Dr. Robert Castellano on how to make solar a ‘hot’ sector again – 2

This is the concluding part of my conversation with Dr. Robert N. Castellano, president of The Information Network, based in New Tripoli, USA.

The question of adding new, additional solar capacity will always arise. Is t certain that no new additional capacity will be brought on board in 2009? Dr. Castellano said: "Actually I said 2010. Solar manufacturers are already losing money this year and the capacity utilization is 27.9 percent. Also, the days of inventory are currently 122, up from 71 days in 2008. If they continue to add new capacity, things will only worsen, exasperating the recession."

Lessons for India?
Turning our attention to India, which has lately been witnessing a lot of talks of building new capacity. According to Dr. Castellano, now is a good time to talk, as a plant will take at least a year to get into full production. By that time, prices should be stabilized and increase.

What then are the lessons to learn from all of this for the Indian solar PV industry?
He added: "What has to be weighed is the cost of making the solar panels in India versus buying the outside the country. It can take several years for a plant to be profitable. If the venture was established from money from India’s government through subsidies, it can lessen the impact of potential losses, while the plants ramp and selling prices move up to a level where production becomes profitable."

I hope this valuable piece of advice is noted by the existing players or those looking to entering the solar photovoltaics segment in India.

Bring down solar production cost per watt
Dr. Castellano had mentioned about First Solar bringing production costs down to $0.93 per watt. How many of the others are capable of matching or bettering this?

He said, for that matter, Oerlikon, expects that its lines will deliver a cost of $0.70 cents per watt by the end of 2010 and has achieved an initial conversion efficiency of 11 percent, which comes out to about 9.5 percent of stabilized efficiency.

How can manufacturers differentiate their solar products?
Another query has been, how should solar manufacturers differentiate their products and how can they do it cheaply?

Certainly, there are new avenues of manufacturing, such as CdTe from First Solar, CIGS from half a dozen manufacturers, multi-junction cells from companies such as Uni-Solar, and building integrated photovoltaics (BIPV) from an increasing number of manufacturers, advised Dr. Castellano.

He said: "These technologies differentiate the companies’ products, but the proportion of wattage manufactured, while growing, is small compared to the majority of solar panels sold using traditional methods of production, i.e., a thin film on a glass substrate.

"Long life and low cost of ownership are of paramount importance if solar is to grow, particularly, if there is to be a large acceptance at the residential level. Manufacturing can introduce defects in solar cells that can result in low electron mobility (EM), electron traps and photo-degradation from UV light. These issues affect the efficiency and lifetime of solar cells and the importance of measuring electron mobility at the wafer and cell stage.

"The lifetime of minority carriers has been widely identified to be the key material parameter determining the conversion efficiency of pn-junctions in silicon solar cells. Defects in the crystal lattice reduce the charge carrier lifetime and thus limit the performance of the solar cells. Another major efficiency loss is due to impurities in the cell.

"These can be foreign atoms or molecules in the crystal lattice (including the dopant atoms), and provide sites where electrons and holes can recombine, thereby reducing the number of charged particles available to create an electrical current.

"Lehighton Electronics (Lehighton, PA) is an example of a company that has developed a variety of tools to test and measure solar wafers. One tool can measure sheet resistance and resistivity to see if there is any subsurface damage. Another system can measure minority carrier lifetimes, while a third model can find traps in solar wafers."

How to make solar hot (all over again!)?
Finally, isn't solar hot enough ? What would really make it hot (all over again)?

According to Dr Castellano, oil is now $70 a barrel [around August 23, 2009] and rising, which, to him suggests that people will start rethinking alternative energy. However, the second point about the credit market crunch remains. Who can get a loan to build a solar plant anyway? That will change once the recession is over.

He added: "Spain has not resumed its incentive program and will subsidize just 500 megawatts of solar projects this year, down sharply from 2,400 megawatts in 2008. Mainland China’s stimulus and now Taiwan’s incentives (we suspect money coming in from Mainland China) will counter the downturn in Spain and Germany.

"In the past six months we have seen somewhat of a stabilization in the worldwide economies and the share prices of solar companies ramp in recent weeks.

