 15 percent will be owned by NorSun. “We believe the merger is the best way to capitalize on the enormous potential of tandem junction thin film technology and to establish a leading company in the market”, explains Dr. Sven Hansen, Chief Investment Officer of Good Energies and Chairman of the Supervisory Board of Sunfilm.

Strengthening of Germany as PV centre
The new Sunfilm AG will have production sites in Grossroehrsdorf and Bitterfeld-Wolfen, while the centre for research and development will be located in Bitterfeld-Wolfen. The new company now has approximately 400 employees, but additional jobs will be created in the midterm as the expansion in Grossroehrsdorf comes on-line. The merger of the two companies is expected to become legally effective by the end of May 2009, but is still subject to approval by the competent antitrust agencies.

Wednesday, April 22, 2009

First Solar, Juvi secure financing for 53MW PV power plant in Germany

TEMPE, USA: First Solar Inc. and Juwi Holding AG announced that they have secured financing for a 53 megawatt (MW) DC photovoltaic (PV) power plant near the German city of Cottbus.

More than 80 percent of the required project capital is financed through non-recourse debt from a consortium of banks. First Solar and Juwi intend to sell the majority of the project after its completion. Construction of the project began in January 2009, and the first 15MW have been completed. The remaining 38MW are scheduled to be completed by the end of 2009.

The project is being constructed on 162 hectares of land that is part of the Soviet Army's former 26,000 hectare Lieberose training area north of Cottbus in eastern Germany. The project's low cost enables the required return to fund an attractive land lease for the State of Brandenburg. The lease, in turn, finances the environmental cleanup of this former military zone, which is littered with tons of land mines, grenades and other munitions.

Matthias Platzeck, minister president of the German state government of Brandenburg, where Lieberose is located, said the project is a model for the conversion of former military land to productive use. "This kind of project helps us heal the scars of the Cold War and meet our ambitious targets for renewable energy production at the same time," he said.

"First Solar's mission is to enable a world powered by clean, affordable solar electricity," said Stephan Hansen, managing director, First Solar GmbH. "This project alone is expected to displace approximately 35,000 tons of C02 emissions a year. But we are particularly proud of this project because it adds an additional element to 'clean.' Not only will the project produce clean electricity, but it will also result in the removal of hazardous munitions from this project site."

Upon completion, the PV power plant will consist of approximately 700,000 modules and is projected to be the largest in Germany, producing enough power to provide for the annual electricity needs of more than 14,000 homes, and the second largest worldwide.

"The sheer size of the project helps us achieve economies of scale that are a significant factor in helping PV energy become competitive with fossil fuels and to be able to provide an increasing contribution to national renewable energy targets," said Hansen.

Brandenburg Economics Minister Ulrich Junghanns said the project underlines the state's credentials as an energy producer. "The Lieberose project will shine far and wide and help Brandenburg solidify its top billing as a center of solar power production," he said.

Matthias Willenbacher, Juwi chief executive, said, "Large projects like this one demonstrate that solar power is already capable of making significant contributions to addressing climate change." With this project, Juwi, using First Solar modules, has developed the three largest PV power plants in Germany.

Saturday, April 18, 2009

Will solar downturn lead to more mature PV industry?

The severe downturn in the global Photovoltaic (PV) market in 2009 actually could have a positive outcome for the worldwide solar industry, yielding a more mature and orderly supply chain when growth returns, according to iSuppli Corp.

Worldwide installations of PV systems will decline to 3.5 Gigawatts (GW) in 2009, down 32 percent from 5.2GW in 2008. With the average price per solar watt declining by 12 percent in 2009, global revenue generated by PV system installations will plunge by 40.2 percent to $18.2 billion, down from $30.5 billion in 2008.

The figures present iSuppli’s forecasts of global PV installations in terms of gigawatts and revenue.

Fig 1: Global Photovoltaic System Installation Forecast in Megawatts, 2008-2013Source: iSuppli, April 2009

“For years, the PV industry enjoyed vigorous double-digit annual growth in the 40 percent range, spurring a wild-west mentality among market participants,” said Dr. Henning Wicht, senior director and principal analyst for iSuppli. “An ever-rising flood of market participants attempted to capitalize on this growth, all hoping to claim a 10 percent share of market revenue by throwing more production capacity into the market. This overproduction situation, along with a decline in demand, will lead to the sharp, unprecedented fall in PV industry revenue in 2009.”

However, the 2009 PV downturn, like the PC shakeout of the mid 1980s, is likely to change the current market paradigm, cutting down on industry excesses and leading to a more mature market in 2010 and beyond.

Fig 2: Global Revenues Generated by Photovoltaic Installations 2008-2013 in Millions of US DollarsSource: iSuppli, April 2009

“The number of new suppliers entering and competing in the PV supply chain will decelerate and the rate of new capacity additions will slow, bringing a better balance between supply and demand in the future,” Wicht said.

Blame it on Spain
The single event most responsible for the 2009 PV market slowdown was a sharp decline in expected PV installations in Spain. Spain accounted for 50 percent of worldwide installations in 2008. An artificial demand surge had been created in Spain as the time approached when the country’s feed-in-tariff rate was set to drop and a new cap of 500 Megawatts (MW) loomed for projects qualifying for the above-market tariff. This set a well-defined deadline for growth in the Spanish market in 2009 and 2010.

While the Spanish situation is spurring a surge in excess inventory and falling prices for solar cells and systems, this will not stimulate sufficient demand to compensate for the lost sales in 2009. Even new and upgraded incentives for solar installations from nations including the United States and Japan—and attractive investment conditions in France, Italy, the Czech Republic, Greece and other countries—cannot compensate for the Spanish whiplash in 2009.

The Spanish impact will continue into 2010, restraining global revenue growth to 29.2 percent for the year. Beyond Spain, the PV market is being adversely impacted by the credit crunch.

“Power production investors and commercial entities are at least partially dependent upon debt financing,” Wicht noted. “Starting in the first quarter of 2009, many large and medium solar-installation projects went on hold as they awaited a thaw in bank credit flows.”

After the fall
After 2010, the fundamental drivers of PV demand will reassert themselves, bringing a 57.8 percent increase in revenue in 2011 and similar growth rates in 2012 and 2013.

“PV remains attractive because it continues to demonstrate a favorable Return on Investment (RoI),” Wicht said. “Furthermore, government incentives in the form of above-market feed-in-tariffs and tax breaks will remain in place, making the RoI equations viable through 2012. Cost reductions will lead to attractive RoI and payback periods even without governmental help after 2012.”

Furthermore, lower system prices will open up new markets by lowering incentives and subvention costs. The lower the PV system prices are, the lower the incentives will have to be. Developing regions will be big the beneficiaries of these lower prices and thus will grow faster than the global average, Wicht said.

Source: iSuppli, USA