Solar PV module revenues and volumes (not prices) bottomed in Q1

Here's a beautiful article I found on E4 Capital LLC, an independent research firm started in 2009 providing ideas to professional investment managers in the public equities of “cleantech” related companies

The solar energy sector, measured by revenues, appears to have hit bottom in calendar Q1. We expect that when full Q2 results are in they will show a strong rebound (better than 30 percent in aggregate) off the Q1 low, although the Q2 level is unlikely to recover all the way to the Q4:08 level.

Only about five of approximately 25 public solar companies that report quarterly results have reported their calendar Q2 results to date (8/11/09). After reviewing their results and looking at the consensus expectations for the remaining 20 names, we concluded that most of the remaining companies will achieve Q2 revenues above the Q1 trough.

Another upswing is getting underway. The peak quarter for solar PV revenues was Q3:08, or about a year ago, ending a remarkable run up driven mainly by extremely generous feed-in tariff subsidies in Germany and Spain.

Volumes of panels installed roughly doubled from 2007 to 2008. The Spanish subsidies were capped after it became apparent that country could not afford the original subsidy program, and Germany made changes to phase down its subsidies more rapidly.

Mainly due to the Spanish program, and aggravated by the global recession and reduced credit availability, prices and volumes fell sharply in Q4 and again in Q1.
The solar companies were slow to react to the downturn, perhaps because so many of the companies in this sector are newly formed and have yet to experience a downturn.

Capital spending continued to grow in Q4 over Q3 and did not begin to drop until Q1. Inventories rose modestly in Q4 and especially steeply in Q1 as companies were slow to curtail production and cut prices. Prices for modules and cells have fallen by on the order of 30 percent to 50 percent, and we believe they are still eroding.

These price cuts have triggered some demand growth as solar energy has become more price competitive in areas with subsidy programs less generous than Spain and Germany (e.g., the US).

The capacity build up in both the principal raw material (polysilicon) and the various conversion steps (wafers, cells, and modules) was such that we do not expect producers to be able to raise prices for awhile.

Two of the hardest hit solar companies will report on 8/12/09. Consensus estimates look for a nearly 100 percent revenue gain Q1 to Q2 at JA Solar to $67 million (still well below the year-ago level of $180 million). There is unusually wide variability in the estimates for JASO though.

Revenue at LDK Solar is expected to fall about 21 percent from Q1:09 to $225 million, however. The company had issued a press release on 7/23 saying it expected revenues of $225-$235 for the Q2 and would be taking an inventory write off of $150 to $170 million. Before the 7/23/09 guidance, the company had estimated revenues of $215 to $225 million. The weak LDK results have thus been well telegraphed.

Ascent Solar exceeds 10pc CIGS module efficiency milestone

THORNTON, USA: Ascent Solar Technologies Inc., a developer of state-of-the-art flexible thin-film solar modules, announced that it has achieved its initial target module efficiency goal of 10 percent for its flexible Copper, Indium, Gallium, Selenide (CIGS) monolithically integrated modules.

The US Department of Energy’s National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) has independently verified that the modules measured as high as 10.4 percent in conversion efficiency. The modules tested at NREL were standard 429 cm2 modules produced by the company’s 1.5MW production line that was put into commercial production in the first quarter of 2009.

Dr. Prem Nath, Sr. Vice President of Production Operations for Ascent Solar, stated: “This is a significant breakthrough in demonstrating our ability to manufacture monolithically integrated flexible CIGS modules with greater than 10 percent module efficiency in commercial production. Ascent’s high-volume 30MW commercial plant is scheduled to commence initial production at the beginning of 2010.

"Module efficiency of 10 percent is a vital element for our low-cost-per-watt manufacturing goal in high volume and will establish Ascent Solar as a leader in the production of lightweight flexible photovoltaics used for portable power and building integrated photovoltaic (BIPV) products.”

Dr. Harin S. Ullal, Senior Project Manager for the National Center for Photovoltaics at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, stated: “Ascent Solar has made progress in advancing the state-of-the-art flexible, lightweight thin-film CIGS PV technology. NREL has independently verified module conversion efficiency of more than 10 percent for several thin-film CIGS monolithically integrated modules deposited on flexible, lightweight plastic substrates.”