The passage of stimulus bills around the world will provide a ray of hope for the industry. In the US, for example, the new Stimulus Bill of 2009 changes the rules on how investment tax credits are awarded, allowing companies that are building power plants to take 30 percent of the cost as a tax break in a project's first year. This could prove vital because, in the last quarter of 2008, 10 out of 14 tax-equity providers stopped doing business in the solar market."

On SolarPA
Unknown to many in this part of the world, Dr Castellano started SolarPA, a few months ago. Providing more details, he said: "SolarPA, a company I started a few months ago, has demonstrated increases in efficiency of polycrystalline and silicon solar cells by up to 10 percent using a proprietary nanomaterial coating. Increasing the efficiency by 10 percent will automatically increase a 50MW production line to 55MW, reducing material and labor costs.

"We are looking for funding and I have been in talks with solar material and equipment manufacturers to partner for further development. We have NDAs with Applied Materials, Air Products, and Baker Mallinkdrodt, and are expecting them from Oerlikon and Ferro. These companies would develop the technology and then our joint partnership would license it to the solar manufacturers.

"Another possibility is to get investor money to develop the technology in-house, eliminating the need for the middlemen above. 1366 Technologies, for example, is developing a technology that it claims can boost multicrystalline silicon cells from 16 percent efficiency to 18 percent efficiency, thereby reducing their cost per watt, by giving the solar cells a rougher texture. The startup raised $12.4 million in 2008.

"Xerocoat developed a coating strategy that increases efficiency by 4 percent on not only a multicrystalline silicon cell but thin film cells as well. The company received $3 million in DOE funding in 2009.

To be concluded

Dr. Robert Castellano on how to make solar a'hot' sector again - 1

Last week, I was very fortunate enough to be able to get into a conversation with Dr. Robert N. Castellano, president of The Information Network, based in New Tripoli, USA. It all started with a column, which he writes regularly in “The Street.” One of the recent colums of Dr. Castellano touched upon –- What could make solar hot again?

This first part will touch upon issues such as six reasons for cloudy solar skies and how to rectify the current oversupply situation in solar cell manufacturing, status of a-Si solar cell makers, crystalline vs. thin film capacity, and impact of prices.

How to rectify the solar cell oversupply?
As I'd asked iSuppli too, in one of my recent posts, I also quizzed Dr. Castellano on whether the previously committed capacity expansions have caused solar cell manufacturing oversupply? Also, why had this happened and how could this be corrected?

He said: “The problem will rectify itself when demand catches up with supply, which will take several years. Until then, suppliers are faced with lower prices and margins. I was the first to point out on March 5 2008, in my blog on Seeking Alpha in an article entitled “Contradictions in the Solar Industry” that “The solar industry is faced with a huge oversupply of solar panels planned for production in 2008, but no one seems to notice… or care. Shares in many solar companies such as Evergreen Solar), First Solar SunPower, and Suntech Power have surged with the booming solar market.”

Six reasons for cloudy solar skies
He added: “On November 18, 2008, in another blog on Seeking Alpha entitled “Six Reasons for Cloudy Skies on the Solar Energy Industry” that the problems in the solar industry were the result of the following:

1. With oil at $60 a barrel, who cares about alternative energy? It is a short sighted view, but with the credit market crunch, who can get a loan to build solar plants anyway?”

2. The high price of oil in the past year was a catalyst for the development in other alternative energy sources, and not just solar! Advances in wind, geothermal and hydropower energy are reducing the cost of wind power to a point at which it is becoming competitive with traditional energy sources. Nuclear power plants -- smaller than a garden shed and able to power 20,000 homes -- will be on sale within five years, say scientists at Los Alamos, the US government laboratory, which developed the first atomic bomb. Among these alternative energy sources, hydropower and nuclear have the lowest carbon footprints (carbon dioxide produced during operation).

3. Spain, a huge buyer of solar, reduced its incentive program to aid buyers in 2009. In California, a seemingly green state, Prop. 7 was defeated in the November election with a whopping 65 percent of the voters saying NO. One reason: electricity consumers would pay 10 percent above the market rates for renewable power forever.

4. The spot market price of six-inch solar-grade wafers have fallen to $9 from a high of $12.50 in September. This bodes poorly for thin film makers and equipment suppliers. The thin film solar panel market and hence, the equipment market grew strongly because of the shortage of polysilicon. Now that polysilicon is abundant and lower priced, why make thin film panels with 8 percent efficiency when you get 16+ percent efficiency with silicon wafers?

5. “Utilization is at only 56 percent. Our analysis of 103 solar manufacturers shows that panel production capacity in 2009 will be 15 GW whereas only 8.3 GW will be sold.

6. The dollar has appreciated strongly against the euro by nearly 25 percent. Germany is the world's largest PV market. US solar companies have had to adjust selling prices to generate sales, reducing profit margins.”

Have companies been overlooking inventory problems?
In this context, weren't the solar companies doing enough to check all of these during the downturn of Q4-08? Even the 71 days to 122 days excess supply or inventory is huge!

Dr. Castellano said: “The solar companies were benefiting from the low price of polysilicon as a result of excess inventory in that sector. They were renegotiating contract prices with the poly suppliers and dropping prices. With money in place, they continued to build capacity well into 2009. All the factors discussed above took everyone by surprise (witness the stock market crash) and the recession has lasted much longer than initially forecast.

Where does this place a-Si solar cell makers?
How is all of this potentially setting the stage for the failure of multiple cell manufacturers, particularly those pursuing a-Si thin film solar cells?

He added that thin film cells are still less expensive to make and companies are working to improve their efficiency. Also, they appear to work at stated efficiency under lower incident light conditions.

“The issue is the economics in a solar farm where they are installed. The installation price is the same as a polycrystalline panel. Since the efficiency is lower and it takes more panels to reach the same wattage as polycrystalline, it also takes more hook-ups and frames during installation.

“If the panels move, there is another factor in the motors to move them. However, the production cost is lower than the polycrystalline panels. Oerlikon, expects its lines will deliver a cost of 70 cents per watt by the end of 2010 and has achieved an initial conversion efficiency of 11 percent, which comes out to about 9.5 percent of stabilized efficiency.”

Crystalline vs. thin film capacity
There is still a huge amount of solar cell manufacturing capacity in crystalline silicon solar cell, rather than thin film. Are there any chances of that starting to change any time soon?

Dr. Castellano said: “Until last year, Germany had been the world's largest solar market thanks to its feed-in tariffs, which require utilities to buy all the solar energy produced at premium, government-set prices. As a result, analysts now expect Germany, which doesn't have an annual cap like the one in Spain, to become the biggest market again in 2009.Germany installed 1.35 gigawatts of solar energy systems in 2008, and it could add another 1.5 gigawatts in 2009.

“Spain took the lead last year, but the government has since reduced the subsidies and capped the amount of energy that could be sold under the subsidy program. The financial market crisis has made it difficult for developers to line up financing for solar power projects. Spain, which added a few gigawatts of solar in 2008 alone, now has a 500-megawatt cap for 2009. All of these forces have led to an oversupply of silicon panels.

“As governments -- Germany and Spain were a driving force – in the solar industry’s run-up, they were a factor in the downturn. Once the recession is over and liquidity returns, they will mitigate the overcapacity, particularly as prices are so low and there is pent-up demand for new installations.”

Impact of Q4 on overall prices and industry
Another aspect worth examining is the overall impact of this (Q4) on overall prices and the industry.

Dr. Castellano said that silicon used to sell for more than $300 per kilogram on the spot market and $150 per kilogram for long-term contracts a few years ago. Silicon prices have since fallen significantly over the past year. In fact, the long-term contract price has dropped about 50 percent, close to the spot market price of $67 per kilogram, or about $0.50 per watt.

“Polysilicon panels are selling at $2.25 to $2.50 per watt from $4.17 in Q2 2008. We expect prices to decline further throughout the remainder of the year,” he noted.

In part 2 of this conversation, I will be discussing additional capacity in solar, new capacity in India, and of course, lessons to learn for the Indian solar industry. Watch this space, folks!

Oerlikon Solar and Rusnano/Renova JV opens up Russian market for thin film solar PV

SWITZERLAND: Oerlikon Solar recently announced that Nano Solar Technology Ltd (NST), a newly formed Russian high-tech firm, has ordered a 120 MW end-to-end Micromorph line for production of thin film solar modules.