Solar EnerTech in sales contract with German system integrator

MENLO PARK, USA: Solar EnerTech Corp. has entered into a 10MW contract to deliver its solar modules to Solarzentrum Allgau, one of the leading solar system integrators in Germany.

The total shipment value to Solarzentrum Allgau under the contract is approximately $20 million. Shipments, aimed for solar power installations in Germany, are scheduled to begin immediately and will be delivered throughout the current calendar year.

Solarzentrum Allgau was founded in 1985 in Altdorf, Germany. The company has benefitted from Germany's introduction of the Renewable Energy Sources Act in March 2000 and has grown its operations through its specialization of sale, assembly and installation of PV systems.

The company is also the founder of an information and advisory center about solar energy in the county of Allg?u. Its President, Willi Bihler is considered a visionary in the field for his innovations in solar power installation.

Leo Young, CEO of Solar EnerTech, commented: "This is an exciting new project for Solar EnerTech which can accelerate our financial performance for this calendar year. It shows that our strategy of enhancing our operating facility and improving our product efficiency is paying off."

"The quality of our solar modules are well known to Solarzentrum Allgau as we have served as a supplier to their rooftop projects in the past. Our high-quality, efficient and reliable products continue to garner increased attention among many well-known PV system integrators, which has improved our competitive advantage in winning new contracts."

Willi Bihler, Proprietor of Solarzentrum Allgau commented: "Solar EnerTech's solar products and support services meet the criteria for high quality and performance that we demand from our suppliers. When we encounter some technical issues during our installations, Solar EnerTech's team is always available to assist us with the appropriate solutions. We look forward to further developing our relationship with Solar EnerTech and believe that through their support, we have a compelling opportunity to gain a larger share of the German market going forward."

Solar PV capex cuts will ease capacity growth in time for recovery

USA: Much like the boom-to-bust IC industry in recent decades, manufacturers of solar-energy cells and thin films are having a difficult time matching investments for new production capacity with the recessionary and recovery throes of the fledgling photovoltaic (PV)-device market, based on the analysis in a new 2009 report from IC Insights: Solar Energy: Growth Opportunities for the Semiconductor Industry.

The mismatch of photovoltaic capacity expansions and slumping market demand is underscored by the expected 32 percent increase in global PV production capacity in 2009 despite a forecasted 22 percent decline in solar system installations this year, according to the new report.Source: IC Insights

Although PV-device manufacturers made known their intentions in late 2008 to trim capital spending, many of the top suppliers have been unable to abruptly halt those expenditures in 2009. Consequently, global PV solar-device production capacity is expected to rise 32 percent in 2009 to a total output capable of generating 11.5 gigawatts of electricity.

This follows a 69 percent increase in installed photovoltaic cell and thin-film (TF) plant capacity in 2008 to 8.7GW, says IC Insights' new report. Cuts in capital spending will slow capacity expansion to just 15 percent in 2010, but that will come when the solar market begins to recover with a 37 percent growth in system installations next year, based on the repor's 2009-2013 forecast.

In 2010, IC Insights believes that capex spending levels for PV cell and TF module capacity will fall further than the 23 percent decline forecast for 2009 as producers confront rising inventory stockpiles and plummeting capacity utilization.

The report shows global solar PV cell and TF capital expenditures falling 40 percent in 2010 to about $680 million from $1.13 billion in 2009, excluding capex on assembly of cell-based modules and panels. However, solar PV capital expenditures will begin a steady recovery in 2011, rising 13 percent that year to $772 million but surging 74 percent in 2012 to $1.34 billion, based on IC Insights' five-year forecast (see Fig. 1).

With PV manufacturers unable to abruptly curb additions to production plants, capacity utilization rates for solar devices are forecast to plummet from 83 percent in 2008 to 54 percent in 2009 and to 52 percent in 2010.

However, IC Insights is forecasting a steady rise in plant capacity utilization to 63 percent in 2011 and to 82 percent in 2013. The efforts to achieve high levels of capacity utilization will stretch out to the end of the forecast period and will be an important contributor to the industry's reduction of the cost per watt of solar systems.