NST is a joint venture between Renova Group and the Russian Corporation of Nanotechnologies (Rusnano). With the envisaged production capacity of one million solar modules annually, this is the largest equipment order in the worldwide thin film silicon PV market in 2009 to-date.

The order includes Oerlikon Solar's Micromorph® technology which raises module efficiency by up to 50 percent over prior generation technologies. The equipment will be delivered in 2010 to the new site currently under construction in Novocheboksarsk (Chuvash Republic). The start of production is scheduled for 2011. The order also encompasses a comprehensive multi-year service agreement, provided by Oerlikon Solar's global customer support team.

Establishing production of thin film solar modules in the Chuvash Republic is part of Rusnano's strategy to develop the high tech economy in Russia by co-investing in nanotechnology industry projects.

Through acting as a catalyst for private co-investments, Rusnano aims at creating conditions favourable to developing cutting edge nanotechnology in Russia, the joint venture with Renova being a good example.

"Oerlikon Solar emerged from a thorough evaluation process to identify the best technology partner for our project, because of its leading technology," said Yaroslav Kuznetsov, CEO of NST.

"This is a win-win situation for all parties involved. Oerlikon Solar can establish a strong presence in the Russian market and the Russian economy has made another step as a state-of-the-art production site", continued Yaroslav Kuznetsov.

In addition to the planned production line from Oerlikon, Rusnano plans to set up a major research center that will focus on increasing the effectiveness of the solar modules in cooperation with the Ioffe Physical Technical Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

The JV of Rusnano and Renova will be the latest Micromorph end-to-end line customer for Oerlikon Solar to take advantage of the company's proven high-performance low cost PV module production solution. It will deliver Micromorph PV modules to serve the growing market for solar PV applications. The company will address PV markets such as Spain, Italy, Greece and Germany.

Oerlikon Solar's leading edge production solutions are having a major impact on the market as more and more companies launch their production.

"Russia and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) offer great market potential for Oerlikon in the medium and long-term", said Oerlikon CEO Dr. Uwe Krueger. Already today, the Oerlikon Segments Coating, Vacuum, Textile and Drive Systems are conducting business in Russia. With the substantial order from NST, Oerlikon Solar established itself in this important economic zone as well.

"The contract confirms our leading edge technology and our unique ability to quickly implement and scale up commercially successful mass production of thin film solar modules. The 120 MW Micromorph end-to-end production line will position NST as a key player among thin film PV manufacturers," continued Dr. Uwe Krueger, CEO of OC Oerlikon.

Oerlikon Solar is committed to the highest quality of customer support and is taking great measures to ensure that resources and delivery capabilities grow to meet the needs of future expansion in the solar industry.

Oerlikon Solar's technology gaining momentum
In addition to expansion into new markets, several existing Oerlikon Solar customers have recently announced new off-take agreements to deliver PV panels manufactured on Oerlikon Solar's end-to-end lines.

HelioSphera (Greece) announced the signing of a long term supply agreement with Techno Spot, a major Italian distributor of photovoltaic modules and components. Under this agreement, HelioSphera will supply a minimum of 9 MW of Micromorph thin film modules between 2009 and 2010. German based Sinosol AG has announced agreements with two Taiwanese Oerlikon Solar customers for a total of 68 MW.

"We clearly see improving market conditions for the solar PV industry at mid-year showing a mid- to long-term growth trend in demand for overall renewable energy and especially for solar PV applications", stated Oerlikon CEO Uwe Krueger.

According to a recently published study by New Energy Finance, new investments in clean energy worldwide rallied in the second quarter of 2009, reaching $24.3bn, almost double the amount invested worldwide during Q1 2009. According to New Energy Finance, this improving trend in Q2 was led by investments in asset finance for large solar and wind energy projects.

Are clouds dissipating on solar energy industry?

NEW TRIPOLI, USA: Have economic conditions improved for solar cell manufacturers or just changed in the past six months are questions detailed a the report: Opportunities in The Solar Market For Crystalline and Thin Film Solar Cells, published by The Information Network.

On November 18, 2008, we issued a press release entitled “Six Reasons for Cloudy Skies on the Solar Energy Industry”. All six issues presented cast a partial eclipse of the solar market.

Subsequently, a week later we forecast that the solar market would drop from 40 percent growth to 25 percent growth in 2009. At that time, thoughts of a downturn in the luminous market were considered a heresy and comments to the article reflected the attitude of the time -– up, up, up!

Six months have gone by and its time to revisit these issues to see if anything has changed from a fundamental standpoint. The original issues presented are repeated, along with an update on the current environment:

1. With oil at $60 a barrel, who cares about alternative energy? It's a short sighted view, but with the credit market crunch, who can get a loan to build solar plants anyway?

Oil is now $70 a barrel and rising, which to us suggests that people will start rethinking alternative energy. But the second point about the credit market crunch remains. Who can get a loan to build a solar plant anyway?

2. The high price of oil in the past year was a catalyst for development in other alternative energy sources, not just solar. Advances in wind, geothermal, and hydropower energy are reducing the cost of wind power to a point at which it is becoming competitive with traditional energy sources.

Nuclear power plants smaller than a garden shed and able to power 20,000 homes will be on sale within five years, say scientists at Los Alamos, the US government laboratory which developed the first atomic bomb. Among these alternative energy sources, hydropower and nuclear have the lowest carbon footprints (carbon dioxide produced during operation).

Other alternative energy programs have been affected by the downturn. Most serious was the recent announcement by President Obama that he was terminating the Yucca Mountain nuclear waste depository. This decision gives nuclear power an uncertain future, which may be a benefit to the solar energy.

3. Spain, a huge buyer of solar, reduced its incentive program to aid buyers in 2009. In California, a seemingly green state, Prop. 7 was defeated in the November election with a whopping 65 percent of the voters saying NO. One reason: electricity consumers would pay 10 percent above market rates for renewable power forever.

Spain has not resumed its incentive program and will subsidize just 500 megawatts of solar projects this year, down sharply from 2,400 megawatts in 2008. Mainland China’s stimulus and now Taiwan’s incentives (we suspect money coming in from Mainland China) will counter the downturn in Spain and Germany.

4. The spot market price of 6-inch solar-grade wafers have fallen to $9 from a high of $12.50 in September. This bodes poorly for thin film makers and equipment suppliers.

The thin film solar panel market and hence the equipment market grew strongly because of the shortage of polysilicon. Now that polysilicon is abundant and lower priced, why make thin film panels with 8% efficiency when you get 16+ percent efficiency with silicon wafers?

The spot market price of 6-inch solar-grade wafers has now dropped to below US$3.50 per unit. Winners are the environment and polysilicon solar manufacturers. Losers are the thin film solar manufacturers unless they can achieve a way of increasing efficiency, such as a thin film nano coating being developed by SolarPA in Pennsylvania.

5. Utilization is at only 56 percent. Our analysis of 103 solar manufacturers shows that panel production capacity in 2009 will be 15 GW whereas only 8.3 GW will be sold.

Utilization has not worsened as solar companies are struggling to sell products and new capacity has been put on hold, particularly in Asia.

While polysilicon prices have dropped, solar cell manufacturers are also experiencing a 25 percent drop in revenues in 2009 from last year. The drop in solar cell prices to below $1.50 per watt is not increasing demand, which we forecast last year.

6. The dollar has appreciated strongly against the euro by nearly 25 percent. Germany is the world's largest PV market. US solar companies have had to adjust selling prices to generate sales, reducing profit margins.

On November 18, 2008, 1 Euro was equal to US$1.269. On June 15, 2009, 1 Euro was equal to US$1.385, an appreciation in the Euro of 9 percent. Large, but insignificant in light of the overall economic issues currently facing Europe.

In the past six months we have seen somewhat of a stabilization in the worldwide economies and the share prices of solar companies ramp in recent weeks.

In fundamental terms, while there have been changes in these 6 issues, there are no overriding factors to change our forecast of a downturn in the solar industry through 2009 with demand resuming in 2010 back to a 40 percent growth we projected last year.

Strategies for gaining share in the solar market (Part II)

NEW TRIPOLI, USA: Solar cell manufacturers must differentiate themselves during the slowdown in the solar cell market, according to a report: Opportunities in The Solar Market For Crystalline and Thin Film Solar Cells, recently published by The Information Network.