The new 2009 solar report estimates that plants in mainland China and Taiwan accounted for 39 percent of total global PV device production in 2008, with European production at 28 percent of the worldwide total and Japan 16 percent. US producers captured only 10 percent of the total in 2008, based on IC Insights' data.

President Obama's remarks on renewable energy -- We come for the sun!

Here's the release on US President Barack Obama's remarks on alterative energy. It is also posted on the White House web site.


NEVADA, USA: Thank you so much. Everybody please have a seat. Thank you so much.

I've got some special acknowledgments that I have to make. First of all, we've got some members of the congressional delegation Nevada who are doing outstanding jobs not only for Nevada but also for the men and women in uniform. So please give a warm welcome to Congresswoman Shelley Berkley. Congresswoman Dina Titus. And we're in his district, he couldn't be here, but Congressman Dean Heller, please give him a big round of applause.

I also want to thank the State Controller, Kim Wallin, for her great work. The Nevada Secretary of State, Ross Miller. Nevada State Treasurer, Kate Marshall. I want to thank the Brigadier General, Stanley Kresge, for the wonderful, outstanding work that he does, as well as Colonel Dave Belote, who just gave me an outstanding tour of the solar panel facility out here.

But mainly I want to thank all of you, the men and women in uniform, for your service to our country. We're grateful to you. Thank you.

I just spoke to a handful of your commanders here. I know some are about to be deployed to Iraq and Afghanistan, many have just come back. The fact that you serve each and every day to keep us safe is something that every American is grateful for. And so if I don't do anything else as your Commander-in-Chief, I'm going to make sure that we're there for you just as you've been there for us. So thank you very much.

Finally, let me acknowledge Senator Reid, not just for the generous introduction, not only because he's been a great friend, not only because he's been an outstanding Majority Leader, but also because of everything that he's done for the people of Nevada and for the armed services. He is somebody who has never forgotten his roots. After all these years, he still brings the voices and values of Searchlight, Nevada to the nation's most important debates in Washington, D.C. -- and we are better off because he does. So please give Harry Reid a big round of applause.

You know, it's always a pleasure to get out of Washington a little bit. Washington is okay, but it's nice taking some time to talk to Americans of every walk of life outside of the nation's capital. And there's nothing like a quick trip to Vegas in the middle of the week. Like millions of other Americans, we come to this beautiful city for the sights and for the sounds -- and today, we come for the sun.

Because right now, we're standing near the largest solar electric plant of its kind in the entire Western Hemisphere -- the entire Western Hemisphere. More than 72,000 solar panels built on part of an old landfill provide 25 percent of the electricity for the 12,000 people who live and work here at Nellis. That's the equivalent of powering about 13,200 homes during the day.

It's a project that took about half a year to complete, created 200 jobs, and will save the United States Air Force, which is the largest consumer of energy in the federal government, nearly $1 million -- $1 million a year. It will also reduce harmful carbon pollution by 24,000 tons per year, which is the equivalent of removing 4,000 cars from our roads. Most importantly, this base serves as a shining example of what's possible when we harness the power of clean, renewable energy to build a new, firmer foundation for economic growth.

Now, that's the kind of foundation we're trying to build all across America. One hundred days ago, in the midst of the worst economic crisis in half a century, we passed the most sweeping economic recovery act in history -- a plan designed to save jobs, create new ones, and put money in people's pockets. It's a plan designed not only to revive the economy in the short term, but to rebuild the economy over the long term. It's a plan that we passed thanks to the tireless efforts of Harry Reid and Congresswoman Berkley and Congresswoman Titus and all the other outstanding public servants in Washington.

But if it hadn't been for Harry Reid -- because the Senate is tough -- moving this Recovery Act through Congress with the skill and tenacity and urgency of somebody who knows the struggles that millions of people are going through, we would have not gotten it done. So I am eternally grateful to him and the other members of the congressional delegation for helping to pass this plan.

And 100 days later, we're already seeing results. And today, we're releasing a report that details the progress that we've made in every region of the country.

In these last few months, the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act has saved or created nearly 150,000 jobs -- jobs building solar panels and wind turbines, making homes and buildings more energy efficient. They're the jobs of teachers and police officers and nurses who have not been laid off as a consequence of this Recovery Act. They're the jobs fixing roads and bridges, jobs at start-ups and small businesses, and jobs that will put thousands of young Americans to work this summer.

Also in the Recovery Act, by the way, is all sorts of construction taking place on bases just like Nellis to support military families, and I know that that is something that Michelle Obama has taken a lot of time looking into; that's something that I'm spending a lot of time thinking about. We want to make sure that our bases and our facilities are the best in the world for our best troops.

Ninety-five percent of all working families saw their take-home pay increase because of the tax cut that we provided in the Recovery Act. Fifty-four million seniors received $250 extra in their Social Security checks. Laid-off workers have received greater unemployment benefits and paid less for their health care.

For the thousands of families whose homes have been made more energy efficient, it's also saved them about $350 on their energy bills. Other Americans saved thousands by taking advantage of the tax credits the Recovery Act has provided for the purchase of a new home, or a new fuel-efficient car, or energy-efficient cooling and heating systems, windows, and insulation. And all of this has helped to fuel demand that is helping businesses put more Americans back to work.

But this is just the beginning. There are still too many Americans out of work, and too many who still worry that their job may be next. There are still too many families struggling to pay the bills, and too many businesses struggling to keep their doors open. And that's why we will continue to implement the Recovery Act as quickly and effectively as possible over the next two years.

We're just at the start of this Recovery Act. We are going to keep on going through this year and into next year, because we are going to make sure that not only are we putting people back to work, but we're laying the foundation for a better economy. And that's why my administration will continue an unrelenting, day-by-day effort to fight for economic recovery on all fronts.

Now, I just want to emphasize, even as we clear away some of the wreckage and debris of this extraordinary recession, I've also said that our next task is making sure that this doesn't happen again. We can't return to the same bubble-and-bust economy, borrow-and-spend economy based on maxed-out credit cards and overleveraged banks and financial profits that were only real on paper -- see, that young lady agrees with me. We have to lay a new foundation for prosperity -- a foundation constructed on the pillars that will grow our economy and help America compete in the 21st century.

And a renewable energy revolution is one of those pillars. We know the cost of our oil addiction all too well. It's the cost measured by the billions of dollars we send to nations with unstable or unfriendly regimes. We help to fund both sides of the war on terror because of our addiction to oil. It's the cost of our vulnerability to the volatility of the oil markets. It's the cost we feel in shifting weather patterns that are already causing unprecedented droughts and more intense storms. It's a cost we can't bear any longer.

Today, projects like the one at Nellis are still the exception to the rule, unfortunately. America produces less than 3 percent of our electricity through renewable sources of energy like wind and solar -- less than 3 percent. In contrast, Denmark produces 20 percent of their electricity through wind. We pioneered solar technology, but we've fallen behind countries like Germany and Japan in generating it, even though they get less sun than we do. They certainly get less sun than Nevada.

So we've got a choice. We can remain the world's leading importer of oil, sending our money and our wealth away, or we can become the world's leading exporter of clean energy. We can hand over the jobs of the future to our competitors, or we can confront what they've already recognized as the great opportunity of our time: The nation that leads the world in creating new sources of clean energy will be the nation that leads the 21st-century global economy. And that's the nation I want America to be and I know that's the nation you want America to be.

Already, we've made more progress on this front in the last four months than we have in the last three decades. Last week, I brought auto executives, labor unions, environmental groups, Democrats, and Republicans together to set the toughest-ever national fuel-efficiency standard for our cars and trucks -- a standard that will save 1.8 billion barrels of oil over the lifetime of the vehicles sold in the next five years.

In Congress, leaders like Harry Reid are also working to pass a historic energy plan that will help end our dependence on foreign oil while preventing the worst consequences of climate change. It's a system -- it's a plan that will create a system of clean energy incentives that will create good, American jobs and crack down on polluters who pollute the air we breathe and the water we drink.

Finally, by the end of the next two years, the Recovery Act will have enabled a doubling of our nation's capacity to generate renewable energy by investing in projects just like the one on this Air Force base. And today, I'm announcing the availability of funding for two Recovery Act programs that will help us reach that goal.

The first is a solar energy technologies program that will help replicate the success of the Nellis project in cities and states across America -- because in this case, what happens in Vegas should not stay in Vegas. We want everybody to know what we're doing here in Vegas. We'll invest in the development and deployment of solar technology wherever it can thrive and we'll find the best ways to integrate solar power into our electric grid.