We wrote in Part I how solar manufacturers can differentiate their products, particularly during the economic slowdown.

We discussed increasing efficiency. For example, a local company (contact us for details) has developed a coating for amorphous and polycrystalline cells that can improve efficiency between 8 percent and 12 percent using non-vacuum techniques so that the cost is in the cents per watt range.

Tunable refractive indices make these materials excellent candidates for improving both thermal conductivity and absorption bandwidths. When these unique, novel coatings are coupled with nano-enhanced polymeric coatings, significantly improved durability and extended product life can be anticipated. UV resistance, resistance to optical crazing, and the effect of adverse weather and temperature conditions is also predicted. Films can be coated on any surface.

The other strategy for gaining share, which was mentioned in Part 1 and is discussed here, is to improve reliability:

Long life and low cost of ownership are of paramount importance if solar is to grow, particularly if there is to be a large acceptance at the residential level.

Manufacturing can introduce defects in solar cells that can result in low electron mobility (EM), electron traps and photo-degradation from UV light. These issues affect the efficiency and lifetime of solar cells and the importance of measuring electron mobility at the wafer and cell stage.

The lifetime of minority carriers has been widely identified to be the key material parameter determining the conversion efficiency of pn-junctions in silicon solar cells. Defects in the crystal lattice reduce the charge carrier lifetime and thus limit the performance of the solar cells.

Another major efficiency loss is due to impurities in the cell. These can be foreign atoms or molecules in the crystal lattice (including the dopant atoms), and provide sites where electrons and holes can recombine, thereby reducing the number of charged particles available to create an electrical current.

Lehighton Electronics (Lehighton, PA) is an example of a company that has developed a variety of tools to test and measure solar wafers. One tool can measure sheet resistance and resistivity to see if there is any subsurface damage. Another system can measure minority carrier lifetimes, while a third model can find traps in solar wafers.

Manufacturers and buyers of silicon wafers can benefit from knowledge about the quality of the product. Manufacturers can adjust growing parameters to minimize defect and impurity problems and buyers can evaluate product before going to the expense of turning them into solar cells.

Opportunities in India's solar/PV landscape: SEMI India

Solar/photovoltaics (PV) holds tremendous potential and promise for India, a fact not hidden from anyone. To further highlight its importance, SEMI India unveiled its first paper on Solar PV in India yesterday afternoon.

More action from Indian government needed
The meet called for more action from the government of India, a more closer industry-government collaboration, as well as the need for financial institutions to pay more attention to the solar/PV segment in India.

The photo here shows from left to right: Dr. Madhusudan V. Atre, President, Applied Materials India; Dr. J. Gururaja, Renewable Energy Action Forum & Executive President, SEMI India; K. Subramanya, CEO, Tata BP Solar; and Sathya Prasad, president, SEMI India.

Touching on the rationale for this SEMI paper on solar/PV's landscape in India, Dr. J. Gururaja, Renewable Energy Action Forum and Executive President, SEMI India, said it was meant to project the solar/PV industry's perspective: where we are and what needs to be done! This is a first account report and will be followed by many other such reports.

He said: "Solar in general, and PV in particular, can address the challenges that we face today. Solar/PV has a special attraction. It converts solar to electricity without involving any moving parts."

He added that although the industry has been looking at the potential, the markets have not been expanding as expected. "We need to see what can be done and achieved. This report is a stock-taking exercise," he pointed out.

Case for solar/PV in India
Sathya Prasad, president of SEMI India, touched upon the case for PV in India. These include:
* The existing power deficit situation in many parts of the country.
* India's brisk economic growth implies rising energy needs.
* Overdependence on coal for electricity generation -- limited coal reserves and CO2 emissions.
* Overdependence on oil and natural gas imports -- it accounts for 7 percent of GDP and consequent energy security concerns.

According to him, India is abundantly endowed with solar radiation. So far, so good!

Key PV opportunities for India
According to SEMI's paper, the key PV opportunities for India lie in off-grid applications and grid-connected PV. The off-grid applications include:
* Basic lighting and electrification of rural homes.
* Irrigation pump sets.
* Power back-up for cellular base station towers -- approximately, there will be 2.9 lakh base station towers by the end of 2009.
* Urban applications -- such as street lighting, etc.