The second program I'm announcing will help develop the use of geothermal energy in America. As many of you in Nevada know, geothermal energy is literally defined as "heat from the earth." This heat can then be harnessed as a clean, affordable, and reliable source of energy.

And already, Nevada has 17 industrial scale geothermal plants, and your capacity to generate this type of power is expected to increase in the next few years. The program we're announcing will help accelerate this process -- here, and across America. So this is something that we expect will -- (applause.) -- this will create more jobs, it will create more businesses, and more affordable electricity for the American people.

Now, from where we stand today, the road to economic recovery is still long. We've got a lot of work to do. There are a lot of folks who are still hurting out there. And the road to a new, clean energy economy is even longer. We're not going to do it overnight. But after four months of this administration and 100 days of this Recovery Act, we have carved out a path toward progress. It's a path that begins in places just like this Air Force base, where ordinary citizens tap into their sense of innovation and ingenuity to reinvent the world around them.

This base has been known as "The Home of the Fighter Pilot." Now it's the home of the largest solar energy installation of its kind in the Western Hemisphere. And by the way, the two concepts are connected because it is good for our national security if we've got more control over our own energy use.

And that's the story that will be told all across America, in cities and towns, where a shuttered factory reopens to build wind turbines; where a hospital treats patients with new technology and pulls up their history with new electronic records; where a young entrepreneur with a nest egg and a good idea starts a business and creates more jobs.

That's how we move America forward. This is how we've always moved forward. It happens slowly, in fits and starts, but it always happens surely when we are dedicated to bringing about change. It happens not by chance or by luck, but because the American people keep pushing ahead -- persevering through hardship, growing through challenge, building something firmer and stronger in place of what was.

That's the work we've begun in these last few months, and with your help, this is the work we will continue to do in the days and months ahead.

For all of you who are serving in our armed forces, we want to make sure that our civilians are mobilizing and working on behalf of this country just as ably as you are. We salute you, we thank you. Thank you, everybody. God bless you, God bless the United States of America. Thank you.

Linde to supply supply high purity gases to Italy’s first thin-film solar cell plant

MUNICH, GERMANY: Linde Gases, a division of The Linde Group, announced that it has been awarded the exclusive contract to supply high purity gases to Italy’s first thin-film solar module manufacturing plant. The Moncada Energy Group s.r.l., a leading private producer of renewable energy in Italy, is building the plant in Campofranco (Sicily).

Under this agreement, Linde Gas Italia, a member of The Linde Group, will provide Moncada with turnkey installation of the plant’s bulk and specialty gases supply systems. On an ongoing basis, it will also deliver nitrogen (N2), hydrogen (H2), silane (SiH4) and chamber cleaning gases which are essential to making thin-film solar cells.

“Linde Gas Italia is excited to partner with Moncada to expand Italy's growing infrastructure of renewable energy installations,” said Fabrizio Elia, CEO of Linde Gas Italia. “Our collaboration with Moncada echoes our commitment to deliver innovative environmentally friendly processes, and it also builds on our aim to make solar energy more affordable for mass consumption –- at par with the grid.”

Linde was selected based on its proven supply capability and strong global market position in turnkey solutions for thin-film solar module manufacturing. Its established R&D programme, which is focused on reducing production costs and delivering environmentally friendly solutions, was also key to the contract win. Linde has developed a process that can replace the powerful greenhouse gas nitrogen trifluoride (NF3) with pure fluorine (F2), which does not contribute to global warming.

Moncada’s thin-film PV plant in Campofranco, which becomes fully-operational in 2010, will produce large 5.7m2 single junction photovoltaic modules. The facility is expected to have an annual output capacity of 40MWp.

“Moncada’s mission is to enable the environmentally friendly and cost-effective production and installation of solar panels. Linde’s proven technology expertise mirrors our ambition to quickly achieve grid parity in Italy,” said Salvatore Moncada, CEO and founder of Moncada Energy Group. “Partnering with experts from The Linde Group and Applied Materials, Moncada is firmly placed to fuel the boom phase for renewable energy in Italy.”