The opportunities in grid-connected PV exist in:
* The current grid connected PV generation capacity is very small.
* Existing power deficit and huge projected future need.
* The cost point of PV has been declining continuously with technology improvements and scale.

Benefits of PV in India
The benefits of PV in India extend well beyond addressing energy needs. For instance, renewable energy technologies create more jobs than any fossil fuel based technologies. It also creates jobs across the value chain -- from R&D to manufacturing, installation and maintenance. Sathya Prasad highlighted MNRE's point that about 100,000 jobs could be created out of PV.

PV also has the capability of transforming lives. About 450 million Indians today manage with kerosene/other fuels for very basic lighting despite its significant health and safety risks. In this context, special mention needs to be made of the Aryavarta Grameen Bank's home electrification program.

Challenges for PV in India
Evidently, a bunch of opportunities are awaiting India in the solar/PV space. However, several challenges need to be overcome as well. These would be:
* Need for closer industry-government co-operation.
* Need for standards.
* Need for collaborative, goals driven R&D.
* Training and human resources development
* Need for financing infrastructure and models.

So, what are the recommendations of this paper on solar/PV landscape in India, and further call to action? These are:
* Need to evolve a common government-industry vision to make India a world leader in PV.
* Develop financing infrastructure and models that will motivate large-scale PV adoption and investments.
* Expand development of PV in off-grid applications.
* Accelerate grid-connected PV generation on a large scale.

Call for low carbon growth strategy
"Low carbon growth path is universal now. To make that happen, there needs to be a political will," advised K. Subramanya, CEO, Tata BP Solar, and chairman SEMI India PV Advisory Committee, while presenting his perspective on the solar/PV industry in India.

There has been little action on part of the government of India. "This needs to be implemented on the ground. We need policy and lifestyle innovation," he added. Subramanya cautioned that, "Too much of analysis will result in paralysis." According to him, separate budgets are required for a low carbon growth strategy. "Solar has tremendous potential. Even its learning curve is brilliant," Subramanya noted.

He added that if the European Union (EU) can make a low carbon journey so smoothly, then why not India? For instance, in Karnataka state alone, the demand is said to be 6700MW and a 10-11 percent peak shortage. We have 20-odd lakh Bhagya Jyoti and Kutir Jyoti units, and around 7,870-odd street lights. If a majority of these can be replaced by solar, it could lead to tremendous savings! This could be at least 57MW for a state like Karnataka. Apparently, all of this would require an investment of Rs. 52 crores and a payback time of two years.

"Why can't we develop a low-carbon growth path for every state in India? Imagine, what it can do for the other states," Subramanya highlighted. "If the power sector does not do well, it will hit the country's GDP!" Quite rightly so!!

Subramanya cited another example of solar water heaters in Karnataka. There are 32 lakh homes, of which about 5 lakh homes have solar water heaters. If more houses were to adopt these, it would result in a saving of 4,000MW of electricity! The Tata BP Solar CEO also called upon financial institutions to have a closer look at solar. Even the tariffs structure for solar/PV in India is not favorable enough.

He also touched upon US President Barack Obama's energy plan and the actions taken, since his comin to power, and drew a parallel with India's national action plan, which includes a solar mssion. This was released last June, but hardly any action has happened on the ground. So, there needs be changes on this front as well.

Four key aspects for solar/PV in India
Dr. Madhusudan V. Atre, president, Applied Materials India and vice chairman SEMI India PV Advisory Committee, highlighted four major aspects while presenting his perspective on the solar/PV industry. These are:
* See the advantage SEMI India brings to India. It can help bring costs down, due to the involvement of the PV Group.
* A point Dr. Atre had highlighted to me about a year back -- that solar/PV is a great way to trigger manufacturing in India. He said that the solar/PV ecosystem will be a very important step in setting up a semiconductor manufacturing ecosystem in the country.
* What wireless did to telecom -- perhaps, solar/PV has a similar aim! It can get rid of transmission lines and actually take power to the people!
* The Indian government-academia-industry would need to work hand-in-hand.