Linde is the leading supplier of fluorine, producing it on-site, on-demand and at very low pressures. Developed in the late 1990s, this proven technology has been installed at more than 20 semiconductor, LCD and solar cell production sites, including Toshiba Matsushita Display, Samsung, and LG.

Oerlikon Solar receives Micromorph master certificate

SNEC SHANGHAI, CHINA: Oerlikon Solar has passed all tests required for its Micromorph thin-film silicon solar PV modules to receive TÜV Rheinland's IEC certification.

The TÜV master certificate enables Oerlikon Solar's customers to accelerate their own IEC certification process, reducing time-to-market for certified high-performance modules from six months to less than six weeks. The certification is valid worldwide and is just one part of the established portfolio of solutions Oerlikon Solar offers its customers to enable rapid ramp-ups to mass production of thin-film solar PV modules.

"Oerlikon Solar enables its customers to significantly reduce their time to market for IEC certified modules, and guarantees leading module performance with the highest levels of reliability and cost-effective processes," said Jeannine Sargent, CEO of Oerlikon Solar.

Oerlikon successfully completed both IEC 61646 (Module Performance Test) and IEC 61730 (Module Safety Test). TÜV Rheinland, recognized globally for its module certification, put the modules through months of rigorous testing before issuing the IEC master certificate. Accelerated life tests for climate (changing of climates, coldness, warmth, humidity) and UV exposure were conducted in addition to mechanical impact tests (hail, wind suction, wind pressure, snow). All tests were passed successfully.

"We believe Oerlikon Solar is one of the premier equipment and module technology providers in the thin-film silicon solar PV market. They have proven their ability to scale a world-class technology and process to mass production, and passed all of our tests," states Willi Vaassen, Head of Renewable Energy division, TÜV Rheinland.

Leading efficiency and power output
Oerlikon's tandem-junction Micromorph process improves solar cell efficiency by up to 50 percent and increases overall module power, offering a key competitive advantage for solar PV manufacturers.

The Micromorph process significantly boosts solar cell efficiency by adding a second microcrystalline absorber to the amorphous silicon (a-Si) layer. This layer converts the energy of the red- and near-infrared spectrum, yielding efficiency gains of up to 50 percent.

The Micromorph technology also bolsters overall module power, enabling customers to produce high-performance thin-film silicon solar PV modules at competitive cost.

Unsurpassed time-to-market
In early 2008, Oerlikon Solar implemented the world's first Micromorph® production line at its customer Inventux in Berlin, Germany, and rapidly brought it to full production. "We were extremely impressed at how quickly and professionally Oerlikon Solar's expert team was able to ready our factory for mass production and further enhance module performance," said Volko Loewenstein, chairman of Inventux.

Oerlikon Solar is currently in the process of ramping four additional Micromorph® factories (Auria Solar, Chint, Heliosphera, Pramac), as well as two factories using its Amorph technology (Tianwei, Gadir). The combined 2009 ramp projects represent a production capacity of over 240 MWp globally bringing the cumulative shipped capacity of Oerlikon Solar to 600 MWp in the last two years.

Record performance and IEC certification
Just recently, Inventux announced record efficiencies achieved in real-time mass production. All panels where produced with Oerlikon Solar's proprietary Micromorph tandem junction technology. The 1.4 square-meter modules exceeded 9 percent stabilized efficiency during the course of high-volume production and reached over 120 watt power output.

On April 27, 2009, Inventux successfully passed all tests required for certification to IEC 61646 by TÜV Rheinland. This achievement reflects the first for a European based manufacturer of tandem thin film silicon modules.

Expanding customer and partner relationships
A growing number of global customers are ramping up Oerlikon Solar's leading thin-film solar PV technology. Recent sales to customers include Tianwei and Chint (Mainland China), Sun Well Solar and Auria Solar Co. Ltd. (Taiwan), Inventux, ersol Thin Film GmbH, SCHOTT Solar AG (Germany), Pramac SpA (Italy), Gadir Solar (Spain) and Heliosphera (Greece).

Oerlikon Solar has significant partnerships with leading industrial partners such as Tokyo Electron (sales and customer service) and Flextronics (manufacturing) to guarantee comprehensive customer service and support and rapid scalability throughout different geographies.